Each and every day there will be ample opportunity to jump into the betting world and get some action down, and that's especially true for MLB. With so many games happening and a multitude of different bets to make you will always find something to take. This set of posts will be early (or late) thoughts on the best betting spots for the day. Typically, they'll be focused on strikeouts props and Over/Under opportunities. Note that the lines you see mentioned here will likely not last all day. With that being said, hit them as soon as you can!
Initial betting opportunities
The most enticing bets to make currently are:
- u4.5 strikeouts for Mitch White
- o3.5 strikeouts for Taijuan Walker
- o3.5 strikeouts for Chris Flexen
- u6.5 strikeouts for Carlos Rodon
- o8.5 total runs in BOS/LAA*
* Line not currently available
u4.5 strikeouts for Mitch White (currently -145): BET
Mitch White is going to be facing the White Sox today after coming off his best start of the season against the Pirates. The White Sox are significantly better than the Pirates and strikeout considerably less. In fact, in the recent sample, they strikeout just 18% of the time. White has had three or less strikeouts in every start so far expect the one against the Pirates where he had seven. Considering the matchup and White's baseline expectation, you should hammer the under on 4.5. This bet is probably good up to u3.5 at +115.
o3.5 strikeouts for Taijuan Walker (currently +110): Iffy
Though this one is no where as strong as the Mitch White bet, it's still worth thinking about. Taijuan Walker has gone over four strikeouts in just three of his starts, which isn't a very good baseline. The crux here is a matchup with the Padres, who have above average strikeout rates at 24% and are the second worst team in the league against RHP. This line is currently juiced to -150 on the under, and if it drops to 2.5 it's an auto bet on the over. Currently. I can take it or leave it. If I bet it I will wait until after we get batting orders confirmed.
o3.5 strikeouts for Chris Flexen (currently +110): Strong bet
Although he's facing the Astros, the over for Chris Flexen looks strong here. He has had three or more strikeouts in all but two of his starts and five or more in three of his last five games. His True AVG sits at .263 which is nearly 50 points better than he actual, so he has regression coming in his favor. Yes, the Astros are a super hot team right now against RHP, but the mark of 3.5 is very attainable and should be hit at a + number. similarly to Walker, there's a chance this moves down a tad and it's a slam bet at 2.5. I'm going to sit back on this one as well for now.
Other Bets being considered:
- o8.5 runs for BOS/LAA: Line isn't available yet, but models have the game at 11.5 runs scored and think Reid Detmers is in for a world of hurt
- u6.5 strikeouts for Carlos Rodon: There's something off with him in the recent sample, but True AVG loves him today and it's holding me back from betting this under
Game Betting and Strikeout models are live!
Want to see what teams and pitchers all those bets belong to?