Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers.
Model Results
Recap from yesterday's post: The overall worst pitcher and second highest True AVG was Bruce Zimmermann and it was suggested to attack him. Subsequently, he gave up 10 hits, 7 runs, and two home runs to the Royals.
MLB True AVG notable results
First off, the largest True AVG goes to Matt Swarmer. He's up against the Yankees who have a 133 wRC+ and league leading .204 ISO in the recent sample. To be fair, Swarmer hasn't looked terrible in his starts, but it's worth noting he's been very lucky and had good matchups. The start today is a test for him, and it leans in favor of the Yankees. This is a spot to use the them for low owned upside in DFS contests.
Next, the lowest True AVG belongs to Zack Wheeler. Wheeler's mark of .175 is .063 below his actuals, giving him not only a great baseline but good regression. Arizona was able to get to Kyle Gibson yesterday, but Gibson is a notably worse pitcher. Wheeler is a high strikeout pitcher up against a top 10 strikeout team so we have a lot of upside. That said, you should prioritize Wheeler in DFS and hit his overs to get maximum exposure.
Significant deviations to consider
- The largest positive deviation is held by Lucas Giolito. He has maintained a terrific strikeout rate of 25%+ even considering his bad luck. He's facing a Rangers squad who is top five in strikeout rate against RHP. Giolito is a top option in all formats today.
- Meanwhile, the largest negative deviation is for Sam Long. His current batting average allowed is just .063, which screams regression even without True AVG. Moreover, he faces the Dodgers who have a 133 wRC+ against LHP in the recent sample. Considering a low strikeout rate and high walk rate, along with an xFIP of 4.05 and ERA of 2.35, this is an obvious correction spot. Prioritize the Dodgers stacks in DFS and take their overs in the betting markets.