
Scoring Percentages and Stacking
SEA
- Avg Score: 7.32
- 8+ runs: 44.40%
- Opp SP: Ken Waldichuk
- DK Team Own%: 101.41, DK LevX: 5.00%
- FD Team Own%: 85.03, FD LevX: -1.50%
LAD
- Avg Score: 6.84
- 8+ runs: 40.60%
- Opp SP: Bryce Elder
- DK Team Own%: 36.03, DK LevX: 25.00%
- FD Team Own%: 38.42, FD LevX: 25.00%
ATL
- Avg Score: 6.73
- 8+ runs: 38.80%
- Opp SP: Tony Gonsolin
- DK Team Own%: 39.2, DK LevX: 21.50%
- FD Team Own%: 37.5, FD LevX: 25.00%
KC
- Avg Score: 6.15
- 8+ runs: 33.00%
- Opp SP: Matthew Boyd
- DK Team Own%: 53.96, DK LevX: 11.50%
- FD Team Own%: 53.46, FD LevX: 8.50%
NYM
- Avg Score: 6.07
- 8+ runs: 31.80%
- Opp SP: Marcus Stroman
- DK Team Own%: 23.4, DK LevX: 21.50%
- FD Team Own%: 33, FD LevX: 18.50%
SEA, LAD, ATL, KC, and NYM all have high percentages of games in which they score 8 or more runs, which suggests that they often perform well offensively and could offer potential value for stacking in daily fantasy sports (DFS). Their high average scores further reinforce their offensive capabilities.
Additionally, each of these teams' ownership percentages on DraftKings and FanDuel is relatively high, indicating that these teams are popular among DFS players. High ownership, along with strong offensive performance, could lead to valuable points in DFS contests.
The DK LevX and FD LevX values represent the leverage that a team offers on the respective platform. Positive LevX scores indicate that the team is under-owned relative to their scoring potential. Among these teams, LAD, ATL, KC, and NYM all show positive LevX scores on both platforms, suggesting they could provide an edge in contests due to being under-owned.
However, SEA has a negative FD LevX score of -1.50%, indicating that they are over-owned relative to their scoring potential on FanDuel. While this doesn't necessarily eliminate them as a viable option for stacking, it does suggest that DFS players may need to find additional ways to differentiate their lineups when including SEA to gain a competitive advantage.
DK Pitcher Options
Bryce Miller
- Bryce Miller, who plays for the Seattle Mariners, has a salary of 10100, with the highest median score of 20.08 in the dataset.
- He has a remarkable top_finish percentage of 35.10% and a Top_5_finish percentage of 65.50%.
- In terms of Large Field Own%, Miller clocks in at 37.51%, which is lower than the average Large Field Own% of the dataset, meaning he may be a slightly less popular choice among players in larger fields.
- However, his Small Field Own% is impressive at 62.52%, far above the average Small Field Own% of the dataset, suggesting he is a favourite among small field players.
James Paxton
- Playing for the Boston Red Sox, James Paxton has a salary of 8900 and a solid median score of 17.83.
- His top_finish and Top_5_finish percentages are at 15.20% and 40.70% respectively.
- Paxton's Large Field Own% is identical to his Small Field Own% at 9.70%. Both percentages are identical to the average Own% for each field type, showing he is chosen equally among small and large field players.
Sandy Alcantara
- Miami Marlins player Sandy Alcantara, with a salary of 8300, brings in a median score of 15.54.
- His top_finish percentage is 5.40% and his Top_5_finish percentage is 24.10%.
- Alcantara's Large Field Own% is 21.68%, slightly higher than the average Large Field Own% of the dataset, whereas his Small Field Own% is 20.15%, slightly lower than the average Small Field Own%.
Nestor Cortes
- Nestor Cortes, playing for the New York Yankees, comes with a salary of 8100 and a median score of 15.14.
- He has a top_finish percentage of 3.30% and a Top_5_finish percentage of 20.50%.
- Cortes' Large Field Own% is quite high at 64.74%, significantly above the dataset average, suggesting that he is a popular choice among large field players. His Small Field Own% is also high at 56.03%.
Karl Kauffmann
- Karl Kauffmann of the Colorado Rockies has a salary of 5000 and a median score of 14.55.
- He has a top_finish percentage of 2.40% and a Top_5_finish percentage of 16.20%.
- Interestingly, Kauffmann's Large and Small Field Own% are the same, at 0.95%. This is significantly below the dataset average, indicating that he might be an underdog or less popular pick among players.
These players have demonstrated great performance metrics and consistently high scores, which make them strong bets to perform well in future games. An interesting outlier is Karl Kauffmann, who, despite his lower salary and Own% metrics, has still managed to attain a high median score. His low Own% could present an opportunity for savvy players to capitalize on a less popular yet effective choice. However, it is important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results, and all factors should be considered when making selections.
FD Pitcher Options
Bryce Miller (SEA, $10,900)
- Top_finish: 49.60%
- Top_5_finish: 84.30%
- Large Field Own%: 18.82% (+1.37% compared to the average Large Field Own%)
- Small Field Own%: 16.72% (+0.27% compared to the average Small Field Own%)
James Paxton (BOS, $10,400)
- Top_finish: 18.40%
- Top_5_finish: 65.90%
- Large Field Own%: 2.43% (-14.97% compared to the average Large Field Own%)
- Small Field Own%: 2.43% (-13.92% compared to the average Small Field Own%)
Sandy Alcantara (MIA, $8,900)
- Top_finish: 10.10%
- Top_5_finish: 53.80%
- Large Field Own%: 8.37% (-9.13% compared to the average Large Field Own%)
- Small Field Own%: 7.13% (-9.22% compared to the average Small Field Own%)
Kodai Senga (NYM, $9,600)
- Top_finish: 5.70%
- Top_5_finish: 43.50%
- Large Field Own%: 51.82% (+34.27% compared to the average Large Field Own%)
- Small Field Own%: 44.22% (+27.77% compared to the average Small Field Own%)
Nestor Cortes (NYY, $8,300)
- Top_finish: 6.40%
- Top_5_finish: 44.70%
- Large Field Own%: 27.22% (+9.67% compared to the average Large Field Own%)
- Small Field Own%: 23.73% (+7.28% compared to the average Small Field Own%)
All of these players are excellent bets to perform well due to their high Median scores and strong Top_finish and Top_5_finish percentages. They are more likely to outperform other players and therefore, could be valuable additions to a team. Kodai Senga of the NYM stands out particularly, with an exceptionally high Large Field Own% of 51.82%, far above the average of 17.55%, indicating a higher level of confidence among participants in his performance. Conversely, James Paxton's Large Field Own% is significantly lower than the average, which could be a result of his relatively lower Top_finish and Top_5_finish percentages, suggesting that he may be a riskier choice despite his high Median score.
True AVG breakdown
The top 5 players with the lowest (Best) Weighted True AVG scores are:
Karl Kauffmann (COL)
- Significant difference between True AVG (LHH) and True AVG (RHH): 0.282 vs 0.126
- Weighted True AVG is 0.146, significantly below the average of the dataset
- Facing 2 Opp LHH and 6 Opp RHH
James Paxton (BOS)
- Small difference between True AVG (LHH) and True AVG (RHH): 0.248 vs 0.227
- Weighted True AVG is 0.229, slightly below the average of the dataset
- Facing 1 Opp LHH and 8 Opp RHH
Kodai Senga (NYM)
- Moderate difference between True AVG (LHH) and True AVG (RHH): 0.258 vs 0.207
- Weighted True AVG is 0.235, close to the average of the dataset
- Facing 5 Opp LHH and 4 Opp RHH
Nestor Cortes (NYY)
- Significant difference between True AVG (LHH) and True AVG (RHH): 0.288 vs 0.223
- Weighted True AVG is 0.238, close to the average of the dataset
- Facing 2 Opp LHH and 7 Opp RHH
Sandy Alcantara (MIA)
- Small difference between True AVG (LHH) and True AVG (RHH): 0.223 vs 0.256
- Weighted True AVG is 0.238, close to the average of the dataset
- Facing 5 Opp LHH and 4 Opp RHH
All five of these players have solid Weighted True AVG scores, demonstrating their overall efficiency in maintaining low batting averages allowed, a key factor in contributing to their teams' success. Karl Kauffmann stands out with the lowest Weighted True AVG of 0.146, far below the average, indicating his exceptional performance. Interestingly, he also has a significant difference between his True AVG (LHH) and True AVG (RHH), which could be attributed to his right-handed pitching style. James Paxton, though a left-handed pitcher, shows little difference between his True AVG (LHH) and True AVG (RHH), indicating his balanced performance against both left and right-handed hitters. Based on these baselines and matchups, these players have strong potential to perform well in their upcoming games.