MMA is a sport based on opportunity and split second decision making. The breakdowns that we try to focus on here will be looking at stylistic differences between fighters and how they will impact the card. Although the breakdowns won't usually be long, they'll have info on fighter strengths and weaknesses and how we expect them to be exploited. Towards the end of the article there will be the five best bets on the slate for you to tail!
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Kyle Daukaus (Striker/Grappler) vs Roman Dolidze (Striker/Wrestler)
Daukaus has been very impressive in the UFC and has been getting better and better. On the other hand, Dolidze has been looking worse and worse. I think this is a pretty slow paced fight that ends in a decision. He is too expensive for my liking in DFS.
Phil Hawes (Wrestler) vs Deron Winn (Wrestler)
Hawes has a huge advantage here on his feet. He has a massive size difference that will cause Deron problems trying to get close and wrestle him. Hawes is the highed ranked fighter on James’ model and I like that.
Cody Stamann (Striker/Wrestler) vs Eddie Wineland (Striker)
This really feels like a easy win for Stamann. He really needs a win and the UFC gave him the perfect opportunity for one. Shouldn’t be close.
Gloria de Paula (Striker) vs Maria Oliveira (Striker)
If de Paula really has improved on the ground, then I could really see her getting a finish. If she hasn’t, then it’ll be a slow one.
Ricardo Ramos (Grappler) vs Danny Chavez (Striker)
This card has a ton of big favorites and this is another one. Ramos has very exciting fights in the UFC and usually ends in finishes. This will be another one here. Ramos by sub.
Jeremiah Wells (Grappler) vs Court McGee (Wrestler)
Finally have our first toss up fight. Wells is going to try to finish this early or he will fade in the second half of the fight. I think it will end in a decision, but a toss up on who will get it. The model leans Wells, so I’ll go with him.
- Jasmine Jasudavicius (Striker) vs Natalia Cristina da Silva (Striker/Grappler)
My first dog of the night. I really like Silva’s striking and all of her finishes have come from submissions. I don’t think Jasmine offers much at all.
Adrian Yanez (Striker) vs Tony Kelley (Striker/Grappler)
I think this fight is much closer than the line suggests. Kelley is going to make this ugly and he may start the fight with a lead. Yanez should pull away late though.
Julian Marquez (Striker) vs Gregory Rodrigues (Grappler)
Give me the best nickname in the UFC. The Cuban Missile Crisis. If Marquez catches him, it won’t be pretty. Rodrigues does not have the greatest chin in the UFC.
Damir Ismagulov (Striker/Grappler) vs Guram Kutateladze (Striker)
This fight is literal definition of a toss up for me. So I go to the model to see what it says. The model like Kutateladze better, so we take the dog!
Joaquin Buckley (Striker) vs Albert Duraev (Grappler)
Buckley could easily know Duraev out, but he has to worry about getting taken down. Duraev should be able to do this and get the victory.
Kevin Holland (Striker) vs Tim Means (Striker)
Kevin is just a much better fighter than Means. He just has to get through the gatekeepers at 170 before they give him the real guys.
Donald Cerrone (Well Rounded) vs Joe Lauzon (Grappler)
This is such a bad matchup for Cowboy. Cowboy is such a slow starter and Joe starts so fast and goes so hard for a first round finish. I just don’t see Cowboy winning this one and it sucks.
Calvin Kattar (Well Rounded) vs Josh Emmett (Striker/Grappler)
This fight fucks so hard. Kattar is the better striker and should be able to piece up Emmett, but Katter is quite reckless sometimes. Go watch the Max fight. Look out for the right hand from Emett or it WILL put you on your ass. I hope we get 5 rounds of this!
All info from https://fightodds.io/ and https://paydirtdfs.com/mma-ranks-and-leverage-model/