Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers.
Model Results
MLB True AVG notable results
The pitcher with the highest True AVG and largest negative distributions is Triston McKenzie. His actual average allowed is .151, but his True AVG is a painful .313. that deviation comes out to -.163 which is more than double his actuals. You may not consider the Orioles a threat, but they are league average against RHP in the recent sample. Even if you don't care to use the Orioles, you should avoid McKenzie at all costs in DFS and heavily consider his unders.
Meanwhile, the pitcher with the lowest True AVG is Spencer Strider! Strider has been electric with a 13.81 K/9 even if he has been lucky in HR/FB and LOB rates. His True AVG of .127 is backed up by an xFIP of 2.68 and even Coors shouldn't scare you away from him. Especially considering Colorado has been among the worst in the league against RHP, Strider looks like a terrific option in all formats.
Significant deviations to consider
- The largest positive deviations belong to Dylan Cease. The Rays are a considerably better team against LHP and are slightly below average against RHP. Cease has a phenomenal strikeout rate and should be a priority for DFS and strikeout props alike.
- Lastly, the other main target today is going to be Paul Blackburn. He's facing an extremely strong Red Sox group who are top five in wRC+ against RHP. Blackburn has a True AVG of .278, .084 worse than his actual, and should be expected to regress.