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NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Eagles vs. Chiefs SUPERBOWL

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

  • The name of the game today is fitting Mahomes and Hurts, and doing so while remaining competitive in the GPP without being duped is exceptionally difficult.
  • The highest projected dupes completely lack both defenses, which makes them prime options in terms of building natural diversification.
  • Enjoy the Superbowl and I hope to see you all next year at Paydirt!

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

The slate entirely comes down to building around Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes. However, the optimizations much prefer Hurts thanks to a considerably higher median projection and rushing upside. Hurts has a CPT% in the optimizations of 48% while Mahomes is at just 2.78%. The projected ownership for both is around even at 13%, which says that Hurts is considerably undervalued even with the highest projected captain ownership on the slate. This feels akin to Josh Allen or Christian McCaffrey showdowns, where the field isn’t playing them enough even as the highest owned player overall.

The most overvalued player tonight is likely Travis Kelce. His projected ownership at captain is 10.71% while the optimizations only have him in the slot 2.41% of the time. Likewise in terms of FLEX his projected ownership sits at around 43% while his optimization exposure is only 28.76%. This isn’t necessarily a consequence of Kelce being a bad play, it’s more a consequence of his price. The optimizations prefer using only two studs, and Kelce ends up being left out of lineups because of it.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

  • AJ Brown looks way undervalued at both CPT and FLEX and is the second highest priority on the slate outside of Jalen Hurts, which creates a natural pairing.
  • While Travis Kelce is overvalued, Juju Smith-Schuster looks undervalued especially at the FLEX spot.
  • Both Kickers are well undervalued as salary saving options.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Nearly every one of the highest projected dupes is using Jalen Hurts, but that is to be expected. Outside of him, Patrick Mahomes and AJ Brown are highly exposed options as well.Interestingly, Miles Sanders is not seen here at all, and neither is the Eagles DST. That pairing may provide extreme leverage in large field contests while people assume the game to be high scoring. Likewise, the pairing of Isiah Pacheco and the Chiefs DST makes a lot of sense for Chiefs onslaughts as well.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

I wrote this during the CIN/BUF game, and it holds true tonight:

“It is going to be very, very hard to win the main GPP tonight on Draftkings with the size of the contest and generally condensed offenses. People are going to build out weird lineups with bad plays just to be unique, and I think that’s mostly a mistake. While you should certainly be off the board, I think it’s much better to be off the board in a way that maintains upside rather than throwing darts. 

Be different with roster construction and captain usage instead of playing someone like Royce Gilliam or whoever the fuck is going to get touted as a sneaky value option. Use defenses and kickers in weird ways. Fade Joe Burrow. Run a 5-1 BUF onslaught. But build something that isn’t unique in a bad way.”

The size of the contests tonight makes it hard to be unique, but that doesn’t mean you should throw optimal game theory out the window and just play fuck-all plays. The name of the game here is being thoughtful with your leverage and creating a lot of direct routes towards passing the field. For instance, playing Noah Gray in a lineup with the salary for Travis Kelce. Or playing Miles Sanders in a lineup that could have Jalen Hurts. Look for ways to build in a way that benefits while the field fails.

Overall, the optimizations have a clear taste for Hurts over Mahomes tonight, and they prefer the Eagles in general. Utilizing the combo of Hurts and AJ Brown instead of that of Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Utilizing RB/DST correlations and making onslaught lineups while the field plays for a competitive high scoring affair is a strong route as well. Finally, the main player that looks like a strong piece of a KC stack in place of Travis Kelce is Juju Smith-Schuster.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Travis Kelce
  • Jerrick McKinnon
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Juju Smith-Schuster
  • Jalen Hurts (CPT)
  • Harrison Butker (FLEX)

Good luck and bink a unique!

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NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Bills vs. Bengals

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

  • You will likely have to fade one of the QBs tonight in large fields, and it’s Burrow that gets voted off the island.
  • Highest duplications are likely to be built around Isaiah McKenzie, but adding Gabe Davis can remedy that.
  • Don’t build bad lineups, focus on being different through roster construction rather than bad players.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

This slate, like most with the Bills, hinges on Josh Allen at captain. His projections in both the median and ceiling thresholds are just so much higher than the others available. Because of this, he makes for an undervalued captain and overvalued FLEX. Indeed, he will end up around 95% owned tonight across all slots and positions.

The most overvalued player tonight is looking like Joe Burrow. His captain exposures in the optimizations are just 3.81% against a projected ownership of 12.39%. While Burrow has an exceptional ceiling, it just doesn’t compare to that of Allen or even Ja’Marr Chase when taking price into consideration. Overall, you will likely have to make a choice to fade one of the QBs, and Burrow is the obvious odd man out.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

  • Both James Cook and Semaj Perine appear in no optimizations as captain, but Perine looks like an appropriately valued FLEX option.
  • Tyler Boyd is well overvalued in both CPT and FLEX slots.
  • Isaiah McKenzie is probably the best cheap option at FLEX, and looks well undervalued overall.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

The vast majority of highly duplicated lineups look to have Isaiah McKenzie at captain. This is because of a modest price and his relatively high ceiling in the Bills offense. Indeed, 8 of the lineups you see above have him in the CPT slot. Joining him at captain here are both QBs, Ja’Marr Chase, and Joe Mixon. It’s worth noting that neither of Diggs or Davis end up in the highest dupes, which might be a nice place to get a bit different.

The main note on FLEX options above is that Gabe Davis is not used at all. With him being void of both captain and FLEX exposure in the high dupes, he makes for an obvious priority in larger field GPPs to induce differentiation. The only other note on dupes is that neither defense is used, which is a typical leak by the field in perceived shootouts.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

It is going to be very, very hard to win the main GPP tonight on Draftkings with the size of the contest and generally condensed offenses. People are going to build out weird lineups with bad plays just to be unique, and I think that’s mostly a mistake. While you should certainly be off the board, I think it’s much better to be off the board in a way that maintains upside rather than throwing darts. 

Be different with roster construction and captain usage instead of playing someone like Royce Gilliam or whoever the fuck is going to get touted as a sneaky value option. Use defenses and kickers in weird ways. Fade Joe Burrow. Run a 5-1 BUF onslaught. But build something that isn’t unique in a bad way.

Based on the optimizations, the main priorities tonight are Josh Allen CPT and Gabe Davis. Likewise, avoiding Joe Burrow is basically a must in the large field GPPs if you want to avoid heavily duplicated action. Finally, having the Bengals DST and hoping for some Josh Allen whoopsies is probably the best large field play you can make while being realistic.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Joe Burrow
  • James Cook
  • Tyler Boyd

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Josh Allen (CPT)
  • Gabe Davis
  • Isaiah McKenzie

Good luck and bink a unique!

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Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
  • Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

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Dshell's MMA Main Event 3.18.2023

MMA is a sport based on opportunity and split second decision making. The breakdowns that we try to focus on here will be looking at stylistic differences between fighters and how they will impact the card. Although the breakdowns won't usually be long, they'll have info on fighter strengths and weaknesses and how we expect…

by Shelton
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Paydirt NFL DFS Week 17 Thoughts and Cores

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It'll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NFL DFS main slate breakdown:

Team totals and touchdown projections

Overall Slate DFS Thoughts

  • Ownership outside of DST (we will get to that in a sec) is generally spread out on a slate with a lot of moving parts. Guys like Amon-Ra St.Brown, Justin Jefferson, and Garrett Wilson continue to get a lot of traction as they have all season. As of now it doesn’t look like there is a lot of obscene RB chalk, but I would be surprised if Brian Robinson doesn’t end up in the 30% range in most GPPs. Overall so long as you are prudent about combos around ASB, Wilson, and Robinson you shouldn’t worry about ownership too much.
  • As far as DST, the 49ers DST is way too cheap for a spot against LV and is going to be massively owned. Likely assuming somewhere in the 30% range. The roadmap here is as follows: If you have a low owned stack, go ahead and play the 49ers DST. If you have 4-5 higher owned pieces, you should be avoiding the 49ers DST like the plague. It’s an obvious misprice and good play, but keep the overall ownership of your lineup in mind.
  • Looking at QB, the field is mostly on Jared Goff, Justin Fields, and Patrick Mahomes. My guess here is these three take up somewhere around 50% of the total ownership at QB with Fields being the highest of the bunch. All three project well and are fine plays and stacks overall. You can make some strong pivots to other games here, with some of the best options being GB/MIN and NYJ/SEA. All of those teams have strong stacking components and good pricing on the QBs for upside. Likewise, pivoting from Mahomes to Russell Wilson with Nathaniel Hackett gone is a really strong play in large field GPPs.
  • For RBs, the chalk is pretty good overall. There’s still not near enough ownership on Rhamondre Stevenson at a $1,000 discount. The big pivot here is going to be looking at D’Andre Swift at no ownership in the highest owned game on the slate. People will be playing Brian Robinson instead, but Swift has slate breaking upside and should be a part of your playpool and likely a priority in 3-max contests. Biggest avoid is probably Tyler Allgeier in a timeshare at significant ownership.
  • With WRs, Greg Dortch at $3k will be really interesting. Current ownership projections have him around the 15% mark, but 25% ownership wouldn’t be surprising by any means. He joins a group of cheap WRs like Olamide Zaccheus/Drake London, Zay Jones, and Brandin Cooks as the cheaper options to fill out lineups. Highest upside guys are going to be Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson, with Davante Adams being a super volatile and super low owned upside piece if you believe Jarrett Stidham doesn’t completely suck ass. As usual, WR considerations are mostly a consequence of stack selection with the cheap options being used for salary relief.
  • Finally looking towards TE, it’s basically Travis Kelce or use the TE in your stack. George Kittle and Evan Engram are fine options for their prices, but after that it’s a complete crapshoot.

Overall it is way too easy to build a CHI stack with ASB and Brian Robinson. That’s a combo you have to be careful with in terms of eating chalk. The MIN/GB and KC/DEN games are probably my favorite spots to attack in GPPs considering the upside and “rivalry” aspects that I care a little more about late in the season. Building with an expensive RB and cheap RB is going to be the most popular roster construction, so paying down at both or up and both is what you should aim for overall. Finally, the 49ers DST is a great play but only if your lineup can eat the ownership.

For more info and alerts on new articles, follow me at @Paydirt_DFS on Twitter!

NFL DFS Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. Generally, you'll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.

QB – Jared Goff
RB – Brian Robinson
RB – Christian McCaffrey
WR – Amon-Ra St.Brown
WR – Greg Dortch
TE – Evan Engram/Travis Kelce
DST – 49ers

NFL DFS GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it's worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.

QB – Desmond Ridder, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson
RB – Rhamondre Stevenson, Saquon Barkley, James Conner
WR – Drake London, Tyreek Hill, Robbie Anderson
TE – Travis Kelce, Cole Kmet, TJ Hockenson
DST – Whoever you want

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  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
  • Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

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NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Packers vs. Rams

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

  • The running game for the Packers looks valuable, but people are ignoring AJ Dillon when building in that context.
  • The highest predicted dupes are built with cheaper captains and a Packers emphasis, so mix in some Van Jefferson or Tyler Higbee.
  • The clear path here is a Packers onslaught with AJ Dillon, but Rams stacks offer more relative value for larger fields.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

The most undervalued player on this slate based on optimizations is AJ Dillon. He has exposures at captain 22.26% of the time with a projected ownership there of only 9%. Likewise, his FLEX exposures trump his projected ownership 58% to 38%. On the other hand, the most overvalued captain is looking like Allen Lazard. His exposures are 2.6% at captain and 23.50% at FLEX while his projected ownerships are 8% and 35.70% respectively. There are no big avoids tonight, so just be mindful of the players with higher projected ownership than exposures in the table above when you build.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

With high priced players like Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones being used a lot in the FLEX, we can expect some of the cheaper options at captain. Both kickers will make there way up there along with the Packers DST. Interestingly, we will see some Ben Skowronek captain lineups even in 4-2 Packers builds because of the savings he offers. It’s worth noting that Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee look to be left out of nearly all the highest predicted dupes, making them important pieces when looking for differenations.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

A lot of people will likely be playing some variation of Packers DST with the run game on this slate. Aaron Jones is really popular, and people think the Rams suck. It’s a fair strategy, but it’s not giving enough credence to AJ Dillon as an option. He is coming in at about half the ownership of Aaron Jones and is a natural pivot in the exact same gamescript. Not to mention the Rams could very easily keep this close or flip the script entirely considering how bad the Packers have been at times this year. Overall it’s looking like Aaron Jones is either a fade or a compliment to AJ Dillon lineups overall.

In sum, there are two pretty clear paths in larger fields. Play AJ Dillon instead of Aaron Jones and build for a 4-2 or 5-1 Packers stomp, or play for a shootout with an emphasis on the Rams side. Both options given plenty of upside in all formats but the Rams play makes the most sense in much larger fields like the main GPP. 

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Ben Skowronek
  • Cam Akers
  • Packers DST

Some players that look undervalued:

  • AJ Dillon
  • Baker Mayfield
  • Rams DST

Good luck and bink a unique!

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Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
  • Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles

Dshell's MMA Main Event 3.11.2023

MMA is a sport based on opportunity and split second decision making. The breakdowns that we try to focus on here will be looking at stylistic differences between fighters and how they will impact the card. Although the breakdowns won't usually be long, they'll have info on fighter strengths and weaknesses and how we expect…

by Shelton
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Paydirt NFL DFS Week 15 Thoughts and Cores

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It'll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NFL DFS main slate breakdown:

Team totals and touchdown projections

Overall Slate DFS Thoughts

  • Lots of ownership is concentrated on LAC here as a stack, they project well but likely not deserving of that much ownership.
  • TEN on the other side looks like a considerably better play based on ownership, a narrow target tree, and value.
  • The field is focusing on Travis Kelce for KC and not Isiah Pacheco even though the Chiefs are 14 point favorites and have trusted Pacheco more and more each week.
  • Zach Wilson in a nuts matchup at no ownership is an obvious oversight by the field.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson is about $1500 too cheap for his workload, he's basically Austin Ekeler with a better rushing role.

Overall this slate tends itself well to playing the midrange values. There are some cheaper options at WR that work, but you'll want to avoid Chris Moore as a highly used player on a bad team. There are no real values at RB, so you'll see a lot of double TE lineups in GPPs today. Paying down at QB and WR makes your lineups feel considerably better in terms of floor and ceiling even if you give up some median expectation along the way.

For more info and alerts on new articles, follow me at @Paydirt_DFS on Twitter!

NFL DFS Cash Game Core:

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. Generally, you'll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.

QB – Justin Herbert
RB – Alvin Kamara
RB – Rhomndre Stevenson
WR – Chris Moore
WR – Keenan Allen
TE – Travis Kelce/Greg Dulcich
DST – Broncos

NFL DFS GPP Core:

This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it's worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.

QB – Trevor Lawrence, Ryan Tannehill, Zach Wilson
RB – Josh Jacobs, Rhamondre Stevenson, Isiah Pacheco
WR – Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Christian Kirk, Chris Olave
TE – Chig Okonkwu, Travis Kelce, Dalton Schultz
DST – Whoever you want

Powerful tools for every sport

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Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
  • Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

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Paydirt NFL DFS Week 15 Saturday Game Notes

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It'll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

Main Points:

  • The highest total is in the MIN/IND game, but the highest upside belongs to the Dolphins and Bills.
  • Jonathan Taylor is by far the best RB play on the slate based on price and volume, but Dalvin Cook is probably the better GPP play in that game.
  • Even with a low implied total, the Browns have a strong passing TD expectation and should be considered in GPPs because of it.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NFL DFS main slate breakdown:

Team totals and touchdown projections

  • MIN/IND is the highest O/U on the board at 48, a full 10+ points higher than CLE/BAL.
  • Likewise, MIN is implied for the highest passing TD total at 1.72.
  • However, CLE is implied for the second highest passing TD expectation at 1.63, which puts them firmly in GPP consideration at very low ownership.
  • BUF are the biggest favorites at -7.5 while having the highest rushing TD expectation, which puts Singletary/Cook in play.

There’s some really interesting ownership projections today. MIA has the lowest projected stack ownership and with how potent their offense has shown to be this season that should pique interest. They’ve been mostly bad in weeks past and the weather sucks but there’s definitely leverage there. On the other hand, there should be a large chunk of ownership on MIN but it’s 100% deserved. You want to stack MIN/IND in some way that derives relative value, which is likely fading either of Pittman or Hockenson.

DFS Game notes and strategy

Ravens vs. Browns

  • Lowest total on the slate, but the Browns have passing TD upside here based on the models.
  • Considering that, they make for an awesome GPP stack at no ownership.
  • It’s very, very hard to look at this game as a shootout, which lends itself more to one off and secondary correlations.
  • If the Browns win, it’s likely on the back of Chubb/Cooper with an efficient day from Watson.
  • If the Ravens win, it’s likely on the back of Dobbins/Edwards backfield along with Mark Andrews.
  • Neither of these game scenarios look at Huntley as a viable option, but Watson with Cooper and Njoku can work.

Bills vs. Dolphins

  • Middling total of 43 pretty much entirely based on the weather with some slight influence on recency bias against the Dolphins.
  • Worth noting, however, that in the last four weeks MIA is both the most pass heavy team in the adjusted script at 73% as well as being the most aggressive in the league when throwing at 9.76 air yards per throw.
  • Sure, the results haven’t been there, but this game has by far the highest upside potential on the slate.
  • If the Bills win here, it comes in two ways: A stomp, with the Dolphins unable to move the ball with some more bad luck, or in a shootout. If they win in a stomp, it’s likely that Singletary ends up optimal on this slate. If they win in a shootout, Josh Allen ends up optimal.
  • If the Dolphins win, it’s only in a shootout. There’s not very many likely scenarios of them stomping the Bills at home, so stacking the Dolphins means that you are going very heavy on this game.
  • With the pricing on this slate it makes sense to stack this game as much as possible in at least a couple lineups, since you can fit all the power players without much issue.

Vikings vs. Colts

  • People are going to talk themselves into Matt Ryan stacks and my god that sounds like a miserable way to spend your Saturday.
  • Highest total on the slate, but still below 50 overall, so it’s not like this is looking to be a major shootout or anything.
  • Vikings project for the most stack ownership with Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson both the highest projected ownership at their positions.
  • Michael Pittman looks really popular, because people have stockholm syndrome, so he makes for one of the easiest pivot points on the slate.
  • If the Vikings win, it can come in multiple ways. They can win in a shootout, where they fumble away a lead or have to play from behind with a Jonathan Taylor nuke. They can win in a stomp with Dalvin Cook eating the Colts alive and Jefferson having 175 yards. They can win a low scoring game where both of these offenses look like they are led by Kirk Cousins and Matt Ryan. Lots of acceptable scenarios here.
  • If the Colts win, it’s pretty much just in a low scoring affair with Jonathan Taylor crushing. This offense isn’t built to have sustained scoring through the air, so if the Vikings get a lead it can get ugly.
  • Overall, Jonathan Taylor is the obvious best RB on this slate but definitely comes with risk if the Vikings get a lead. Dalvin Cook is probably the best leverage RB on the slate for that reason, considering that game scenario lends itself to a Dalvin ceiling game.
  • You should have a Vikings stack here, but make sure you pay attention to Dalvin Cook if you stack a different one.
For more info and alerts on new articles, follow me at @Paydirt_DFS on Twitter!

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
  • Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

More free articles

Dshell's MMA Main Event 3.4.2023

MMA is a sport based on opportunity and split second decision making. The breakdowns that we try to focus on here will be looking at stylistic differences between fighters and how they will impact the card. Although the breakdowns won't usually be long, they'll have info on fighter strengths and weaknesses and how we expect…

by Shelton
Posted on by — Leave a comment

NFL DFS Showdown SZN: 49ers vs. Seahawks

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

  • Christian McCaffrey is projected at wildly high ownership and is deserving of every last bit of it.
  • Highly predicted duplications are heavily focused on Ray-Ray McCloud, so fading him seems like a good, easy way to get different.
  • Depending on the game situation, you’ll want to prioritize either Jordan Mason or CMC at captain.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

Christian McCaffrey is projected to be the highest owned player on the slate by far at both captain and FLEX. He is also appropriately valued and should be the #1 priority on the slate. It’s not about fading him, it’s about how you get different with him in your lineups.

The most undervalued captain tonight is DK Metcalf. His captain exposures sit at 18.56% while his projected ownership there is just 8.27%. He’s also very undervalued at FLEX, with 64% exposure vs. just 37% expected ownership. On the other hand, the most overvalued player tonight is Tyler Lockett! With exposures of less than 1% at captain and just 12% in the FLEX, he makes sense as the easiest fade overall.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

There’s a healthy mix at captain tonight, but the highest exposed in the above lineups is Chrsitian McCaffrey. After him, we have some Walker, Geno, and Gould taking up equity along with a bit of Metcalf. Some notable players missing from the captains above are both defenses as well as Tyler Lockett. Overall, there’s enough value to do whatever you need to do at captain tonight. It’s worth saying that because of this, McCaffrey can be played in the FLEX to get different.

Speaking of the FLEX, we see more McCaffrey here but he’s not the highest exposure. Ray-Ray McCloud is actually the most used player in the highest predicted duplications. With no Deebo Samuel, it’s assumed that McCloud takes that role. However, in the preseason we saw plenty of Danny Gray and he’s getting basically no steam. It makes sense to go with Gray in otherwise highly duplicated lineups for some easy differentiation.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

Whenever we have a player projected at well over 90% total ownership it’s a tempting fade. However, that fade hardly ever works out outside of injury because the medians are so heavily in their favor. McCaffrey has had his injury issues in the past, but the 49ers are happy to limit his workload to prevent it. The only thing to do in this instance is relegate CMC to the FLEX and hope he doesn’t end up scoring the touchdowns. With that being said, mixing in some Jordan Mason is a great idea in large field GPPs, especially if you think the Seahawks get rolled here. Mason will be the lead back if SF gets a strong lead.

All of that being said, if you think SF wins this game handedly, Jordan Mason is the best play on the board. If you think SEA wins this game or keeps it close, CMC should be your captain. In both instances, mixing in some Danny Gray and DK MEtcalf seem to be strong ideas in the optimizations to give both upside and differentiation.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Tyler Lockett
  • George Kittle
  • Ray-Ray McCloud

Some players that look undervalued:

  • DK Metcalf
  • Danny Gray
  • Seahawks DST

Good luck and bink a unique!

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NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Chargers vs. Dolphins

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

The glaring difference in optimizations vs projected ownership is Tua being by far the best choice at captain. His optimization exposures are 42%, a super high mark, while his projected ownership there is only slightly higher than Herbert and Tyreek. His projection trumps the others by a significant margin, so he makes for a priority in the slot.

The most overvalued option is looking like Justin Herbert. While tua makes for a terrific captain, Herbert lacks the passing TD upside based on the Chargers usual trends. Because of this, his optimization exposures are just 2.30% at captain and 30.65% in the FLEX. 

Granted, these results are based on the numbers and not necessarily the upside. I think it’s worth saying that based on historical baselines, both Herbert and tua possess nearly the same upside, and utilizing either at captain is a strong move on this slate.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

While Tua appears in 40% of the highest duplication predictions here, it comes with some context. First off, he is by far the highest used option in the optimizations, so there’s more marbles in the bag here. Likewise, because of the amount of usable value on this slate, the expensive players like Tua are more accessible at captain. After him, we see Waddle as the next most used captain along with both Dolphins RBs. Interestingly there is no Tyreek in this set, which makes him a high upside captain in terms of differentiation.

One last note here is the duplication counts are strikingly low, which is to be expected with two good teams and softer pricing. There are a million ways to go with your lineups on this slate, so people will be getting different without trying. You can do the same and mostly not worry about duplications outside of the instance of entering a cash lineup or something.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This should be a fantastic game with upside all across the field. While the optimizations lean towards the Dolphins side, there might be more edge in stacking up the Chargers. Because of the lower ownership on guys like Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer, you can make some easily unique builds while pulling in main Dolphins players. Something like a 4-2 with Mike Williams captain and Jaylen Waddle in the FLEX is a great way to capture a lot of upside in a more unique way.

Based on optimizations, Tua is the captain with a Austin Ekeler fade. Utilizing the Chargers DST as a value piece along with Jaylen Waddle look like the best ways to gain relative value. Overall, build what you want for this one and enjoy what should be an awesome ride.

Good luck and bink a unique!

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Paydirt NFL DFS Week 14 Thoughts and Notes

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It'll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

Main Points:

  • The highest total game is DET/MIN, but the ownership is likely to fall on DET who has significantly less upside than the Vikings.
  • Joe Mixon looks like terrific chalk, while Derrick Henry is only a popular option because of narratives and worthy of a fade.
  • If you need to save some salary, the Titans look like a fantastic salary saving option with upside that allows you to leverage the field as well.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NFL DFS main slate breakdown:

Team totals and touchdown projections

  • The highest team total on the slate goes to MIN/DET at 52 (as of time of writing). The spread is close, with the Lions being a surprising favorite. Minnesota has the highest adjusted pass rate on the slate at 65% while DET lags behind at 54%. In fact, DET has both a lot adjusted pass rate as well as a low pass rate in the redzone, which is a large detriment to the upside of pass catchers. While Amon-Ra St.Brown is a baller, his ownership will be extremely expensive. The better plays will likely be D’Andre swift or Jamaal Williams with DET being so run heavy when it counts. As for MIN, Kirk/Jefferson/Hockenson with a D’andre Swift runback is a great way to build. Overall, strong game environement with some interesting leverage mechanics.
  • Lowest team total here is split between SF/TB and PIT/BAL. Both games feature backups QBs and a lot of running back touches. Neither game features much upside at all outside of a couple choice options. Christian McCaffrey is a good spend up, but you can’t trust the 49ers passing game with Purdy at QB. Pat Freiermuth continues to be a strong option at TE in the midrange. Outside of those two players, you won’t want to spend too much time in these ones.
  • The largest spread goes to DAL over HOU as 16.5 point favorites. HOU is down their top two pass catchers and DAL is fully healthy. However, this is a Mike McCarthy lead team, and it’s a good bet that they don’t cover. Interestingly, Dak Prescott and Cowboys stacks are not popular even though they have the highest implied team total on the slate. It seems like a strong spot to stack Dak/CeeDee/Gallup and hope all the scoring comes through the air against an atrocious Texans squad.

Highest projected ownership

  • Joe Mixon currently profiles as the highest owned player on the slate, and for good reason. We have seen 50+ fantasy point upside (literally) from him this season when the Bengals are rolling. His workload is among the best in the league, handling 75%+ of the rushing attempts and the vast majority of the goalwork along with a couple targets per game. All of this at just $6,900, a very nice price, means he is around $$1,200 too cheap. Considering CIN is implied for the second most rushing TDs on the slate at 1.93, he is a no-brainer play.
  • Amon-Ra St.Brown has 25+ fantasy points in three games straight and is the feature player in the highest total game on the slate. Granted, we talked about DET being more run heavy in the redzone, which can curtail the upside of WRs. The volume is unquestionable, but if ASB doesn’t score a TD he is likely not going to win you a GPP. He’s a lock in cash game formats but likely someone worth avoiding in large field GPPs.
  • Derrick Henry has been trash lately. Over the last four weeks he has not broken 90 rushing yards and has eclipsed 12 fantasy points just once. Nothing has materially changed to make us believe that the Titans are improved in this spot outside of the narrative that Henry always runs all over the Jags. All of this and you don’t get a price discount either. If you have the salary to afford him, the ceiling is always there, but his median expectations are not deserving of this ownership.
  • The final note here is going to be on Jared Goff as by far the highest owned QB on the slate, which seems preposterous. Goff is averaging 251 yards passing this year and has thrown for 240 or less in seven games. The Lions are extremely run heavy in the redzone which limits his upside. The only thing Goff has going for him is a defensive boost against the Vikings which we know can be a mirage. His median expectations are okay for the price, but the downside here is tremendous. Typically, you should fade boom or bust players at high ownership and that’s exactly what we have here.

Top five value stacks

  • After talking through Derrick Henry as bad chalk earlier, the Titans make for a terrific leverage play. The stack of Tannehill/Woods/Ikhine is exceptionally cheap and projects towards the middle of the pack. The Titans profile as a run heavy team, but are actually much more pass heavy in the redzone. This is shown by their passing TD expectation of 1.57 while their rushing expectation is just .95. Likewise, this stack has an easy gamestack partner with Christian Kirk, so you can play for a shootout. Overall, the Titans make a great leverage stack in GPPs.
  • Cleveland stacks are easy mode this week. The Bengals have been on fire and forcing opponents to play catch up for a month. Watson looked like the trash he is last week but may have just needed to knock off the rust. Amari Cooper and David Njoku make a natural stack combo, especially since Njoku takes up the TE spot. Bring it back with either Chase or Higgins and it makes for a high upside and affordable option. Not to mention, this game has the second highest over under on the slate at 47! Cleveland also has a respectable passing TD expectation of 1.83, the second highest on the slate.
  • Denver…. Sucks.
  • Jacksonville is on the other side of the TEN stack, and speaks just as much to the upside of both. This game has sneaky upside on two teams with quality pass catchers offering leverage on a chalk RB. While the Titans side is more affordable, the Jags offer more stability and a more predictable passing tree with Lawrence/Kirk/Zay as a natural combination. You would want to bring it back with either Woods or Okwonkwo from the Titans, depending on price and roster construction.
  • Finally, if you really think that DAL is going to be leading by multiple touchdowns, you have to assume the Texans will be passing to catch up. Moreover, this stack is free. It costs just $11,400 on draftkings to stack Mills/Moore/Dorsett and allows you to roster almost any other players you want on the slate. This is a play likely reserved for only the largest field GPPS, but the leverage and relative value are unmatched.
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NFL DFS Cash Game Core:

(Added after 10am EST)

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. Generally, you'll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.

QB – Jared Goff
RB – Joe Mixon
RB – Travis Homer
WR – Amon-Ra St.Brown
WR – DJ Moore
TE – Greg Dulcich
DST – Cowboys DST

NFL DFS GPP Core:

(Added after 10am EST)

This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it's worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.

QB – Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen
RB – Travis Homer, Dalvin Cook, D'Andre Swift, Joe Mixon
WR – Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, DK Metcalf, Corey Davis, DJ Chark
TE – David Njoku, TJ Hockenson, Travis Kelce
DST – Whoever you want

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NFL DFS Showdown SZN: Raiders vs. Rams

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We optimize 5,000 lineups for the contest and look into the most common captains and FLEX. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership. Finally, we run the lineups through the tools found in the Theory of DFS: Advanced Players course (Buy it here) to see what combos are +EV.

Main Points:

  • If my momma ever did one thing right with me, it was teach me not to play a DST in showdown when it has a chance at 50%+ ownership.
  • There are some interesting options when it comes to avoiding high duplications, and Ben Skowronek is one of the ones with the best floor/ceiling.
  • You don’t have to get weird tonight to be different, you just have to come to the realization that the Raiders aren’t very good and grab more Rams.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain and FLEX ownership distributions

There’s a handful of players on the slate that are gaining too much traction, but the most overvalued option is the Raiders DST. They project for 8.5% ownership in the captain slot and end up there 0% of the time in the optimizations. Likewise, they project at 37% ownership at FLEX and show up with just 4% exposure in the optimizations. Granted, there’s lots of reasons to like the Raiders D tonight, but it’s gone overboard. They make for a terrific fade in tournaments.

On the other hand the most undervalued play is John Wolford. His exposure in the optimizations at captain are around 7% while his projected ownership there is just 2%. There’s an even larger difference at flex, with his exposures sitting at 43% and his projected ownership only 18%. I’ve mentioned it in this article before, but anytime you can get a QB at low ownership in showdown it’s a good idea to do so. Especially if they have rushing upside like Wolford.

A couple other notes:

  • Both TEs look to be pretty overvalued from their upside.
  • The Rams DST looks like a better play than the Raiders at about 4x less ownership
  • There are a handful of super cheap punt options that are all viable but have an equally low chance of working out.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here are the top 20 lineups in projected dupes. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

The highest owned captain tonight is Davante Adams, which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. After him, it’s Josh Jacobs, which should also come at not much of a surprise! After that things are spread out quite a bit. Worth noting the lack of Raiders DST here, which is interesting. If you are going to play them, playing them at captain makes the most sense based on the differentiation. Other interesting players missing from captain here: John Wolford, Tyler Higbee, Ben Skowronek.

FLEX options here are well spread, but have an emphasis on Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, and Daniel carlson. All three of those players show up in 70%+ of the lineups predicted to be duplicated at the highest rate. Once again, we have a lack of Ben Skowronek here, which makes him a solid option in GPPs. Should the Rams make this competitive, he could garner a pretty great targetshare.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

Slates like this are awesome for contrarian players because you don’t even have to try. Likely 60%+ of the field will be playing two or less Rams options in their lineups, and there will be a QB under 30% owned. The Raiders DST is conservatively projected at 35% owned and could hit in the 50%+ range. This is a perfect opportunity to think to yourself, “Man, the Raiders kind of suck, let’s just hope they suck more than anticipated and stack the Rams”. If you wanted to be a real asshole about it, you could go Cam Akers captain with the Rams DST and play for a handed Rams stomp. The contrarian options are hilarious and endless!

Based on optimizations, You likely don’t want to go with a Rams stomp, but utilizing John Wolford in your Davante Adams captain lineups is a fruitful way to build. Ben Skowronek is pretty undervalued as well, so plug him in for the added differentiation. The big fades here are the Raiders DST and the TEs for both teams.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Raiders DST
  • Both TEs
  • Cam Akers

Some players that look undervalued:

  • John Wolford
  • Rams DST
  • Ben Skowronek

Good luck and bink a unique!

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Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!

  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
  • Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

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