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NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Packers vs. Chiefs

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

The highest positive leverage offered at captain across multiple runs of the simulations goes to Jordan Love, which is weird! Typically the contest sims are not a fan of QB captains, but there was a clear expectation for this slate. Other consistently positive options at the slot were Harrison Butker and AJ Dillon.

The most consistently negative options at captain were Patrick Mahomes and Romeo Doubs. With Doubs it makes sense considering how spread out the GB offense can be. With Mahomes, it’s almost entirely because of price, as he just makes a much better FLEX option where you can still fit upside around him.

FLEX ownership distributions

The highest positive leverage offered for FLEX goes to Patrick Mahomes, which, duh. Just because a player doesn’t make for a super strong captain doesn’t mean they should be avoided. In this case, Mahomes should be owned basically 100% across both slots, but he makes a lot more sense in the FLEX. Following him in terms of positive leverage offered on a consistent basis is Travis Kelce and then Love and Dillon.

The most consistent negative leverage offered at FLEX was for Christian Watson, who is going to have inflated ownership due to a strong outing last week. The Chiefs DST was a consistently negative option as well, which means that you should lock in the Packers DST since it’s showdown and one of the defenses is a key to be optimal in 2023. This is science.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Lots of Harrison Butker! As is a usual circumstance where there are strong payups, we have a kicker captain slate where people will be jamming them in to fit the FLEX combo. However, the ownerships in these high duplication risk lineups are actually pretty low (below the 220+ threshold) which tells me the dupe factors won’t be all that high tonight.

The FLEX combo that you’ll be seeing the most of tonight will be Mahomes/Kelce/Love and a good amount of Jayden Reed. Overall that core combo will be highly owned but there are enough paths to differentiation that I don’t think you have to make any adjustments away from it whatsoever. Both of these offenses are spread out to the point that you can run the core FLEX combo with some 3rd or 4th tier options and still maintain your upside. This kind of thing makes for a really good showdown field.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

Chiefs showdowns make for some quality stuff as is, but add in another team that has kind of a =RAND() way of handling touchdown distribution and it makes for a killer contest. The options here in terms of differentiation and build path are really wide, which lets you do two things: Play it safe with a core combo of Mahomes/Kelce/Love, and get fucking weird with WR3s and backup TEs.

From a gameflow perspective, I would expect this game to be close. The Chiefs offense is hamstrung by mediocre receiving options which has kept their median in check, while the Packers have a bad floor but a pretty strong ceiling. Both of these defenses are above average, so you can probably expect a relatively slow paced duel here. Both RBs are valuable in this kind of gamescript, as well as the possession receivers.

The possession guy for the Chiefs is obviously Kelce, but it’s more of a question for the Packers. Tucker Kraft comes to mind, as does Romeo Doubs. Christian Watson is not the guy I would expect to be getting peppered with possession targets, which makes me a bit happier to fade him at ownership.

My lean here is a 3-3 with either Rice/Kelce/Pacheco at captain or going with the Sims and slapping in Jordan Love and hoping for a 3-TD game to multiple options. If you do go with a 4-2 lean towards either side, I think Pacheco/Dillon both make for great captain options as this game could slow down and allow them a lot of volume.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Patrick Mahomes (CPT)
  • Christian Watson
  • Chiefs DST

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Jordan Love
  • AJ Dillon (CPT)
  • WR3 and TE2 builds

Good luck and bink a unique

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NFL DFS 2023 Week 13 Thoughts and Notes

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It'll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NFL DFS main slate breakdown:

Team stats, rates, and touchdown projections

  • The highest team total on the slate is MIA at 29.00, the lowest on the slate is NYJ at 15.50.
  • The highest game total on the slate is WAS/MIA at 49.50 with a handful of games sitting at 47 or 47.50.
  • Highest passing TD expectation is MIA at 1.93, with HOU a close second at 1.91 followed by a significant drop to DEN at 1.54.
  • Highest rushing TD expectation is MIA at 1.71 with a significant drop to the second highest for DET at 1.33.
  • Highest dropback expectations go to WAS by a lot at 43.97 with the next highest being NO at 39.29.

Here are the top 10 overall stacks in median projection:

Really not a lot of surprises here. MIA, PHI, and HOU are all up there in terms of either team total, passing TD expectation, or both. SF is part of the best game environment on the slate against the Eagles. The only team kind of out of nowhere here is LAC and their projection is likely inflated a bit by Keenan Allen’s median expectation of 1,453 targets.

Ownership makes a lot of sense as well, though I don’t think that the MIA ownership is really representative of the stack as a whole. Both Tua and Waddle should be under 10% owned.

Sorting by team total:

The big outlier here for me is PIT, who has a healthy team total at above 23 points and is almost completely free to stack. That team total is a full touchdown above their season average. I said last week I was happy to sit out of the first game without Canada and see if Pickett could ball, and last week he showed signs of balls. This team total and the Cardinals defense have me thinking that they are drastically undervalued on this slate and are too cheap.

Highest projected ownership

  • Zack Moss bigly chalk here. He’s a lock in small fields and cash games.
  • Brevin Jordan chalk is… worse. But he’s a cheap TE and the position is generally inconsequential.

Quick note: Both Olave and Breece Hall are chalk options on FD. I think both are fine, I don’t really have many notes on them.

For Zack Moss: RBs have mostly been bad against the Titans all year and people were burned badly on it early on, but have since started to ignore it again. Moss had a great role early in the year. In his three great fantasy outcomes (20.7, 25.5, and 36.5 fantasy points) he had 18, 30, and 23 carries and the third performance (against TEN) had a 56 yard TD which supercharged his outcomes. However, he has had a couple outcomes of 18 carries with less than 10 fantasy points, and it’s fair to argue that Moss had the benefit of Anthony Richardson as a threat to play off of.

Overall for the price he’s an obvious play in small field stuff but at 60% owned you have to consider the downside of any play in NFL DFS. I’m not suggesting a fade in large field but I do think that you should be looking at how builds look without him as well.

The other thing worth mentioning with Moss chalk is that he will be paired heavily with Tyreek Hill. I would absolutely suggest making a rule of playing just one of them in lineups in large field stuff.

Outside of the Moss chalk which is really the biggest piece of this slate, I think a lot of the chalk is fine. I would not be playing Brevin Jordan in GPPs outside of a stack, but other than that I don’t have a lot of quarrels with the popular plays.

Undervalued options

I don’t really have a list of undervalued options this week, but the regular guys apply: Alvin Kamara looks undervalued, Adam Thielen got a price drop after a disastrous week, and Keenan Allen is underowned.

But what I think is more valuable this week is how you build out stacks and where you allocate your salary. For me, I think too many people are going stars and scrubs this week while jamming in value plays like Moss and Brevin Jordan to get the high priced combos of Tyreek/CMC/AJB. I don’t think that’s right.

There are like 15-20 really, really strong mid-range to high-mid players that are in the single digit ownership range this week. I mentioned a whole lot of them in the video breakdown, and you’ll see a bunch in the expected fantasy points segment below, but I really like balanced builds this week with cheaper stacks. Focusing on the expensive RBs and paying down at the WRs and stacks makes a lot more sense to me than trying to fit in this giga-expensive stacks like MIA and PHI.

One last note is I think that Henry/Downs lineup secondary combos are really nice this week. Both should carry individual ownership but I don't think the combo will get much steam and it plays really well in the lineups I'm liking to build.

Usage and expected fantasy points

First, sorted by exValue, which is the value offered based on their salary and expected PPR points:

General note: I’m not touching any CLE players. Joe Flacco is old as fucking dust.

Zack Moss tops this list, but right behind him is Kyren Williams who is projected for single digit ownership. I don’t really trust that, I think he’s around 15% when we turn over the cards, but he’s a great play regardless.

Noah Brown is another player on this list that is kind of blowing my mind. He is the best value play on the slate in a high total game that isn’t getting ownership.

Next, sorted by raw expected PPR points:

As noted above, look at all this midrange! With no ownership! It’s crazy. If there was ever a week for me to use my one-time and the chalk builds failed, it would be this week, because I just think people are playing the slate wrong and ignoring balanced build combos.

One name that pops for me here is De’Von Achane. Dude gets massive ownership at like 10 touches per game but is appropriately priced in a spot with a 29 team total and people don’t wanna touch him? He’s an awesome play.

Other names here that are really enticing are Jahmyr Gibbs, D’Andre Swift, and Mike Evans. A secondary combo of Adam Thielen and Mike Evans seems pretty sick, and if you don’t wanna go Mike Evans, you can absolutely look at Rachaad White and Adam Thielen stacks.

Finally let's sort this by Ownership:

I think I have talked enough about the ownership, but this is a pretty good representation of where the good stuff is. Brevin Jordan probably has a ceiling of 12 fantasy points, so playing him as a one off is an absolute no go. A lot of these guys have expected fantasy outcomes that are relatively low. Josh Downs at 9.95, Diontae Johnson at just 10.29. Jaylen Warren getting 20% ownership while overproducing his baselines is probably a signal to fade.

Overall slate notes

  • Main stacks are pretty straight forward: MIA, PHI, and HOU are the heavy hitters with PIT, DEN, and SF being the value stacks to utilize.
  • Don’t play Brevin Jordan as a one off, and if you are playing Zack Moss just make sure he’s not paired with Tyreek Hill in larger fields.
  • The balanced builds look way undervalued this week, and I think make the most sense with strong cheap stacks we can build around.
  • I’m realizing I said that last week as well and hey, maybe I’ll get luckier this week than I did last week!
  • In the past couple weeks we didn’t have a big focus on bring backs, but this week makes for a good opportunity to stack as much as possible and max out correlations.
For more info and alerts on new articles, follow me at @Paydirt_DFS on Twitter!

NFL DFS Cash Game Core:

(Finalized after 12pm EST)

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. Generally, you'll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.

QB – Brock Purdy
RB – Zack Moss
RB – Rachaad White
WR – Tyreek Hill
FLEX – Christian McCaffrey
TE – Brevin Jordan
DST – Falcons DST

NFL DFS GPP Core:

(Finalized after 10am EST)

This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it's worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.

QB – Brock Purdy, Russel Wilson, Jalen Hurts, Kenny Pickett
RB – Kyren Williams, Derrick Henry, Zack Moss, Alvin Kamara
WR – Tyreek Hill, Josh Downs, George Pickens, Courtland Sutton, Brandon Aiyuk
TE – George Kittle, Pat Freiermuth, Trey McBride
DST – Whoever you want

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NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Seahawks vs. Cowboys

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

Over multiple runs of the contest sims, the most consistent positive leverage at captain is Zach Charbonnet. In this specific run he should up in 15% of the winning lineups while his projected ownership at captain is only 10%, giving us about 5% positive leverage over the field. The other consistent pieces in terms of positive captain at leverage were Aubrey and Pollard, both also positive in this run.

I’ll note quickly that I think the captain ownership on Charbonnet is a bit aggressive here, meaning that we likely have more edge with him in this slot than the simulations are assuming.

The most consistent negative leverage at captain came from both Metcalf and Lockett and, frankly, the SEA passing game in general. This game feels very clear to go one direction, and that direction doesn’t involve a lot of passing upside for Geno Smith and the boys.

FLEX ownership distributions

The highest positive leverage at FLEX goes to CeeDee Lamb and, to a lesser degree, Dak Prescott. You’ll also find the secondary SEA scorers to be valuable here mostly because you have to have someone from the team in a lineup and the sims don’t want to dedicate much salary to them. Both Lamb and Prescott consistently make up the highest positive leverage pieces and are consistently above the 70% mark in winning lineup exposure.

The highest negative leverage in most runs I did went to Brandin Cooks, who is just gaining a bit too much ownership steam to make Cowboys stacks work out. His projected ownership is around 21% in the FLEX but he shows up less than 10% of the time in winning lineups in most runs.

A note here: Both SEA and DAL defenses show up as negative leverage a lot of the time but it’s 2023 showdown so we already know that one of them will be optimal. Just set a rule that has at least one of them in every lineup and move along.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Looking at the ownership levels above, there actually doesn’t appear to be too high an aggregate set to avoid in this showdown. In laymans terms, I don’t expect a lot of heavy duping across more than just a couple lineups. Granted, I think the ownership is too low on DAL defense, but overall the secondary options and lack of SEA WR ownership is going to make for a spread out ownership slate.

The main FLEX combo that should have a bunch of duplications will be Prescott/Lamb/Pollard along with, I’m assuming, DAL defense. If you can stand to get off of Pollard or Dak that’s probably the most effective way to mitigate duplications in your portfolio. For the most part I think a focus on Dak/Lamb and a fade Pollard makes the most sense.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This showdown is cut and dry. You’ll start lineups with Dak/Lamb/DAL-DST and then add in a cheap SEA player to round things out. Pick a kicker you want and a cheap DAL punt option and move along.

If you want to galaxy brain it you can play for a low scoring affair from both sides, and if you want to donate money to the cause you can play for a SEA win with a 4-2 lean and Charbonnet/SEA-DST correlation.

In closing, make sure that you avoid Dak/Pollard together because of duplication concerns and aim to be different with your captain if you can stand to do so. My favorite way to build things out is a 4-2 DAL lean with one of Metcalf/Lockett as a bring back and either Pollard or the Cowboys DST at captain.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Dak Prescott (CPT)
  • DK Metcalf
  • Dolly Parton builds (Double-Dst)

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Zach Charbonnet (CPT)
  • Noah Fant (savings)
  • Dak/Ceedee (should be locked in, won't be)

Good luck and bink a unique

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  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
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NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Chargers vs. Ravens

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

Over multiple runs the highest positive leverage offered at captain was Cameron Dicker, which sucks. Always hate kicker captain slate, but with the LAC issues in the redzone and the bevy of expensive options to prioritize, it’s going to make plenty of sense.

In other runs we also found Justin Tucker (another Kicker) and Keaton Mitchell as strong captain options. In most runs Lamar Jackson was a significantly negative leveraged captain, but that’s mostly because he fits better as a FLEX option. Overall, if you want to use Lamar Jackson, there’s nothing wrong with that so long as you accept that you won’t be able to fit multiple expensive options at FLEX.

FLEX ownership distributions

Keenan Allen is the highest positive leverage at FLEX in nearly all the runs I did for this slate. His projected ownership is about 20% below what it should be according to the contest sims. The largest negative leverage at FLEX is Quentin Johnston because he is bad at football. It’s a tough scene.

The second largest negative leverage goes to Isaiah Likely, which is mostly because of lack of data I think. He’s probably priced appropriately and looks like an okay but not great option because of the ownership he is sure to demand.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

When we consider the likely dupes for this showdown, it’s clear that people will be paying down at CPT and jamming in FLEX combos. The main FLEX combo to be wary of is Lamar/Keenan/Herbert/Ekeler. Surrounding them are instances of OBJ and Zay Flowers, which makes the secondary LAC options more valuable in larger field GPPs since much less people will be going there.

Note that this is a great game to utilize DST, since they will likely be low owned and correlate well with two teams that like to run the ball in the redzone when possible.

That’s right people, it looks like another showdown where you lock in one DST, one kicker, and both QBs and just do whatever the fuck else you want and instantly win all the money. Great format!

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This should be a fun game overall where it is competitive all the way up to the fourth quarter, where the Chargers inevitably have a chance to win the game but make a crucial 4th quarter mistake and lose by 5 points.

Most people are going to be building 4-2 with a BAL lean, mostly because the secondary options and passing tree make more sense and are easier to navigate. That’s going to leave options like Guyton, Everett, and Parham as nice pieces to use in mitigating dupes with a 3-3 or 4-2 LAC lean.

My personal favorite angle here is going to be a Justin Tucker captain, Ravens DST FLEX lineup with Lamar and Gus Edwards. Is it disgusting? Yes. Yes it is. But the LAC offense is hamstrung by bad position players and the Ravens are arguably the best team in the league with a really strong defense.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Lamar Jackson (CPT)
  • Quentin Johnston (he's bad)
  • Non-DST lineups (it's showdown)

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Kicker captain (thanks I hate it)
  • LAC secondary options
  • Double BAL RB lineups

Good luck and bink a unique

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Sign up or upgrade your membership below!

  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
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  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.
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NFL DFS 2023 Week 12 Thoughts and Notes

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It'll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NFL DFS main slate breakdown:

Team stats, rates, and touchdown projections

  • The highest team total on the slate is KC at 26.50, the lowest on the week is NYG at 14.75.
  • The highest game total on the slate is BUF/PHI at 48.50.
  • Highest passing TD expectation is KC at 1.90 with BUF at 1.84 then a drop to LAR at 1.66.
  • Highest rushing TD expectation is PHI at 1.44 and then a significant drop to IND at 1.14.
  • Highest dropback expectations go to KC and BUF at 39.22 and 38.85.

Here are the top 10 overall stacks in median projection:

BUF and PHI at the top are no surprise, it’s two high powered offenses in the highest game total of the week, but the prices aren’t doing you any favors on stacking them. In fact, the teams in the best spots are appropriately expensive, which makes this week more difficult than the last few with obvious value spots to lean on.

Ownership is mostly in line as well, except KC is getting way too little attention and are probably the best stack on the slate.

Sorting by team total:

There are a couple things that stand out here for me:

  • KC is getting less ownership than BUF and PHI, but with a higher team total and higher passing TD expectation.
  • IND is super cheap and is getting less ownership than JAX who is the trendy cheap stack.
  • LAR is relatively expensive if you aim for Puka/Kupp but makes a lot of sense based on their team total and super low ownership.
  • HOU and BUF have relatively low team totals for their prices, it’ll be interesting to see how that affects ownership when we turn over the cards.
  • New Orleans with legit no ownership makes for a really interesting value stack.

Highest projected ownership

  • Jonathan Taylor chalk looks…. Okay. I think that 40% is too much and people are just kind of saying “fuck it” when the optimizer suggests him. But he’s a good play in a vacuum.
  • Trey McBride is way overvalued here, he’s appropriately priced and should not be played at 30%+ ownership.
  • Justin Watson lmao
  • Why is Zay Flowers showing up here?

I’m fine with some pieces here but it seems weird to overvalue Trey McBride. Both him and Jonathan Taylor feel a lot more like the Industry getting some tunnel vision on players that they have had interest on for a couple weeks and frankly there are just better spots.

I’m kind of blown away not to see Derrick Henry on this list? If he’s going to be low owned against the Panthers you just jam him in and move along.

Two players that I expect to catch a lot of steam up to lock are George Pickens and Jaylen Warren. There was a report that came out that mentioned the Steelers wanting to get them more involved this week, which is a good report to follow if the QB doesn’t suck shovel handles in his spare time. I’m not touching the Steelers until we see that Pickett isn’t the problem.

Undervalued options

Usually I have a little graphic here showing players that have a high LevX but this week I’m just going to call out a couple that I think are way undervalued overvalue based on sentiment:

  • Alvin Kamara has the highest expected fantasy points in the league, the 10th best utilization of all RBs in the league, and the Saints are in a pretty okay spot. I understand why he is low owned, because he’s pretty expensive and Taysom Hill’s package continues to grow like some radiation infested blob, but he has slate breaking upside and will be 5% owned.
  • Adam Thielen is looking like 5% owned or so and continues to have one of the best roles of any WR in the league. He had another 10+ target game last week and has only had one week with single digit PPR points in the last 10 weeks. He’s not even overpriced!
  • Derrick Henry has been giving some work to whoever the fuck that RB2 is on the team but he still has a couple ceiling games left in him and this spot makes a lot of sense. The Titans are home favorites against a trash team and Henry has had the largest win/loss splits in terms of fantasy output over the last 5 years. He’s going to be like…. 10% owned and a quarter of the ownership of Jonathan Taylor.

The really nice part here is with Henry/Thielen you can build a nice secondary correlation across your lineups.

Usage and expected fantasy points

There is really low ownership on the majority of the highest expected fantasy point players here. Why are people jamming in Jonathan Taylor of D’Andre Swift? Why is Travis Kelce only 11% owned? Joe Mixon at 6% owned? Weird week.

So let’s go ahead and sort this by Ownership now instead:

The more I look at this week the more I think the chalk is kind of bad. Jonathan Taylor and Trey McBride have good roles but you aren’t getting super big discounts on them and there are a lot of pivots in the price ranges. Justin Watson chalk is out of this fucking world weird. Demario Douglas chalk? I guess?

I think this is going to be the week that the chalk nerds finally get punished.

Overall slate notes

  • Main stacks are looking like BUF, PHI, and KC but if you need some value it makes sense to go with IND, JAX, and NO.
  • Secondary stacks are LAR and HOU, but it’s hard to justify them with the prices when other heavy hitters are in better spots.
  • I don’t think you can play Trey McBride this week unless it’s as part of a game stack or ARI stack, which helps you get the benefit of correlation. He’s appropriately priced without it.
  • Derrick Henry and Adam Thielen secondary stacks to the fuckin moon, my dudes and dudettes.
  • I’m not going to be touching PIT stacks until we see that Pickett can be the guy. I think he’s a bottom 5 QB in the league and Matt Canada being gone won’t change that much if any at all.
  • After looking at the chalk, I think having some pay down stacks and hitting the mid range fantasy upside guys makes a lot of sense. There’s some bad value chalk out there.
  • The the chalk gobblers die.
For more info and alerts on new articles, follow me at @Paydirt_DFS on Twitter!

NFL DFS Cash Game Core:

(Finalized after 12pm EST)

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. Generally, you'll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.

QB – Trevor Lawrence
RB – Jonathan Taylor
RB – Rachaad White
WR – Michael Pittman Jr.
WR – Justin Watson
TE – Trey McBride
DST – Chiefs DST

NFL DFS GPP Core:

(Finalized after 10am EST)

This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it's worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.

QB – Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr, Trevor Lawrence
RB – Alvin Kamara, Derek Henry, Jonathan Taylor, D'Andre Swift
WR – Adam Thielen, Devonta Smith, Stefon Diggs, Josh Downs, Chris Olave
TE – Dalton Kincaid, Travis Kelce, Dalton Shultz, Taysom Hill
DST – Whoever you want

Powerful tools for every sport

One site, one affordable price

  • Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
  • Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
  • Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.
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NFL DFS 2023 Thanksgiving Thoughts and Notes

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It'll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top 20 predicted dupes, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

NFL DFS Turkey Day slate breakdown:

The Thanksgiving breakdown I do is a bit different than I do for normal main slates. I am going to go through each game and give some thoughts and notes in regards to both the full slate and the showdown slate for each game. This won't be quite as in depth as the regular breakdowns, but I hope it helps everyone make some good decisions!

Game 1: Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers

It's hard to get a good grasp of Jordan Love and this Packers squad. The highs are pretty nice but the lows make him look like Zach Wilson with an accent. The last time these teams faced the Lions just ravaged the Packers o-line and Love couldn't get anything going whatsoever. I think Lafluer is a good gameplanner and can make adjustments to mitigate that this time around, so I would expect it to be much more competitive this time around.

Packers things:

  • Last week we saw Jayden Reed have a mini-breakout game, and he's been the Packers best WR for the majority of the season anyway.
  • Musgrave is on IR and Degura doubtful (or out, I don't remember) so it's going to be a heavy dose of KRAFT MAC AND CHEESE for the Packers. He should play basically every snap and makes for a strong punt.
  • The Packers RBs aren't in much better shape. It'll be a majority AJ Dillon assuming his groin holds up, but we should expect Patrick Taylor to get quite a bit of run here. His props are kind of wild and you can get o25 rushing yards for like +350, so if you can find that you should hit that!
  • The best combo you can run is Love/Reed/Doubs and I'm not sure you need to consider anything other than that. Watson is a fine flyer if you are playing the really large field stuff but he kind of sucks at football.

Lions things:

  • Amon-Ra St.Brown is the lynchpin of this offense and the obvious priority in this game. If you are building either a DET stack or a GB stack he's going to be in it.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs has taken over the “lead” back for the Lionts over the last two weeks with 50%+ of the snaps, but more importantly he has his 17%+ targets in those games. He makes for an awesome pairing as a stack piece which should help you be more unique than the traditional pairings in this game.
  • The best pairing you can make here is Goff/ARSB/LaPorta but you do get a significant ownership discount dropping from LaPorta to Reynolds.
  • My favorite combo for a DET stack is actually Goff/ARSB/Gibbs, and that's the route I will go with a stack today if I end up playing a DET one.

Showdown things:

  • Patrick Taylor is a priority on the GB side as a value piece while ARSB is a priority on the Lions side.
  • Kraft makes for a strong value as well, though I'm sure people will be on him with Musgrave on IR.
  • The highest duped FLEX combo is going to be ARSB/Goff/Gibbs/Reed, so if you have that I would consider finding some ways to be more unique.
  • Lions should win this one but I do expect it to be much more competitive. Building with a 4-2 DET lean with Gibbs at captain makes the most sense to me.

Game 1: Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders

Dallas is going to be the highest owned stack by a longshot today and I guess? It's justified? But man does this feel like a typical Cowboys let down spot to me. They just finished beating up on some really low quality opponents and while I don't think that WAS is a good team I think they have more upside than either of the last two. I think my main thought here is if DAL covers the spread (they are like 14 point favorites) it feels like they do it through their defense and not necessarily through their offense. As far as WAS goes, so long as Howell doesn't throw for 3 interceptions I think he will throw for 2+ TDs. This game is going to be competitive and I think you can kind of stack it every which way.

Cowboys things:

  • Tony Pollard scored a touchdown last week! It was incredible. The correlation play between Pollard and the Cowboys DST is well in play again, as is the stack of Dak/Pollard/Lamb.
  • The Cowboys WR room has been interesting and Cooks/Tolbert both make for strong value options on this slate. Especially with such a high total there should be touchdowns to go around.

Commanders things:

  • The Commanders are the pass heaviest team in the league by most advanced metrics and that shouldn't change today.
  • The ball has been spread around a lot for them, but that isn't really an issue with how cheap the receiving options are for WAS. They can pay off on relatively low volume and each have strong ceilings due to the passing volume.
  • I'm pretty sure that Howell is still on pace to break the record for most sacks taken in a season, but even if he isn't he is still taking like 5 sacks a game. Cowboys DST will be justifiably popular.
  • Gibson should play today and makes for an interesting stacking piece with the receiving work on a team that projects to play with a significant trailing script most of the game.

Showdown things:

  • Most people are going to be stacking 5-1 with a DAL lean and that makes sense with how large this projected spread is.
  • Cowboys DST is going to have a lot of ownership at captain. I don't think you should do that, it'll be highly duped, but I do think they make plenty strong of an option at FLEX with a strong floor.
  • The highest duped FLEX combo will be Lamb/Prescott/CowboysDST/Howell.
  • My favorite route here is going to be a 4-2 DAL lean, but a 3-3 WAS captain is really spicy and I think it is viable. With the passing volume for the Commanders I could see Samuel/McLaurin/Thomas getting enough volume and a touchdown to allow the heavy hitting DAL options in the FLEX to thrive.
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Paydirt NFL DFS Play Action Thanksgiving

Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

Chalk DFS Plays:

  • Brian Robinson Jr. (22.27%)
  • Tony Pollard (20.38%)
  • Terry McLaurin (15.43%)
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (14.12%)
  • Logan Thomas (12.10%)

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Brian Robinson Jr.

Brian Robinson Jr. looks like an ok play in a vacuum. However, once we factor in ownership it looks like a perfect spot to pivot in GPPs. AJ Dillon and David Montgomery both deserve consideration at the RB position. AJ Dillon in particular stands out with both a higher median and ceiling at considerably less ownership.

Tony Pollard

Tony Pollard is another player that looks fine until we factor in ownership. In addition to David Montgomery once again popping up, his backfield mate Gibbs looks like the preferred pivot. Additionally, you can consider DK Metcalf and Brandon Aiyuk as pivot options in the FLEX.

Terry McLaurin

Terry McLaurin looks like one of the stronger chalk options. This is largely due to his cheap price relative to his ceiling. Notably, Deebo Samuel is the only positional pivot within +/- 3 median points. Furthermore, the higher projected pivots are all at the RB position which may make roster construction tricky.

Jahmyr Gibbs

Despite projecting for double digit ownership, Gibbs still looks to be incredibly undervalued on this slate. He's shown up multiple times now as a pivot to higher owned players. Moreover, when you compare him to his own pivots his median and ceiling are significantly higher.

Logan Thomas

Logan Thomas sits atop the pivot finder at his price tier. The closest positional pivot is Jake Ferguson, however, at similar ownership it's not much of a pivot. The real pivot play here is likely taking the $1k savings by dropping to Kraft, or spending up to get to Kittle.

DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts

Both DET RBs look like solid pivots in GPPs with Jahmyr Gibbs standing out as one of the most undervalued plays on the slate. Based on ownership, WAS pieces is going to be quite popular despite the general consensus that Dallas hammers them. Consequently, a way to take advantage of this in GPPs might be to roll out a WAS stack. By pairing low-owned Sam Howell with his chalk pass catchers you can offset the ownership but still take advantage of them doing well. It's worth noting that CMC, Amon-Ra, and Lamb were not discussed. All 3 of these players are similarly priced and will be popular. Therefore, there's not much use in discussing pivoting from 20% owned CMC to 20% owned Amon-Ra.

Good luck and let's bake some bread!

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  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

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Paydirt NFL DFS Play Action Week 11

Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

Chalk DFS Plays:

  • Devin Singletary (33.16%)
  • Trey McBride (32.10%)
  • Tank Dell (24.49%)
  • Brian Robinson Jr. (23.05%)
  • Tyreek Hill (18.54%)

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Devin Singletary

There is simply no reason Singletary should be the highest projected owned player on the slate. Moreover, his median projection and ceiling don't even standout amidst his price tier. Devin Singletary looks like a clear fade in GPPs with Jerome Ford and Jaylen Warren as phenomenal pivots at the RB position. Alternatively, you can pivot to several pass catcher in the FLEX such as Kincaid, Schultz, and DJ Moore.

Trey McBride

This week must be a game log watcher's wet dream as McBride went off last week similar to Singletary and now both are poised to have massive ownership. However, unlike Singletary McBride has far fewer pivot options. Furthermore, the pivots that are available both carry double-digit ownership as well. Dalton Kincaid looks like the preferred option if fading McBride.

Tank Dell

Despite the ownership Tank Dell once again looks like a solid play. Notably, Deebo Samuel shows up as a low-owned pivot option even though Brock Purdy is expected to carry ownership. Deebo could potentially be a good 2-for-1 low-owned play in GPPs. Garrett Wilson looks like the strongest direct pivot. However, it requires you to somewhat trust Zach Wilson which is not ideal.

Brian Robinson Jr.

Many men, many, many, many men should be playing Brian Robinson Jr. He projects as the strongest play in his price tier and gets a great matchup against the atrocious Giants. At the RB position, both Rachaad White and Derrick Henry are viable pivots at well under 10% ownership.

Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill is a strong play and has one of the highest ceilings in NFL DFS. However, this week actually provides us with a multitude of high-upside options. Furthermore, the popular roster construction is going to include a spend up with Tyreek being the most popular. A potential strategy in GPPs may be to just include this price tier as a part of your main stack and rotate through the options.

DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts

Devin Singletary and Brian Robinson Jr. will be the most popular RB pairing. While Robinson Jr. looks like a strong option, Singletary can be faded comfortably. Based on ownership, the HOU/ARI game is going to be extremely popular so be cognizant of how much exposure you have to those pieces in your lineups. As an alternative to those teams, DAL and DET look undervalued despite two of the highest team totals on the slate. Players such as Jerome Ford, Jaylen Warren, and Dalton Kincaid are strong pivots that will allow you to maintain the popular roster build without eating as much ownership.

Good luck and let's bake some bread!

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  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.

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NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Broncos vs. Vikings

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

The highest positive leverage offered at captain in most runs came from Will Lutz, who routinely had upwards of 10% leverage over projected ownership. Other players that showed up frequently as viable captains were Javonte Williams, Russell Wilson, and TJ Hockenson.

The highest negative leverage offered at captain in the simulations belongs to KJ Osborn, who was routinely -5% given and was rarely in the positives at all. Other options that were routinely lower in the exposures than the projected ownership were Greg Joseph and Jordan Addison.

Basically, the Broncos look like the team to utilize in the captain while the Vikings are frequently overvalued.

FLEX ownership distributions

By far the highest positive leverage offered at the FLEX is Russell Wilson, who shows up in the winning lineups in contest sims there at nearly twice his projected ownership. After him, Joshua Dobbs and Will Lutz are the most consistently positive leverage options on the slate.

The most consistently negative leverage options at FLEX are Alexander Mattison and KJ Osborn. Both are typically 10% overvalued based on the contest sims and didn’t show up as positive leverage in any of the runs I did.

A runner up for negative leverage offered is Jerry Jeudy, who I think hit on Ciara and now Russell Wilson doesn’t fuck with him. Tough scenes.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

That is a lot of Will Lutz at captain! He makes for a strong option, but he’s likely to come with a lot of duplicates so you’ll need to be careful about how you build with him. Both Kickers look like they will carry heavy dupes as people use them to jam in the main FLEX combo.

That combo, by the way, looks to be: Dobbs/Wilson/Hockenson/Javonte Williams. With the way that these offenses are distributed, this isn’t much of a surprise. The thing I’ll say is that the Broncos receiving options are not garnering enough ownership, as we don’t see much Sutton/Jeudy in the top owned combos, so focusing on a legit DEN passing attack rather than using Javonte Williams is probably the best route to manage dupes.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This showdown…. Kind of sucks? The fantasy relevant options for both sides are kind of meh and will carry big ownership, and both offenses are capable enough that the DSTs are likely overowned. Both kickers are demanding ownership and both deserve it. Slates like this are rough because the best way to build is likely the right way and it still feels shakey.

The best way to handle slates like these is typically just to play smaller field contests and make smart pivots. If people are jamming in that core combo of Dobbs/Williams/Russ/Hockenson, just make sure that you avoid one of those four and use the others. If people are jamming in kickers at captain, use them at FLEX instead and pay up at captain to give yourself a better shot at a unique construction path.

For me personally, I think a DEN passing attack OR a DEN shutdown 5-1 make the most sense. The DEN DST is going to be relatively underowned based on Dobbs history, and the betting markets are probably overvaluing him because of the heroics last week. Correlating the DEN DST with Javonte Williams and only using either Hockenson or Addison as a come back seems like it could play well.

If you would rather play for a higher scoring affair, playing with Courtland Sutton captain and fading Javonte Williams makes the most sense to me. Fill that in with Russell Wilson, Joshua Dobbs, and TJ Hockenson at the FLEX and play some weir low priced punts to mitigate dupes.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Greg Jospeh
  • Jordan Addison (CPT)
  • Kicker captains

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Denver 5-1 stomps
  • Denver DST
  • Russell Wilson FLEX

Good luck and bink a unique

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NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Bengals vs. Ravens

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

  • The highest positive leverage offered at captain tonight is Joe Burrow at a +6.77% leverage point over the field
  • The highest negative leverage offered at captain tonight is Joe Mixon at a -4.5% leverage point under the field

There were varying results when it came to positive leverage in the runs I went through, including runs with Ja’Marr Chase and Lamar Jackson offering the best marks. Those three players are the key to this slate regardless of captain or FLEX, but the way that you use them dictates a lot of how you want to build out the FLEX combos.

On the other hand, Joe Mixon was a consistently negative offering at captain and didn’t show as a top 3 option once in the runs I did. You can safely remove him from your captain pool.

FLEX ownership distributions

  • The highest positive leverage at FLEX goes to Ja’Marr Chase and Lamar Jackson, each well over 20% better than the field is giving them credit for.
  • The highest negative leverages go to Evan McPherson and Mark Andrews, who are both consistently negative sources of leverage at -10% under the field.

There are some interesting conclusions drawn from this. The models view the value had from the receiving and RB options as more valuable than that of the Bengals kicker, and because of how run heavy the Ravens offense is, Andrews ceiling doesn’t compete with that of the other expensive options.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

These ownership numbers are really high, you need to be cognizant of your duplication mitigation tonight for sure.

Looking at the captains that should have the highest duplication counts, we see lots of really cheap options as well as both defenses. The FLEX combo that you should be avoiding is looking like Lamar/Chase/Mixon/Burrow, as that combo is very prevalent in the lineups above. Both Gus Edwards and Tyler Boyd look to be main sources of value to fit the big FLEX combo, so steering clear of one or both can help you in mitigating dupes.

We really don’t see a lot of the third tier receiving options here, with OBJ and Trent Irvin both mostly absent (outside of the side OBJ Captain lineup) so looking to add them into your mix can help a lot towards win equity.

This slate is really just going to come down to the third tier options. Jackson/Chase/Burrow should all be high owned and deserve to be in the vast majority of lineups. Avoiding Joe Mixon is the easiest (and most +EV) way to add qin equity and lower dupes.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

The Ravens offense has been scoring really well lately, but very little has come on the back of Lamar Jackson. In this spot against a division rival, we don’t usually see offenses tick up and I would think we see more of the same from the Ravens, who have been spreading the offense around and finding a lot of success.

On the other side of the ball, the Bengals really didn’t look all that great until late last week and there’s going to be inconsistency with Chase’s back issue and no Tee Higgins. I think there’s a clear case for a more run-centric gameplan here if they get a lead, especially considering the short week and window.

All that said, I have a couple leans:

  • Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Ja’Marr Chase are where you start, bar none. There’s going to be opportunity to get off of them if need be, and if you do that I would be getting off Chase for his back issues, but I think all three of those guys are priorities.
  • I love OBJ in this spot, and I think he makes for one of the best plays on the slate. They have been ramping up his involvement in the offense in the last couple weeks and he’s looking better and better.
  • I would be looking to build for a CIN lean, but that’s mostly just because it’s the more affordable side.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Joe Mixon (CPT)
  • Evan McPherson
  • Keaton Mitchell

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Ja'Marr Chase (CPT)
  • OBJ
  • Lamar Jackson (should be 100%, won't be)

Good luck and bink a unique

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  • Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.