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NFL DFS: Tips, tricks, and how to play it

NFL DFS: Explanation and value

If you have never heard of NFL DFS, you were either born in the last decade or live under a very large and sound proof rock. It's one of the most popular forms of entertainment in the United States. This is because it represents a fun and easy way to get some skin in the game with your favorite teams. Likewise, it's a wildly profitably hobby and profession to those that prove to have the right set of skills and dedication. You may have seen a couple pictures of guys holding big checks and celebrating a huge payday from it.

Image of Scott Hanson winning a $2,000,000 dollar prize at a DFS championship
Image of Scott Hanson winning a $2,000,000 dollar prize at a DFS championship

If you have never heard of DFS, it stands for Daily Fantasy Sports. It's a form of skill game that combines multiple different types of sports betting concepts together into a fun and exciting event. You'll combine pieces of prop betting and parlay betting to create lineups based on a salary cap for your players. There are a multitude of sports available in the DFS contests on the major sites, but NFL DFS is by far the most popular. Considering the massive volume of players for the sport, it also maintains the highest prizes for winning players.

Reasons to play NFL DFS

Typically, people find NFL DFS by migrating over from their season long leagues. This is mostly caused by somebody sniping them on the waiver once too many times and them getting tired of it, but there's a variety of reasons people make that switch. Regardless, if you have played season long fantasy leagues you likely have the basic knowledge to jump into DFS as a beginner.

At it's core, NFL DFS (And daily fantasy sports in general) should be looked at as a form of entertainment. Granted, many people get caught up in the excitement and end up having negative experiences. It's important to maintain a level of honesty with yourself in the way you play, how much you play, and if you are playing for the right reasons. While this post won't go in depth on it, developing a goal for your play is an important step once you have gotten the hang of things.

Finally, the main reason to play NFL DFS is to have fun. At the end of the day, no matter your short or long term goals, if you aren't having fun doing it you shouldn't be doing it at all! Granted, there are different definitions of fun for different individuals, but it's an important thing to keep in mind. With that being said, everything you invest into NFL DFS either as a hobby or a job should come with the feeling that you are doing it to make the experience better.

Scoring basics and site differences

The two major DFS sites are Draftkings and Fanduel (image from dailyfantasysports101)
The two major DFS sites are Draftkings and Fanduel (image from dailyfantasysports101)

Once you have decided to jump in and try out NFL DFS, you'll have to make a decision on where you want to play. Down the line, you'll likely end up playing on multiple sites, but from the start it's better to play at just one. So, it's important to know the scoring differences and how they affect your choices.

The main difference that you'll have to account for is PPR or half-PPR. If you don't know, PPR stands for point per reception and the full or half point(s) award is important. Draftkings is a full PPR site where as Fanduel is half PPR. The basic influence this has will be prioritizing receivers on Draftkings and rushers on Fanduel. However, it is more nuanced than that in practice.

On top of the scoring format, you'll have to pay attention to the roster structure on your site of choice. Luckily, when it comes to NFL DFS, the roster construction format is the same for both sites. You'll choose:

  • One quarter back
  • Two running backs
  • Three wide receivers
  • One tight end
  • One FLEX player (either a running back, wide receiver, or tight end)
  • One defense for a team
Lineup creation page at Draftkings for NFL DFS
Lineup creation page at Draftkings for NFL DFS

Finally, you should know about how each of the sites pricing algorithms differ. Without getting too deep in the weeds, both sites utilize an algorithm to price out the players so that you have to work towards fitting them under the salary cap. Softer pricing means you don't have to work as hard to fit the best players. Typically, Fanduel pricing is softer and Draftkings pricing is tighter.

General strategy and tips and tricks for NFL DFS

Although there can be a lot of nuance and complexity when it comes to any sport for DFS, there are typically a base set of things you should always try to do. Here are some important concepts you need to consider to find success:

  • The first thing you should do when creating an NFL DFS lineup is decide on what team you are stacking. A stack is where you use the QB and at least one of his pass catchers. This is vital in creating strong correlation between your players to maximize upside.
  • Most weeks you will find that there is a cheap RB you need to make a decision on that will be highly owned. Typically we prefer to pay down at RB and pay up at WR if possible. This is because RB volume is usually more predictable, so paying less for it helps overall.
  • If you have access to ownership projections (which you will as a subscriber to paydirtdsf.com) you'll want to pay attention to risky players. If a risky player is projected to be low owned, you should be more willing to take a shot on them. Meanhilw if they project to be high owned, it is likely better to pass or “fade” them.
  • Defenses in DFS are almost completely random. Not only should you pick defense last in your lineups, but you should ignore them when choosing your stacks. One of the largest edges is people still considering defenses heavily in their process.
  • Typically, you'll want to utilize players with robust fantasy profiles. To clarify, look for players that can contribute in multiple stat categories. This strengthens your floor and helps to make a more accessible ceiling.

Starting with these tips and tricks in mind will put you on the right path in NFL DFS!

Game theory, leverage, and Paydirt models

NFL DFS is a unique fantasy sport because it is a combination of both linear and event based scoring. To clarify, NBA DFS is more linear because the scoring happens consistently. Meanwhile, MLB DFS is event based because the bulk of the scoring comes from single events. NFL DFS is a combination of both, with linear scoring for players aided by the ceiling of event outcomes. Understanding how points are scored is important, because it allows you to make decision based on appropriate leverage.

When you begin to consider things like leverage, it's important for you to have models that show where to find it. Places like Rotogrinders.com have strong projection models, they typically lack this kind of insight. The models here at Paydirt show you exactly where the good and bad leverage plays are with LevX. This stat takes a players projection, upside, and ownership into account to give a real understanding of a players value on the slate. When combined with a full range of a players outcomes, not just median projections, you find an incredibly powerful set of metrics.

A screenshot of the NFL DFS Range of Outcomes model for Paydirt subscribers
A screenshot of the NFL DFS Range of Outcomes model including LevX for Paydirt subscribers

Leverage is only part of the game, as you still need to build competitive lineups. Paying attention to things like team totals and play calling tendencies is vital for capturing the upside for your stacks. You can always go to places like pinnacle.com and check out totals, or you can find them here at Paydirt! You'll also find projected passing and rushing touchdowns in the models which you won't find other places.

A screenshot of the NFL DFS Team Vegas Baselines with touchdown projections for Paydirt subscribers
A screenshot of the NFL DFS Team Vegas Baselines with touchdown projections for Paydirt subscribers

Final thoughts

NFL DFS is by far the most popular sport in fantasy and provides boundless opportunity to those that dedicate to it. It's an incredibly fun, and addicting, hobby to subscribe to and there is a never ending stream of information and knowledge you can find. You'll always be able to find something others are missing. Even if you don't want to dive that deep, you can make decisions that enhance the experience for you. No matter your skill level or dedication, Remember the first rule: It's always about having fun!

Here's to another year of NFL DFS and let's get to work!

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Esports: How to play League of Legends DFS

What is League of Legends DFS

There are a lot of sports (and esports) to pick from on DFS sites these days, but most people only focus on the main traditional sports. Namely the majority of players are only playing NFL, NBA, and MLB. However, there are a lot of gems in the more niche categories including League of Legends. If you don't know what League of Legends is, it is a competitive MOBA with international reach. It is one of the most popular competitive games in the world only behind it's predecessor DOTA2 and the first person shooter CSGO. Indeed, if you haven't heard of the game, you are missing out on a global phenomenon.

Here is an image from esportsinsider on a recent article on viewership:

Metrics on global esports viewership from November 2021
Metrics on global esports viewership from November 2021

So what is League of Legends DFS? Well, it is a daily fantasy where you fill out the salary cap of your team by rostering the (hopefully) best performing players for that slate. It is what we call a “correlative” sport, where as the players scores are highly connected and dependent upon one another. In correlative sports, stacking is a vitally important concept, but we will talk about that later. the other important point is that League of Legends DFS is played in a “captain style” format. This means that one of the players you choose to roster will be the captain of your team, which makes their salary and outcomes 1.5 more than normal.

League of Legends DFS pros and cons

Unfortunately, since League of Legends DFS is a niche offering, the prize pools can be lacking. However, that very downside enables dedicated players the benefit of less serious competition and greater edge. Likewise, when other sports are in the offseason, those prize pools grow. Meanwhile, niche grinders can reap the rewards of having honed their skill.

In conclusion, League of Legends DFS is a fantastic product and something any DFS players should try. When you consider the correlative nature and significant edge to be had, you would be crazy not to. So how do you find succes? Let's go over a couple basics and tips and tricks.

Roster construction

Let's take a look at how you will be building your lineups:

A screenshot of the roster construction options on Draftkings for League of Legends DFS
A screenshot of the roster construction options on Draftkings for League of Legends DFS

As you can see above, you'll have to fill out a roster of seven players. You'll need to pick a TOP, JNG, MID, ADC, SUP and TEAM player as well as a captain. The captain can be any player in any position except for TEAM. It should be noted that whatever position you choose for captain you will have two of, as you'll choose another player at that position to fill out that specific spot. finally, it's important to know who is starting for teams so you don't accidentally roster a substitute. there will be a resource for this later in the article.

League of Legends DFS basics, tips, and tricks

Here is a short list of basic concepts you need to know for League of Legends DFS:

  • You're almost always going to stack two teams together, which means that you will have four players from one team and three from another .
  • If you are going to one off, you should one off either the TEAM or the SUP positions (We have done a bunch of testing on this).
  • Captain priority should go to the team that you believe has the most upside (this is accounted for in projections) however you can lower your dupes by going with a captain from a lower upside team.
  • Likewise, Captain priority based on position goes ADC -> MID -> JNG (gap) -> TOP and you should never SUP captain in GPPs. As noted in the roster construction portion, you will have two of this position, so you need to focus on upside.
  • The models are built to account for wins and losses, but it's worth nothing that League of Legends DFS is a binary outcome DFS sport and is close to zero-sum. This means that players on losing teams will almost never be useful in GPPs. This is similar to MMA DFS.
  • The objective here is to stack the two teams that score the most points when they win through high kill games, so consider it a two game parlay with player props included.

DFS Trends and nuance

Granted, there is a lot more nuance to consider as well. As you play more, you'll notice patterns to learn from in how the field acts. An example is how ownership changes based on sportsbook info. For example, people will typically focus heavily on favorites due to the nature of near zero-sum outcomes. This allows for leverage to be easily gained by mixing favorites with underdogs. Likewise, going with “double dogs” is a noted sharp strategy employed by many strong DFS players. You will always want to be reviewing and studying what it takes to consistently finish well.

What are other strong players doing? Well, they are subscribed to Paydirt (do that here), where you'll find exceptionally strong projections models.

Utilizing Paydirt models

You won't find stronger or more in depth projections for esports outside of Paydirt. Here is a look at just one piece of the League of Legends models:

A snapshot of the Paydirt League of Legends player projections
A snapshot of the Paydirt League of Legends player projections

The League of Legends models here at Paydirt offer you a multitude of options to make the best decisions possible for your contests. You'll find macro statistics like stack rankings and metrics that measure a teams efficiency and upside, as well as player level projections and stats based on proven methodology. But that's not all! You'll also have access to a range of outcomes model, showing how often players find their upside and what to expect from them.

A snapshot of the Paydirt League of Legends Range of Outcomes tab
A snapshot of the Paydirt League of Legends Range of Outcomes tab

Once you use the Stacks page to pick the teams you want to stack, you'll look to the projections and range of outcomes tabs to pick the players with the upside to carry you to the top of the GPP. It's a macro-micro process that is repeatable and powerful. In sum, there's a reason some of the best esports DFS players subscribe here!

Other resources

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Community Conversations Episode 3: Win Equity Maximization

Welcome to my new series, Community Conversations! This is going to be a set of videos done by me (and whoever else wants to be involved) based on conversations from the community discord. They will likely focus on things like game theory and some general math concepts.

This episode focused maximizing win equity and playing lineups that correctly fit the contests you are playing. Lots of players may be building quality lineups that are terrible for the contests they play and this video aims to show exactly how that happens. Includes a good visual as well as a bad one in two very different formats!

If you have questions or comments on the video feel free to reach out! Likewise, if you have some ideas for future episodes don't hesitate to give some suggestions!

I hope you enjoy this and if you aren't already subscribed over at the youtube channel, do so now!

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Community Conversations Episode 3: content creation and authenticity

Welcome to my new series, Community Conversations! This is going to be a set of videos done by me (and whoever else wants to be involved) based on conversations from the community discord. They will likely focus on things like game theory and some general math concepts.

This episode focused on content creation! James went into the relationship between content creators and content consumers, as well as giving thoughts on how content should be created. If you have ever wanted to be in content creation, you'll enjoy this video!

If you have questions or comments on the video feel free to reach out! Likewise, if you have some ideas for future episodes don't hesitate to give some suggestions!

I hope you enjoy this and if you aren't already subscribed over at the youtube channel, do so now!

Community Conversations Ep. 3
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Community Conversations Episode 2: Pitch type research and BvP

Welcome to my new series, Community Conversations! This is going to be a set of videos done by me (and whoever else wants to be involved) based on conversations from the community discord. They will likely focus on things like game theory and some general math concepts.

In this episode I talk about useless or niche MLB research. I mostly go over the topics of Pitch Type research and BvP and how/why they are hard to utilize.

If you have questions or comments on the video feel free to reach out! Likewise, if you have some ideas for future episodes don't hesitate to give some suggestions!

I hope you enjoy this and if you aren't already subscribed over at the youtube channel, do so now!

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Community Conversations Episode 1: Research, 1v1s, and Time Investment

Welcome to my new series, Community Conversations! This is going to be a set of videos done by me (and whoever else wants to be involved) based on conversations from the community discord. They will likely focus on things like game theory and some general math concepts. In this episode I talk about research for DFS and valuable time investment. I also went into some thoughts on 1v1 questions and how wasteful they are.

If you have questions or comments on the video feel free to reach out! Likewise, if you have some ideas for future episodes don't hesitate to give some suggestions!

I hope you enjoy this and if you aren't already subscribed over at the youtube channel, do so now!

Video of the conversation
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MLB True AVG, what it is, and how to use it

PayDirt MLB Image

Creating new MLB analytics and metrics is nothing new to me. It's an important exercise to take a descriptive stat and work around it in ways that can create something predictive. Especially when it comes to MLB, we need to look to do this frequently to maintain an edge. That being said, below is a video on True AVG, what it is, and how to use it!

The model can be found in any of the MLB True AVG reports on the site and in the Binomial Projection Model. Both are free to view!

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MLB Regression and Why it Matters

PayDirt MLB Image

I'm going to show you a series of images regarding MLB regression, and they will all have something in common. It'll be a pretty important thing, and it'll be very apparent.

  • Series of MLB regression images for pitchers over a 5-game sample

Definitions and Math

Did you catch on? If you didn't, that's okay! I won't judge you for it. Basically, what we are looking at here is regression in action. I've taken three unrelated pitchers and ran some rolling 5-game graphs showing their batting average allowed as well as their BABIP for the sample. Now, you'll notice that the two graphs look really similar, and that's no coincidence. BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, moves in step with batting average allowed. the difference is that BABIP can be heavily affected by a number of outside factors and thus can lead to luck interfering in the results.

See, us in the statistics world don't really like luck. It's a bit messy. It causes issues in projections and predictions. It's unruly and inherently difficult to manage. We can't count on it to do what we want. But what we can count on is regression to step in and work it's magic, which is to allow luck to ebb and flow.

Regression, by definition, is “a statistical method that attempts to determine the strength and character of the relationship between dependent variables and other independent variables. Frankly I don't care much for formal definitions, so in layman's terms: regression is used to make assumptions about something based on outside influences or variables. We use it a lot in the DFS and betting world. We look to predict future performances based on stats and metrics that we know end up at a certain point. Typically the way you'll hear it phrased is that “this or that will regress to the mean”, which just means it'll end up at the average point eventually.

Applications and Strategy

So, why does this matter? Well, when something is considered a “luck” stat, we generally assume that it is regressive. BABIP is one of those stats, and we know it will eventually regress to a league averages. Other instances of this are things like home run per flyball (HR/FB) and left on base percentage (LOB%). We know that, for the most part, these stats are going to end up around league average or within a standard deviation of it.

The last point that I'll make about regression is that it doesn't happen slowly over a long sample. Regression is a vengeful bitch, and it happens quickly and with bravado. So we know that regression to the mean will come, and we know it will come quickly. With that info, we can do some pretty radical stuff.

Namely, when we see a stat that we know will regress to the mean sitting at a large deviation from that mean, we can leverage the upcoming correction. Specifically for MLB we can look at these stats like BABIP, HR/FB, and LOB% and attack pitchers who have been far outproducing the league averages.

Example of MLB Regression

You'll notice in the images above that I highlighted a specific point for each pitcher's graph. For each one, I chose a point in time when their BABIP was well below the league average (usually between .280 and .295) and right before the correction came. Let's take a look at Jose Berrios again:

Jose Berrios 5-game rolling graphs for 2021
Jose Berrios' 5-game rolling averages for 2021

Coming into that point on the graph, he had a stretch of three games with just one earned run. His BABIP was at .176. His next three games? He faced the Angels, Nationals, and White Sox and gave up 12 runs and a .488 BABIP. This is a perfect illustration of what regression to the mean is. You can get away with something for a while, but the longer you do the more violent the correction.

Notes and caveats

This is a really powerful method for making predictions, but it's not an exact application. To be clear, random variation is always going to be random. Just because we know that something is very likely to happen doesn't mean that we can predict when it will happen. The crux of this exercise is that you can line things up perfectly in your assessment of a situation and still get nothing from it. that's just how things go sometimes. The goal here is to be able to leverage outcomes to a maximum expected value, not hit the predictions frequently. Likewise, the highest payouts come on the most unlikely hits.

This kind of method can be used for a wide range of applications. Any time you can measure how likely something happens against how often it has happened you can make assumptions about future performances. Granted, not everything that happens will regress to league averages. However, if something regresses to a career average and has a long sample, you can utilize that in similar ways. Look for things that have an ebb and flow and you may have something to leverage with regression.

This type of method is the engine behind the True AVG models on the site, as well as a driving factor in the MLB simulations. The MLB Range of Outcomes algorithms utilize this logic to better predict future performance. If this stuff sounds powerful and you don't already have a subscription to the site, it's in your best interest to get one!

Regardless, I hope you learned something reading this and if you didn't I hope you enjoyed it anyway! Join the community, grab a subscription, and let's bake some bread.