Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.
For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Captain ownership distributions
In this specific run and in quite a few others it was Tony Pollard with the highest positive leverage offered at captain. His projected ownership is too low at around 11% and it makes for him having a good leg up on the rest of the expensive upside options on this slate. He’s a good balance play.
The most consistent negative leverage offered on this slate goes to Dallas Goedert, though both Jake Elliot and A.J. Brown were found towards the bottom quite often as well. Jake Elliot is a projection thing, as the Eagles are not a field goal oriented team, while A.J. Brown is fully based on his price being too high for the slot.
FLEX ownership distributions
As far as FLEX plays go, the highest consistent positive leverage offered in the sim runs I did went to Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. The combo was almost always in the top 3 in terms of positive leverage offered and never fell below a +10% over the projected ownership. Starting with that combo is going to make a lot of sense tonight.
With regards to the negative side of things, we have Devonta Smith, Tony Pollard, and the Eagles DST as some of the most consistently negative pieces. Smith is getting dinged pretty heavily with Goedert back, even if Goedert may end up being more of a decoy. Pollard makes for a better captain, while the Eagles DST (and Cowboys DST for that matter) are both going to look really bad in a game with an over/under at 52.
Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid
Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
Looking at a couple things here:
- The overall ownership sums are pretty low, which is a signal of lower dupe counts than normal. We typically expect around 215-230 sum ownership for the highest dupe counts.
- Lots of cheap captains make a bunch of sense as people are trying to force in really expensive combinations of star-studded teams.
- The main FLEX combo is Lamb/Hurts/Prescott/Pollard
- Both kickers are used at a pretty high rate here as people try to avoid using pure punts
The main take away for me here is that if you simply go with A.J. Brown instead of CeeDee Lamb, you can avoid a really large chunk of dupes and maintain your upside. Outside of that, there are some roster construction choices you can make that lower your dupes naturally. For instance, either building with a more expensive captain (Pollard or Lamb come to mind) you can put yourself in a different set of decisions to be made entirely and still play really popular options.
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
This slate is really difficult and there aren’t a lot of easy things you can do to find edge. It’s going to come down to what stud ends up breaking the slate.
The things that we can feel confident about are correlations and where the points come from. If you build with a WR at captain, you are going to want their QB in the FLEX. If you build around Tony Pollard at captain, you are likely fading Dak Prescott. If you build around D’Andre Swift, you are probably fading Jalen Hurts (scary but lots of relative value in that route). Slates like this require you to be extra careful with the correlations like that.
The way I look at this slate is pretty simple: I think both QBs are in terrific spots, so I will simply play both QBs. Devonta Smith is off my radar on a slate with so many strong options, and I think the decision you are really making is between Lamb and AJB. If you are playing in smaller fields, you probably just jam in Lamb, but in larger field stuff or if you are eating a lot of high owned options you are going with AJB.
One rule I would make is avoiding both kickers together, as that is going to lead to heavy duping and lowers your ceiling a lot in and of itself.
My favorite build path is either a Lamb captain with Hurts and Prescott as priorities in the FLEX or a Pollard captain with no Dak. Considering how much the models like Lamb and Prescott, I’m more inclined to go that route and fade Pollard. It’ll end up being a 4-2 DAL I think, though I haven’t quite built yet.
Some options that look overvalued:
- Dallas Goedert
- A.J. Brown (CPT)
- Double kicker lineups
Some options that look undervalued:
- Expensive captains
- Tony Pollard (CPT)
- Dallas DST (Loins play)
Good luck and bink a unique
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