Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Model Results
Recap from yesterday's post: The largest negative deviation was held by Sandy Alcantara. the decision was to take his unders based on a tough matchup and regression looming. He gave up six hits, two earned runs, and had just five strikeouts.
MLB True AVG notable results
Starting things off we have Kyle Hendricks with the highest True AVG on the slate. His matchup today is with the Padres who are a bottom five team against RHP. There's not a lot of regression in turn here, it's just that Hendricks is a legitimately bad pitcher at this point in his career. That said, this matchup is a cakewalk and it wouldn't be a big surprise if he had a good game. There are a few hitters on the Padres worth using to leverage Hendricks, but otherwise avoid this spot.
On the other hand we have Shane Bieber leading the way with the lowest True AVG. His mark of .196 is fantastic and a matchup with the soft hitting Rockies is nice. Though this is a game in Coors field, the Rockies have really fallen apart lately with a 78 wRC+ and pitiful .101 ISO. You should feel no worries prioritizing Shane Bieber in all formats and taking advantage of people scared by the park.
Significant deviations to consider
- The largest positive deviation belongs to Bryse Wilson. Wilson hasn't been good lately, and it's a hard matchup with the Cardinals. That said, a lot of the runs against him haven't been entirely his fault. his current batting average allowed is .412 in the recent sample, and his True AVG is .279 which is .133 points better. While Wilson likely won't be good, it's fair to say he will not continue to be atrocious.
- Finally it's our good friend Tony Gonsolin with the highest negative deviations. The last time Gonsolin was a target he faced the White Sox and ran hot again, so we are going back to the regression well. Moving forward, he's facing the Angels today who are a middle of the road squad against RHP. However, they have the highest strikeout rate in the league, which doesn't inspire confidence. In short, Gonsolin is still a target with the Angels being a strong leverage play, especially Mike Trout.