MMA is a sport based on opportunity and split second decision making. The breakdowns that we try to focus on here will be looking at stylistic differences between fighters and how they will impact the card. Although the breakdowns won't usually be long, they'll have info on fighter strengths and weaknesses and how we expect them to be exploited. Towards the end of the article there will be the five best bets on the slate for you to tail!
All my information is from https://fightodds.io/ and https://paydirtdfs.com/mma-ranks-and-leverage-model/
Orion Cosce (Striker/Grappler) vs Blood Diamond (Striker)
I would love to pick someone with a name like Blood Diamond, but he is very prone to the takedown and that’s exactly what Orion is going to do here. I think it’ll be an early takedown and early submission win for Orion.
Cosce -210
Nick Negumereanu (Striker) vs Ihor Poteria (Striker)
Nick isn’t very good, but he can take a punch and that may frustrate Ihor. Look for this one to go to the judges and most likely be a split decision for one of these men.
Ji Yeon Kim (Striker) vs Joselyne Edwards (Striker)
Bleh. Low level women’s fight. It could go either way and I have no idea which way it will go. I’d give the lean to Edwards being the larger fighter.
Michael Morales (Striker) vs Adam Fugitt (Striker/Grappler)
Fugitt is fun to watch, but he won’t be fun to watch when he is being stomped on the whole fight. Morales wins this one easy.
Drakkar Klose (Striker/Wrestler) vs Rafa Garcia (Striker)
This is a really big step up in competition for Rafa. Drakkar is pretty damn good wherever this goes. I think he handles Rafa pretty easily.
Klose -225
Dontale Mayes (Striker) vs Hamdy Abdelwahab (Striker/Grappler)
Our favorite thing at Paydirt. Two bad heavyweights fighting each other! The problem here is one of these heavyweights is a lot worse than the other. Hamdy is stepping up a huge step in competition here and I don’t think he’ll be able to handle it.
Mayes -200
Drew Dober (Striker) vs Rafael Alves (Striker/Grappler)
Battle of two dudes who are absolutely shredded. Drew is going to press Alves hard the entire fight and wear Alves out. The only real way I could see Alves win is if he gets a fluke KO.
Dober -175
Alex Morono (Striker/Grappler) vs Matthew Semelsberger (Striker)
I think Morono needs to wrestle a little bit in this one if he wants to win. The problem is that I don’t think he will because he falls in love with his striking. It’ll be interesting to see if Morono can handle the striking of Matthew.
Magomed Ankalaev (Well Rounded) vs Anthony Smith (Striker)
Feel bad for Anthony here. He is such a good guy, but always gets the absolutely hardest dudes to fight. Magomed has plenty of power in his striking, but I see him going to his wrestling to wear Anthony out.
Alexandre Pantoja (Striker/Grappler) vs Alex Perez (Striker/Wrestler)
Pantoja is such a dangerous fighter in this division. Pantoja is going to put Perez in bad spots if he wants to try to go there with him. Perez is also dangerous and has some really good qualities to him, but I think Pantoja takes this one.
Pantoja -190
Derrick Lewis (Striker) vs Sergey Pavlovich (Striker)
I always think this will be the start of the downfall of Derrick, but he always wins these fights. The fights he loses are vs the contenders/champions. Derrick wins this one and another one and gets back to a title fight.
Lewis +125
Brandon Moreno (Striker/Grappler) vs Kai Kara-France (Striker)
What a fun rematch we have here! These two fought a few years ago and Moreno dominated the last 2 rounds to get the victory. I think we see something very similar in this fight. I think Kai works him quite a bit on the feet and Moreno goes to some wrestling to win some rounds.
Moreno -210
Julianna Pena (Striker/Wrestler) vs Amanda Nunes (Striker/Grappler)
I want to start by saying I could totally see what happened in the first fight again here. If Nunes tries to fight here standing again, we could see some major issues for her, just like the last fight. With that being said, I think Nunes makes an adjustment and shows why she is the GOAT. Nunes wins this one early.