Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers.
Model Results
Recap from yesterday's post: Antonio Senzatela was the pitcher with the highest positive deviations (+.146!) and had a great game. He faced the Giants and went six innings with just one run, six hits, and six strikeouts.
MLB True AVG notable results
Looking at the model results today we have James Kaprielian as the highest True AVG. His mark of .313 is 30 points higher than the second worst on the slate and his matchup is tough. Though the Guardians have just a 91 wRC+ in the recent sample, they continue to be pesky with a low strikeout rate and good RISP numbers. Kaprielian had a great start to his MLB career but has been lackluster in 2022, so until that upside shows up we can continue to fade and attack him. In this spot specifically we are looking at his unders in betting markets and secondary Guardians stacks in DFS.
Is today the day we actually get another Konnor Pilkington start? True AVG sure hopes so. He's got the lowest mark on the slate by nearly 60 points, has a strikeout rate above 29%, and faces one of the worst teams in the league. In his last start against the Royals he gave up five hits, which was still a tad unlucky, and still had eight strikeouts! Kid is electric. The Athletics are better against LHP, but are still below average in wRC+ and walk rates. We should look to prioritize Pilkington in all formats.
Significant deviations to consider
- The largest positive deviation goes to Pilkington, so that's just another reason to like him. After him the other notable positive deviation is Jordan Lyles, who is at +.070. He's facing the Royals who are playing slightly above average, but considering the low price on Lyles in betting and DFS, he's likely worth some attention.
- Though there aren't many large positive deviations, there's a massive one for Nick Pivetta. He's been “Lights out” but has had an easy schedule and has gotten lucky on top of that, so he's got a correction coming. He faces the Angels tonight who may be without Mike Trout, but that will just keep their ownership low. Look to attack Pivetta for leverage in DFS.