Scoring Percentages and Stacking
SEA
- SEA, with an average score of 6.88 and 36.20% of games with 8+ runs, leads the dataset in terms of run-scoring prowess.
- DK Team Own% is 15.23 and DK LevX is 25.00%, suggesting a fair amount of interest in SEA from DraftKings participants.
- FD Team Own% stands at 9.21, with an FD LevX of 25.00% indicating strong interest on FanDuel as well.
- They are up against Bryce Elder as their Opp SP.
STL
- STL holds the second spot, with an average score of 6.50 and 35.80% of games with 8+ runs.
- With a DK Team Own% of 17.68 and a DK LevX of 23.00%, there is significant DraftKings interest.
- On FanDuel, their team ownership percentage is 19.78, and their LevX is 23.00%.
- STL will be facing Tony Gonsolin as their Opp SP.
NYM
- NYM is third, with an average score of 6.58 and 35.60% of games with 8+ runs.
- DK Team Own% for NYM is 36.6 and their DK LevX is 12.00%, which is relatively lower.
- FD Team Own% and FD LevX are 31.81% and 16.50% respectively, showing moderate FanDuel interest.
- They are matched against Cal Quantrill as their Opp SP.
LAD
- LAD has an average score of 6.57 and 35.40% of games with 8+ runs, landing them in the fourth spot.
- Their DK Team Own% is 61.59 and the DK LevX is -1.00%, a rare negative score.
- On FanDuel, their Team Own% is high at 50.03, but they also have a low LevX of 3.50%.
- Steven Matz will be their opposing starting pitcher.
KC
- KC comes in fifth, with an average score of 6.36 and 32.80% of games with 8+ runs.
- DK Team Own% is 68.55 and DK LevX is a disappointing -5.50%.
- FD Team Own% stands at 64.92, but the FD LevX is even more disappointing at -7.50%.
- KC is going up against Michael Kopech as their Opp SP.
These five teams — SEA, STL, NYM, LAD, and KC — are compelling picks for DFS stacks due to their high scoring averages and significant percentages of games with 8+ runs. These factors provide a solid baseline for expecting substantial DFS scores, with the frequency of high-scoring games leading to higher potential returns. Their respective Own% figures on DraftKings and FanDuel highlight their popularity amongst participants, which can be used to predict future trends. However, the negative LevX scores for LAD and KC need attention. These suggest a higher percentage of ownership relative to their probability of success — hence, while they have high potential, they also carry more risk than the numbers might suggest at first glance.
DK Pitcher Options
James Paxton
- Team: BOS
- Salary: 8300
- Top_finish percentage: 21.20%
- Top_5_finish percentage: 63.40%
- Large Field Own%: 4.05%
- Difference to the average Large Field Own%: -10.75%
- Small Field Own%: 4.05%
- Difference to the average Small Field Own%: -10.75%
Joe Ryan
- Team: MIN
- Salary: 10300
- Top_finish percentage: 21.10%
- Top_5_finish percentage: 60.80%
- Large Field Own%: 26.17%
- Difference to the average Large Field Own%: +11.37%
- Small Field Own%: 44.00%
- Difference to the average Small Field Own%: +29.20%
Sandy Alcantara
- Team: MIA
- Salary: 9800
- Top_finish percentage: 19.70%
- Top_5_finish percentage: 58.80%
- Large Field Own%: 31.59%
- Difference to the average Large Field Own%: +16.79%
- Small Field Own%: 54.85%
- Difference to the average Small Field Own%: +40.05%
Reid Detmers
- Team: LAA
- Salary: 7900
- Top_finish percentage: 17.90%
- Top_5_finish percentage: 57.30%
- Large Field Own%: 8.74%
- Difference to the average Large Field Own%: -6.06%
- Small Field Own%: 9.14%
- Difference to the average Small Field Own%: -5.66%
Bryce Miller
- Team: SEA
- Salary: 9400
- Top_finish percentage: 11.40%
- Top_5_finish percentage: 51.70%
- Large Field Own%: 5.37%
- Difference to the average Large Field Own%: -9.43%
- Small Field Own%: 5.37%
- Difference to the average Small Field Own%: -9.43%
Each of these players stands out for their high median scores, indicative of consistently strong performances. They each have significant top finish and top 5 finish percentages, suggesting they often outperform their peers.
James Paxton and Bryce Miller have lower than average ownership percentages, which may imply that they are under-valued assets in large and small fields alike. This, in turn, could mean greater potential return on investment when they perform well.
Joe Ryan and Sandy Alcantara have higher ownership percentages in both large and small fields, suggesting they are well-recognized for their skill and performance. They may be a safer bet for consistent performance.
Reid Detmers, meanwhile, offers an interesting balance with top finish and top 5 finish percentages on par with the others but with lower ownership percentages. This makes him a potential dark horse to consider for greater return on investment.
The only notable outlier in these top performers is Bryce Miller, whose top finish percentage is significantly lower than the other four. However, his top 5 finish percentage remains high, indicating that while he may not often be the best, he is consistently among the best.
FD Pitcher Options
Joe Ryan
- Team: Minnesota Twins
- Salary: 11000
- Top Finish: 27.3%
- Top 5 Finish: 76.1%
- Large Field Own%: 4.79% which is 2.72% lower than the average Large Field Own% of the dataset
- Small Field Own%: 5.42% which is 3.43% higher than the average Small Field Own% of the dataset
Reid Detmers
- Team: Los Angeles Angels
- Salary: 8100
- Top Finish: 23.5%
- Top 5 Finish: 72.7%
- Large Field Own%: 2.39% which is 5.12% lower than the average Large Field Own% of the dataset
- Small Field Own%: 2.39% which is -0.6% lower than the average Small Field Own% of the dataset
Bryce Miller
- Team: Seattle Mariners
- Salary: 9900
- Top Finish: 12.8%
- Top 5 Finish: 62.3%
- Large Field Own%: 2.39% which is 5.12% lower than the average Large Field Own% of the dataset
- Small Field Own%: 2.39% which is -0.6% lower than the average Small Field Own% of the dataset
Sandy Alcantara
- Team: Miami Marlins
- Salary: 10400
- Top Finish: 13.8%
- Top 5 Finish: 60.4%
- Large Field Own%: 14.85% which is 7.34% higher than the average Large Field Own% of the dataset
- Small Field Own%: 25.53% which is 24.54% higher than the average Small Field Own% of the dataset
Jake Irvin
- Team: Washington Nationals
- Salary: 8200
- Top Finish: 11.5%
- Top 5 Finish: 59.6%
- Large Field Own%: 0.69% which is 6.82% lower than the average Large Field Own% of the dataset
- Small Field Own%: 0.69% which is 2.3% lower than the average Small Field Own% of the dataset
The top 5 players with the highest Median scores, which indicate their median tournament expectations, are good bets to perform well. Notably, Joe Ryan, Reid Detmers, and Bryce Miller, who consistently finish in the top and top 5 categories, are great picks. Their top finish percentages are significantly high, and their top 5 finish percentages exceed 60%.
However, Jake Irvin has a significantly low Large and Small Field Own%, far below the dataset average, suggesting he may be an underappreciated player. This could present an opportunity for savvy bettors to capitalize on his performance while other players overlook him.
Sandy Alcantara stands out as he has a high Large Field Own% and Small Field Own%, indicating that he is a popular choice among players. This could be due to his relatively high top finish and top 5 finish percentages, which indicate a high probability of performing well in the tournament.
Overall, these five players' high median scores and finish percentages make them strong choices for high-performing players in tournaments. However, their ownership percentages should be taken into account when considering risk and reward.
True AVG breakdown
The top 5 players with the lowest (Best) Weighted True AVG scores are:
Reid Detmers (LAA)
- Significant difference exists between True AVG (LHH) and True AVG (RHH). The True AVG (LHH) is 0.259, while the True AVG (RHH) is considerably lower at 0.185. This suggests Detmers performs better against right-handed hitters.
- His Weighted True AVG score is 0.193, which is below the overall average of this dataset, indicating better performance.
- He will face 1 Opp LHH and 8 Opp RHH in the upcoming game.
James Paxton (BOS)
- Paxton also shows a difference between his True AVG (LHH) and True AVG (RHH). His True AVG (LHH) is 0.263 while his True AVG (RHH) is significantly lower at 0.176, showcasing better performance against right-handed hitters.
- His Weighted True AVG score is 0.205, which is below the overall average, suggesting superior performance.
- He is set to face 3 Opp LHH and 6 Opp RHH.
Jake Irvin (WAS)
- Irvin's True AVG (LHH) is 0.251, while his True AVG (RHH) is 0.183, signifying a marked difference and implying a better matchup with right-handed hitters.
- His Weighted True AVG score is 0.213, again below the overall average, indicating better performance.
- He will confront 4 Opp LHH and 5 Opp RHH.
Joe Ryan (MIN)
- Ryan has a slight difference between his True AVG (LHH) and True AVG (RHH). His True AVG (LHH) is 0.243 and his True AVG (RHH) is 0.206, showing a bit more strength against right-handed hitters.
- His Weighted True AVG score of 0.214 is under the overall average, denoting above-average performance.
- Ryan will be facing 2 Opp LHH and 7 Opp RHH.
Bryce Miller (SEA)
- Miller's True AVG (LHH) is 0.219 while his True AVG (RHH) is slightly higher at 0.220, showing no significant difference and suggesting comparable performance against left-handed and right-handed hitters.
- His Weighted True AVG score is 0.219, which is below the overall average, indicating better performance.
- He is set to face an equal number of Opp LHH and Opp RHH, with 4 of each.
The Weighted True AVG scores for these players suggest that they perform better than average. In particular, the significant differences between their True AVG (LHH) and True AVG (RHH) highlight their strengths against right-handed hitters, with the exception of Bryce Miller, who demonstrates comparable performance against both types of hitters. The number of Opp LHH and Opp RHH these players will be facing further underline their favourable matchups. This means they are solid picks for the upcoming games, as these statistics suggest they are more likely to maintain a lower batting average allowed.