My Top 5 Fights For DFS:
- Dvalishvili vs. Moraes
- Blaydes vs. Rozenstruik
- Volkanovski vs. Ortega
- Daukaus vs. Abdurakhimov
- Turner vs. Medic
*The last 3 fights are all 5 round fights!*
Omar Morales (Striker) vs. Jonathan Pearce (Striker/Wrestler)
Pearce has a nice size and length advantage in this one that he needs to use if he wants to win this. I’m worried about him trying to get in too close here and Morales will use his wrestling skills to dominate Pearce.
Projected Ownership:
Morales: 9%
Pearce: 20%
DFS Thoughts: I really like the ownership number on Morales. Especially on Draftkings. If Morales can get inside on Pearce and wrestle him, we may be looking at a big night for Omar Morales.
Matthew Semelsberger (Striker) vs. Martin Sano (Striker)
How is Sano in the UFC? He isn’t good and is coming off 2 losses. Oh, he is friends with the Diaz brothers? That’s why. Semelsberger wins this one quickly.
Projected Ownership:
Semelsberger: 37%
Sano: 4%
DFS Thoughts: This is all up to you. Eat the chalk or don’t play this one and hope it’s low scoring.
Nick Maximov (Grappler) vs. Cody Brundage (Wrestler)
Both of these guys aren’t the greatest fighters and I can see this one going either way. I don’t have a strong stance on it at all. I would give the wrestling edge to Maximov if I had to go on one side of this fight.
Projected Ownership:
Maximov: 32%
Brundage: 14%
DFS Thoughts: This will be the same situation as last week with a lower priced guy and a favorite. I will be fading Maximov because this is the obvious value play for this week. I will not fall into the trap.
Jalin Turner (Striker) vs. Uros Medis (Striker/Grappler)
This fight is going to be bananas. The first round of this fight is going to decide this one. Medic is going to put it all out there in the first and look for the finish. Turner needs to survive the first and I think he will have a good shot at this one to win it.
Projected Ownership:
Turner: 24%
Medic: 28%
DFS Thoughts: I really like Medic in the fight and I think he can score a ton of points on DK today.
Taila Santos (Striker)vs. Roxanne Modafferi (Grappler)
2 things for me in this fight. Never pick a large female favorite and never pick against Roxanne. She has burned me too many times. Taila SHOULD win this one, but don’t be surprised if we get another big upset here.
Projected Ownership:
Santos: 11%
Modafferi: 4%
DFS Thoughts: I think Santos could be a good play if her ownership is actually that low. Will she hit her value being that expensive? Probably not, but there is a chance!!!
Chris Daukaus (Striker) vs. Shamil Abdurakhimov (Striker)
This is one of those fights that they give Daukaus to get his foot through the door. He is supposed to win this one. I think he will, but Daukaus isn’t world class or anything. Don’t be surprised if this goes south for him.
Projected Ownership:
Daukaus: 36%
Abdurakhimov: 8%
DFS Thoughts: WOW. I wasn’t expecting ownership to be that sideways. I really like Daukaus to win this fight, but these numbers will make me have a few shares of Shamil.
Dan Hooker (Striker) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (Striker)
This fight is awesome. There is a killer story behind this fight. I don’t have time to type it all out, but go look it up and see how killer these guys are still fighting in this fight. This line shouldn’t be as close as it is. Dan has had one slip up and has looked stellar other than that. Nasrat is a solid prospect, but this is a LARGE step up for him.
Projected Ownership:
Hooker: 18%
Haqparast: 20%
DFS Thoughts: Love Hooker in this one. I think he easily can finish in this one and score big for your lineup.
Merab Dvalishvili (Striker/Wrestler) vs. Marlon Moraes (Striker)
I love Merab Dvalishvili. I absolutely love him. This man is a WORKHORSE. There is a reason this is my favorite fight on the card for DFS. Merab may have 15 takedowns and score 130+ points in a decision.
Projected Ownership:
Dvalishvili: 36%
Moraes: 17%
DFS Thoughts: You know my thoughts here. Merab gets 10 takedowns and takes the decision victory. He is going to score a lot here.
Jessica Andrade (Striker/Grappler) vs. Cynthia Cavillo (Grappler)
Andrade should be able to control this fight pretty easily. We will get to see how much better Valentina is after Andrade beats Cavillo easily here.
Projected Ownership:
Andrade: 21%
Cavillo: 13%
DFS Thoughts: Won’t have much stake in this fight, but I will have a few Andrade lineups. I think she will control this wherever it goes.
Curtis Blaydes (Striker/Wrestler) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (Striker)
We know what Bladyes needs to do here if he wants to win. Stay away from striking with Rozenstruik. He needs to get this down as quick as he can and wear Rozenstruik out. Rozenstruik needs to do exactly what Lewis did to Blaydes.
Projected Ownership:
Blaydes: 31%
Rozenstruik: 26%
DFS Thoughts: I'm very torn on this fight. Blaydes has a clear path on what he needs to do, but he should have had that same plan vs. Lewis and wanted to strike with Derrick. If he does that vs. Rozenstruik, then he may have a problem.
Robbie Lawler (Striker) vs. Nick Diaz (Striker/Grappler)
I mean, this is a pretty easy pick right? Lawler is a solid fighter who has fought much more recently compared to Diaz. This is Diaz's first fight in 10 years and has been partying and drinking ever since. Please prove me wrong here Nick.
Projected Ownership:
Lawler: 30%
Diaz: 29%
DFS Thoughts: I think many more people are going to be on Diaz because of the name. I will be on Lawler in a few of my lineups. I will actually be fading this fight mostly.
Valenita Shevchenko (Striker) vs. Lauren Murphy (Striker)
There isn’t much to say here. Valentina is a beast. I am happy Lauren is getting a title shot, but she doesn’t belong in the same octagon with Valentina.
Projected Ownership:
Shevchenko: 46%
Murphy: 8%
DFS Thoughts: I assumed Valentina would be higher owned. I think it would be smart to fade this, but Valentina is nonstop action and will most likely get a TKO.
Alexander Volkanovski (Well Rounded) vs. Brian Ortega (Well Rounded)
I’m super happy we are getting this fight. Time to see Volk take on someone other than Max again. It’ll be interesting to see how Volk solves the new puzzle of Ortega. I think Volk is the much better fighter in this fight. I am interested to see what Ortega does. I think he needs to try to grapple and wrestle a bit. I think it would be interesting to see if he can get some crazy submission.
Projected Ownership:
Volkanovski: 41%
Ortega: 36%
DFS Thoughts: I’ll have shares of both of these guys. More of Volk though. I think he is the better fighter and should be able to handle Ortega pretty easily.
BETS:
Volkanovski -185
Lawler -155
Andrade -240
Dvalishvili -265
Hooker -150
Medic -120