Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
MLB What is True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers.
Model Results
Highlight from yesterday's post: Jonathan Heasley had the highest True AVG on the slate at .297. He faced the Astros and gave up seven hits, three runs, and one home run with five strikeouts. Even though they didn't crush Heasley, Astros scored seven runs total.
MLB True AVG notable results
The highest True AVG on the slate belongs to Michael Wacha. With a True AVG of .289, he also has a relatively large deviation from his actual of .241. His opponent, the Angels, are about league average against RHP. Now, Wacha had servicable upside in years past, but has fallen off a cliff in terms of strikeouts and has a low floor. While the Angels are not a lock here, it's smart to avoid Wacha and his unders are enticing.
The lowest True AVG today goes to Cristian Javier. There's about a 10% deviation in his .194 True AVG from his .217 actual, so not a lot of correction to be had. Regarding the matchup, he's facing a Mariners squad that has been above average against RHP and only striking out 22% of the time. Basically, True AVG won't be the reason you use Javier, but he's still someone you want to prioritize.
Significant deviations to consider
- While there aren't any big positive deviations to leverage, the largest today goes to Carlos Carrasco. You can see that his True AVG is .071 lower than his actual and he has the best matchup on the slate. The Padres have been the second worst team in the league against RHP in the recent sample with a wRC+ of 75.
- Meanwhile the largest negative deviations are for Blake Snell. He's currently got a batting average allowed of .157 but his True AVG is way up at .267. The Mets are a solid team against LHP and don't strike out much at all. You want to seriously consider the unders for Snell today as well as utilizing the Mets for leverage in DFS.