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Paydirt CFB DFS Triple Option 09.30.2023

Welcome to the CFB DFS Triple Option here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the CFB DFS slate. This article is NOT used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

DFS Slate Overview

  • Slate ownership is focused on Ashton Jeanty and Blake Watson (RB) from either side of the BSU/MEM game Both are projected for over 60% ownership. At the quarterback position, Caleb Williams leads the way with 34.50% ownership. Due to Williams high price, ownership is inflated on cheaper Qbs to pair with him like Taylen Green and Hudson Card. The spotlight at wide receiver is on Isaiah Williams (WR, IL) with 34.50% ownership against PUR. His projected median of 18.31 and a salary of $5700 underline the balance he brings to the roster, making him a strong small field and cash play.
  • BSU and MEM look like the chalk stacks given the high ownership across their teams. However, the ownership is heavily concentrated on QB/RB so playing the pass catchers could be a good way to differentiate the stack. Purdue also looks popular with Hudson Card and his two primary receivers. UT deserves GPP consideration in what a potential high-upside spot versus Kansas.
  • Ashton Jeanty (RB, BSU) and Blake Watson (RB, MEM) are clearly the chalk with ownership percentages at 66.78% and 61.79% respectively, and high median projections. However, Cam Skattebo has just as much upside at significantly less ownership. Similarly, Jeremiah Hunter makes a strong pivot off of Isaiah Williams.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

CFB Cash Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.

QB: Caleb Williams
RB: Ashton Jeanty
WR1: Isaiah Williams
WR2: Brock Bowers
Flex: Blake Watson

CFB GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

QB: Luke Altmyer
RB: Cam Skattebo
WR1: Jeremiah Hunter
WR2: Roc Taylor
Flex: Ray Davis

DFS Stack Considerations

Colorado University (CU)
University of Texas (UT)
University of Memphis (MEM)

CFB DFS Final Thoughts

Creating a balanced lineup with a mix of high and low-salary players can offer a diversified point source. While high-salary players like Caleb Williams (USC) can be foundational pieces due to their high median projections, the inclusion of value plays is crucial to accommodate salary constraints. Furthermore, the same can be said of balancing high and low-owned players. Cam Skattebo, Ray Davis look like strong GPP options at the RB position, while the COL receivers represent high-upside at low-ownership. Additionally, COL, UT and ASU/CAL are potential stacking opportunities to gain leverage.

GL and let's bake some bread!

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Paydirt NFL DFS Play Action Week 4

Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

Chalk DFS Plays:

  • Kyren Williams (21.72%)
  • Pat Freiermuth (18.06%)
  • Adam Thielen (16.93%)
  • Tony Pollard (16.85%)
  • Miles Sanders (16.41%)

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams is expected to be the highest owned player on the slate at 21.72% ownership. There's noticeable void of alternative choices within the RB position. Miles Sanders will also be popular which leaves Zack Moss as the only true RB pivot. However, at the FLEX spot comparably priced receivers like DeAndre Hopkins or Brandon Aiyuk, who have lower ownerships of 4.00% and 2.87% respectively, can offer a distinct edge.

Pat Freiermuth

Freiermuth is inexplicably projected to be 18% owned and looks like the worst piece of chalk on the slate by a wide margin. His median projection, ceiling, and Top Finish% are all mediocre at best. Furthermore, there are 7 viable pivots at his position.

Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen looks like solid chalk at his price point. Tank Dell projects to be almost as highly owned and a lot of optimizers are putting them together in lineups. Elijah Moore would be a pivot we could consider but the QB situation for Cleveland is questionable.

Tony Pollard

Similar to Kyren Williams, there are no pivots to Pollard at the RB position. However, at the FLEX there are several receiver options with lower ownership. Ja'Maar Chase rates as a better play outright, while CeeDee Lamb provides direct leverage. Lastly, AJ Brown and Jaylen Waddle can also be considered.

Miles Sanders

Miles Sanders being “good” versus “bad” chalk likely depends where you play him. At the RB spot the only real pivot is Rachaad White, or Zack Moss who projects slightly worse. However, at the FLEX there are several low owned receivers options that project better and with higher ceilings.

DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts

Kyren Williams and Adam Thielen are more roster-dependent plays on this slate. Both can be integrated into lower-owned roster constructions but consider pivoting if your lineup is already saturated with high-owned players, to maintain a balanced approach. Tony Pollard and Miles Sanders look fine at their position, but there are multiple pivots with comparably priced receivers. Lastly, Pat Freiermuth is awful chalk.

Good luck and let's bake some bread!

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  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
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Paydirt CFB DFS Triple Option 09.29.2023

Welcome to the CFB DFS Triple Option here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the CFB DFS slate. This article is NOT used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

DFS Slate Overview

  • Slate ownership is highlighted by a substantial focus on Torrance Burgess Jr. (RB) from UTEP, projected for 73.90% ownership against LT. At the quarterback position, Brennan Armstrong from NCST and Emory Jones from CINCY stand out with 46.80% and 52.30% ownership respectively. The spotlight at wide receiver is on Smoke Harris (LT) with 49.10% ownership against UTEP. His projected median of 17.83 and a salary of $6800 underline the balance he brings to the roster, blending reliability with affordability.
  • UL and BYU look like the chalk stacks given the high ownership across their teams. However, playing Jake Plummer in a UL stack given his lower ownership is a good way to get different. LT also deserves GPP consideration.
  • LJ Martin (RB) is projected for a staggering 62% ownership despite a middling median projection. Damien Martinez and Jaylon Glover both look like great GPP pivots at significantly lower ownership and similar median projection.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

CFB Cash Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.

QB: Brennan Armstrong
RB: Torrence Burgess Jr.
WR1: Jamari Thrash
WR2: Smoke Harris
Flex: Jawhar Jordan

CFB GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

QB: Jack Turner
RB: Jaylon Glover
WR1: Kevin Concepcion
WR2: Tyrin Smith
Flex: Damien Martinez

DFS Stack Considerations

Louisiana Tech (LT)
North Carolina State (NCST)
University of Louisville (UL)

CFB DFS Final Thoughts

While stacking high ownership players with high median projections can provide a solid floor, it might not offer a unique lineup in large field tournaments. Therefore, diversification with lower-owned players is crucial to gain an edge. Isaac Rex at 61% projected ownership presents a great leverage opportunity. You can play either of his teammates Chase Roberts or Darius Lassiter at far less ownership. Additionally, while both LT receivers are projecting to be high-owned the QB is going low-owned. Thus, LT is one of the best GPP stacks on the slate.

GL and let's bake some bread!

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  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
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Paydirt CFB DFS Triple Option 09.23.2023

Welcome to the CFB DFS Triple Option here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the CFB DFS slate. This article is NOT used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

DFS Slate Overview

  • Slate ownership is highlighted by a substantial focus on Rasheen Ali (RB) from MRSHL, boasting a 46.63% ownership projection. At the quarterback position, Chandler Morris (TCU) emerges as a noteworthy option against SMU, with 31.96% projected ownership and an impressive median of 26.71 at $7.8k. The spotlight at wide receiver is on Troy Franklin of ORE, who remains a preferred choice against COL in what should be a high-scoring affair.
  • TCU, TTU and ORE appear to be popular stacking options today, given the high ownership at different positions from these teams. However, COL, UL, and Cincy all deserve consideration in GPPs.
  • Bucky Irving (RB) from ORE will be another chalk play, projected for 35.83% ownership and a median of 22.34 against COL. However, for those looking to pivot from high ownership, considering less-owned yet promising options like Blake Corum at only 4.25% ownership and a median of 20.65.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

CFB Cash Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.

QB: Chandler Morris
RB: Rasheen Ali
WR1: Jamari Thrash
WR2: Troy Franklin
Flex: Devin Neal

CFB GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

QB: Shedeur Sanders
RB: Blake Corum
WR1: Xzavier Henderson
WR2: Xavier Weaver
Flex: Will Shipley

DFS Stack Considerations

Colorado (COL)
Cincinatti (CINCY)
University of Louisville (UL)

CFB DFS Final Thoughts

Today sets up to be a strong GPP slate due to there being multiple options in good spots but pretty concentrated ownership. COL looks like an amazing GPP play as ownership is heavily focused on ORE on the other side of the matchup. Additionally, the QB/RB/WR for UL all have solid median projections and reasonable ownership but will be overlooked as a stack. Lastly, Emory Jones and Xzavier Henderson make a solid skinny stack with ownership low enough to allow you to play the chalk.

GL and let's bake some bread!

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  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
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  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.
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Paydirt NFL DFS Play Action Week 3

Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

Chalk DFS Plays:

  • Jerome Ford (26.73%)
  • Justin Jefferson (25.17%)
  • Keenan Allen (19.32%)
  • Kenneth Walker III (17.09%)
  • Nico Collins (16.98%)

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Jerome Ford

Jerome Ford is expected to be the highest owned player on the slate after a gruesome injury ended Nick Chubb's season. Despite there being several pivot options, none of them are at the RB position. Therefore, if going with a cheap RB construction you'll likely want to just eat the chalk. However, if it is the Flex spot you can get different by playing similarly priced receivers.

Justin Jefferson

Jefferson stands alone this week. Given the constraints of within +/- $300 salary and +/- 3 points of median projection, there is no pivot to Jefferson. That said, Tyreek Hill is within a point of median projection of meeting the pivot requirements so he would be the option.

Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen sits atop his price range, but unlike Jefferson there are some viable pivots. Amon-Ra and CeeDee Lamb have similar median projections and Top Finish% to Allen at a fraction of the ownership. Bijan Robinson can also be considered but has a lower ceiling.

Kenneth Walker III

Kenneth Walker looks like pretty bad chalk this week. James Cook and James Conner look like similar plays with significantly less ownership. Furthermore, Raheem Mostert rates as the clear top play in this range and psition

Nico Collins

Nico Collins doesn't necessarily rate poorly, however, there are several guys with better projections. Terry McLaurin, Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, and Michael Thomas not only project higher than Nico, but have higher ceilings and Top Finish% as well.

DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts

Jerome Ford and Keenan Allen are more roster dependent plays. If your build calls for a cheap RB you should probably just play Ford. However, if it's a cheap Flex option there are pivots available. Similarly, Keenan Allen can be plugged in to lower-owned roster builds but pivot if you're playing other high-owned players. Lastly, Jordan Addison can give you some 2 for 1 differentiation. Not only is Addison a pivot off of Nico Collins, but he's also direct leverage off of Justin Jefferson.

Good luck and let's bake some bread!

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  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
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  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

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Paydirt CFB DFS Triple Option 09.22.2023

Welcome to the CFB DFS Triple Option here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the CFB DFS slate. This article is NOT used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

DFS Slate Overview

  • Slate ownership appears to focus on Ashton Jeanty (RB) boasting a dominant 92.10% DK Ownership projection. Additionally, Braelon Allen (RB) from WISC is gaining significant attention, claiming 57.20% DK Ownership despite his elevated salary of $7900. The UV receivers, Malachi Fields, and Malik Washington, with ownership of 56.70% and 48.30% respectively, are also likely to be chalk plays today.
  • Purdue (PUR) is emerging as a popular stack due to the presence of players like Hudson Card (QB), Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen (WR), and Deion Burks (WR), all showcasing notable ownership. Hudson’s strong median projection and reasonable salary could make PUR stacks notably popular. In GPPs, University of Virginia (UV), and North Carolina State (NCST) both deserve consideration.
  • Braelon Allen will be popular, however, his volatile performances indicate a high-risk, high-reward situation given the split backfield. With a substantial portion of the field expected to jam him in, a pivot to Chez Mellusi with less ownership and salary may be the move in GPPs.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

CFB Cash Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.

QB: Hudson Card
RB: Ashton Jeanty
WR1: Deion Burks
WR2: Malachi Fields
Flex: Braelon Allen

CFB GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

QB: Taylen Green
RB: Chez Mellusi
WR1: Nick Nash
WR2: Eric McAlister
Flex: Emmanuel Michel

DFS Stack Considerations

Purdue (PUR)
University of Virginia (UV)
North Carolina State (NCST)

CFB DFS Final Thoughts

The most straight forward decision point tonight is Braelon Allen. By either fading, or playing Chez as direct leverage you can potentially pass over half the field. Alternatively, Ashton Jeanty looks like chalk you should just eat. However, you can still get different with him by playing a BSU stack including Taylen Green and/or Eric McAlister. Brennan Armstrong has the highest exposure% in the contest sims and his receiver Kevin Concepcion has the highest edge% on the slate making NCST a strong GPP option.

GL and let's bake some bread!

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  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
  • Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.
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Paydirt CFB DFS Triple Option 09.16.2023

Welcome to the CFB DFS Triple Option here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the CFB DFS slate. This article is NOT used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

DFS Slate Overview

  • Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Nate Johnson (QB) with Braelon Allen (RB) and Jamari Thrash (WR). Furthermore, Malachi Corley (WR) and Jo'Quavious Marks (RB) will also be heavily owned.
  • OSU will be a popular stack today, although stacking in general looks to be more spread out based on early ownership. They key today is the min-priced QB for Utah potentially allowing you to fit the expensive WRs for OSU, or expensive QBs like Jaylen Daniels. Therefore, we should expect to see slightly more OSU and LSU stacks than we normally would. In GPPs, Georgia Southern (GSU), Kansas St. (KSU), and Florida St. (FSU) all deserve consideration.
  • Braelon Allen will once again be chalk despite it being clear that Wisconsin is going to timeshare the backfield. In his first two games we've seen the complete range of outcomes for Allen with over 30 fantasy points in the first game, and less than 10 in the second. If nearly half the field is projected to play that volatility you can simply pivot to TreyVeon Henderson or Audric Estime.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

CFB Cash Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.

QB: Nate Johnson (Make sure he's starting)
RB: Jo'Quavious Marks
WR1: Jamari Thrash
WR2: Malachi Corley
Flex: Damien Martinez

CFB GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

QB: Jordan Travis
RB: Audric Estime
WR1: Keon Coleman
WR2: Phillip Brooks
Flex: Cam Porter

DFS Stack Considerations

Georgia Southern (GSU)
Kansas State (KSU)
Florida State (FSU)

CFB DFS$7.5 Final Thoughts

As long as Nate Johnson is starting, you're playing him. Min-priced QBs with rushing upside are afree square so don't overthink this. Similarly, Jamari Thrash is just a blatant mis-price on Draftkings and is the strongest play of the chalk skill positions. From a roster construction standpoint, if people are going to jam in Braelon Allen at $7.5k then Audric Estime and TreVeyon Henderson are excellent pivots that allow you to maintain a similar build. Lastly, today seems like a good day to be overweight on stacking teams and/or games as ownership is indicating more cash-style builds will be popular.

GL and let's bake some bread!

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  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
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  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.
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Paydirt NFL DFS Play Action Week 2

Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

Chalk DFS Plays:

  • Calvin Ridley (20.09%)
  • Puka Nacua (19.06%)
  • Davante Adams (17.17%)
  • James Conner (16.09%)
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (16.73%)

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Calvin Ridley

Calvin Ridley will be popular for a 2nd week in a row after exploding in week 1. However, there are a few strong GPP pivots to consider. At the receiver position, DK Metcalf is in the 2nd highest projected total game and will be minimally owned. Additionally, Keenan Allen will be about half as owed as Ridley and Austin Ekeler is doubtful for LAC. At the FLEX, Tony Pollard is another pivot you can go to.

Puka Nacua

Puka seemingly came out of nowhere in week 1 doing his best Cooper Kupp impression. However, he's far from a lock this week. Zay Flowers looks like a strong pivot especially considering Mark Andrews is still banged up. Furthermore, Marquis Brown is a two for one pivot off of both Puka and James Conner. Lastly, while not the same position Tyler Higbee does provide direct leverage.

Davante Adams

Davante Adams presents an interesting scenario. While there are several pivots, all of them will be similarly owned. Additionally, the team stacks containing those pivots will be significantly higher owned. The move in GPPs may be to either play a Raiders stack, or play Josh Allen with Davante Adams in place of Diggs.

James Conner

If we ignore Daniel Jones, there's only one skill position pivot to Conner and they don't offer much of an ownership discount. That said, Conner is likely a fine chalk piece to have in your lineups.

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra looks like pretty solid chalk this week. Not only is there only one pivot with a higher Top Finish%, but that pivot is almost equally as high owned. However, one way to include the sun god while being different would be to include him with a Seahawks stack.

DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts

Of the five highest projected owned players Calvin Ridley and Puka Nacua look like the clearest fades. Conversely, James Conner and Amon-Ra look like the strongest chalk. Lastly, Davante Adams is probably fine but it would be best to avoid playing him with other chalk pieces.

Good luck and let's bake some bread!

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  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
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  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

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Paydirt CFB DFS Triple Option 09.09.2023

Welcome to the CFB DFS Triple Option here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the CFB DFS slate. This article is NOT used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

DFS Slate Overview

  • Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Jeff Sims (QB) with Rasheen Ali (RB) and Deion Burks (WR). Furthermore, Travis Hunter (WR) and Quinshon Judkins (RB) will also be heavily owned.
  • COL will be a popular stack with people hopping on the Prime Time bandwagon. Despite Sanders only projecting for 13% ownership, both Travis Hunter and Jimmy Horn Jr. project for over 20% each. When we factor in Sanders lack of rushing ability it's fair to assume the vast majority of lineups with him will include at least one pass catcher. Purdue and Texas A&M both look like strong GPP stacks.
  • Pivoting off of the chalk super-flex QB is a good way to get different in DFS. Currently, Jeff Sims is projected to be the highest owned player on the slate. However, Hudson Card is cheaper, lower-owned, and a natural stacking partner with chalk Deion Burks.

Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.

QB: Jeff Sims
RB: Rasheen Ali
WR1: Deion Burks
WR2: Travis Hunter
Flex: Quinshon Judkins

CFB GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance. 

QB: Hudson Card
RB: Kaelon Black
WR1: Jacolby George
WR2: Evan Stewart
Flex: Tre Harris

DFS Stack Considerations

Ole Miss (MISS)
Tulane (TUL)
Purdue (PUR)

CFB DFS Final Thoughts

MISS and TUL will each have popular pieces but just due to pricing the full stack might come in lower. Given that there are no real stand out options in the expensive tier at RB/WR, finding value and rolling with a premium stack is certainly viable. Additionally, there are two clear spots to pivot for both small field and large field GPPs. In small field simply fading Jeff Sims will make you different, and in large field you can also pivot to Kaelon Black over Rasheen Ali.

GL and let's bake some bread!

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Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
  • Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
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Paydirt NFL DFS Play Action Week 1

Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

Chalk Plays:

  • Jamaal Williams (21.51%)
  • Justin Jefferson (17.59%)
  • Alexander Mattison (17.52%)
  • Tyreek Hill (17.45%)
  • Kenneth Walker III (16.05%)

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Jamaal Williams

Once we factor in William's Top Finish %, median projection, and LevX he looks like a pretty bad chalk play. For small field contests this is a good place to pivot. Additionally, you can lower exposure for MME.

Justin Jefferson

Unlike Jamaal Williams above, Jefferson has no comparable pivot at his position. The only pivot option is McCaffrey which would have to be in the FLEX spot.

Alexander Mattison

Alexander Mattison is another good spot to pivot from the field. Both Joe Mixon and Aaron Jones look like considerably better plays in GPPs. Furthermore, Green Bay has some injury concerns at receiver which could boost the pass-catching upside for Jones out of the backfield.

Tyreek Hill

While Ja' Marr Chase is a viable pivot to Tyreek, you don't gain much leverage in median, ceiling, or ownership. Similarly, Austin Ekler is a viable pivot, however, he rates worse than Chase.

Kenneth Walker III

Kenneth Walker looks like the worst of the three popular running backs considering his price, projection, and Top Finish%. Dameon Pierce and Najee Harris would be the preferred pivots in this range.

DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts

The 3 popular mid-range running backs all look like bad chalk and the preferred place to pivot. Not only are there multiple alternatives, but none of them have a raw points projection to justify their ownership. The popular expensive receivers on the other hand, look like players you'll at least want to match the field on.

Good luck and let's bake some bread!

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