Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers.
Model Results (Updated 12:03pm EST)
Recap from yesterday's post: It was a rare off day for the model, with Michael Kopech crushing the Dodgers even in a large negative deviation. Reid Detmers was scratched as well as Pilkington.
MLB True AVG Notable results (Updated 12:03pm EST)
Since he was scratched from his start, we will have Reid Detmers as the worst True AVG again. Instead of rewriting that matchup, we will look at Josiah Gray with the second highest mark. His True AVG of .311 is .082 higher than his actual which is a significant deviation. He's facing a Marlins group that is third in wRC+ against RHP in the recent sample, so this is a spot for us to leverage. You will want to avoid Gray in all formats and use the Marlins in DFS as well as betting the over on their runs total.
As Detmers was scratched with the highest True AVG, Pilkington was scratched with the lowest! Instead we will look at Alex Wood against the Rockies. the last update on Alex Wood came in the report from 6.2.2022, where he faced the Marlins. He ended up with two runs against and five strikeouts in an above average matchup. Today he has a league average matchup with a team that he has faced twice so far this season. We can still expect an above average game from Wood here, but nothing exceptional appears to be coming.
Update: Instead of Konnor Pilkington, we have Shane Bieber starting against the Rangers. Bieber has a terrific True AVG (best of the day) at .203 and gets to face a team with a top 10 strikeout rate against RHP. He's an obvious priority in both DFS and the betting markets.
Significant deviations to consider
- The largest positive deviation is actually for Antonio Senzatela. With an actual average of .396 it's near impossible for it not to turn around, so a big correction should be coming. This isn't necessarily a recommendation to use Senzatela, but more so to avoid the Giants.
- The main negative deviation we need to be careful of is Tony Gonsolin. He's facing the White Sox, who are in a bad spot with an 87 wRC+ in the recent sample. However, they aren't striking out a significant amount and ran bad last night not to score a lot of runs. All unders for Gonsolin are in play and the White Sox are a good spot of leverage in DFS.