Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Model Results
Recap from yesterday's post: The largest negative deviation went to Edward Cabrera. He faced the Astros and gave up seven hits, one home run, five runs and had just two strikeouts.
MLB True AVG notable results
First, the largest True AVG is for Mike Minor, who faces the Diamondbacks. Minor has a True average of .373 which is just absolutely egregious considering this is a regressed stat. Granted, he's been really unlucky in terms of home run rates, but very lucky in areas around balls in play. This means that we would expect him to continue to be bad, but in ways that he hasn't been bad so far. All of that said, his opponent in the lowly Diamondbacks with just an 79 wRC+ to LHP. In short, Minor's price is enticing in DFS but his ceiling is expected to be very low.
Next we have Cristian Javier, who faces the Rangers, as the pitcher with the lowest True AVG. As you can see, Javier has the lowest True AVG and the second highest positive deviation today. He's in a great position in both DFS and as a target in the prop markets considering his profile and matchup. He's got a 30% strikeout rate and gets the Rangers, who have a top five strikeout rate against RHP. He recently racked up nine strikeouts against them on May 20th and that is well in play here again. Prioritize him in all formats.
Significant deviations to consider
- The largest positive deviation goes to Kyle Bradish. He's got to cash in on this bankload of regression soon, right? He certainly isn't as bad as advertised and has been exceptionally unlucky in a lot of ways. He's had unsustainable home run rates and BABIP rates in nearly every game so far this year. He's facing the Blue Jays, so it definitely has a lot of downside, but Bradish is a phenomenal leverage play in DFS.
- Meanwhile, it's Mike Minor with the largest negative deviation, but we already talked about him. Instead we can focus on Sandy Alcantara. To clarify, Alcantara is very good, and has a 2.91 xFIP and terrific peripheral stats. However, he has been overperforming in all the “luck” categories. With a matchup against the Phillies, this is a spot where he could fall back and witness the coming regression in a big way. Use the Phillies as a leverage point and take the unders on Alcantara.