Welcome to the CFB DFS Triple Option here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the CFB DFS slate. This article is NOT used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Mahki Hughes (RB, TUL) stands out at the running back position with the highest ownership on the slate at 56.06% and a median projection of 22.57 versus SMU. At the quarterback spot, Jayden Maiava (UNLV) will be popular with projected ownership of 37.78%. Notably, based on ownership many lineups will feature both Maiava and his WR. At the wide receiver position, Ricky White (UNLV) is commanding substantial attention with 55.79% ownership and a median projection of 22.67.
- UNLV, TROY, UT and OKST look to be the primary choices for stacking based on the high ownership of their players. Notably, seven of the ten highest-owned players on the slate are from these teams. However, teams like BSU, TOL, MICH, and both sides of UGA/BAMA are under-owned relative to their ceiling and should be considered for GPPs.
- For those looking to diversify their lineups, players like Blake Corum (RB, MICH), Jamari Thrash (WR, UL), and Jermaine Burton (WR, BAMA) have ownership projected below 15% but still boast high ceilings. Furthermore, leaning into full game stacks may help offset overall ownership of your roster construction.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
CFB Cash Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
QB: Jayden Maiava
RB: Makai Hughes
WR1: Ricky White
WR2: Jabre Barber OR Chris Lewis
Flex: Kimani Vidal
CFB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
QB: Quinn Ewers
RB: Blake Corum
WR1: Jermaine Burton
WR2: Jamari Thrash
Flex: Jawhar Jordan
DFS Stack Considerations
BAMA (University of Alabama)
UGA (University of Georgia)
FSU (Florida State University)
CFB DFS Final Thoughts
The popular roster construction is going to be a high end RB, complemented with a high end WR plus a value WR from TROY with midrange plays filling out the rest. Therefore, keeping this build but rostering lower-owned players can be a way to differentiate your lineup in large tournaments. Additionally, there are several high-total games that are carrying low ownership. Focusing heavily on UGA/BAMA, the BSU side of BSU/UNLV, or jamming in full game stacks could be a profitable strategy. Much of the ownership today is on players from the late afternoon games. Therefore, targeting lower-owned/high upside teams or game environments in the noon set of games or 8pm games could be a strong strategy in GPPs.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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