Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Model Results
Recap from yesterday's post: The best True AVG from yesterday went to Shane Bieber. Though he got very unlucky in terms of BABIP, he still had a solid performance. He gave up nine hits and a home run while striking out seven.
MLB True AVG notable results
Starting things off we have Bruce Zimmermann the highest True AVG on the slate. We have talked about Zimmermann plenty of times now, and he continues to be a target. He faces the Blue Jays today who have a 185 wRC+ and 1.009 OPS against LHP in the recent sample. If they don't score 10 runs it'll be a miracle.
On the other hand we have Spencer Strider the way with the lowest True AVG. There's a lot of volatility on Strider's game with a high walk rate and erratic approach, but his upside is undeniable. He faces a Nationals team that has a below average wRC+ but hasn't been a heavy strikeout lineup either. His price is too low in DFS where he should be prioritized, but the prop betting markets will likely not offer much value.
Significant deviations to consider
- The largest positive deviation belongs to Austin Gomber. Yet another Colorado Rockies pitcher that is deemed to have been exceptionally unlucky. His actual average allowed of .341 is significantly higher than the .256 True AVG he's claimed in the recent sample. As noted yesterday, Coors has not been as scary as years past, so look to Gomber having a better game than his recent production.
- It's technically Jonathan Heasley with the largest negative deviation. However, he's joined by a couple arms worth noting. Marco Gonzales, Luis Garcia, and Reid Detmers all sit in the same range with around a -.075 deviation. The toughest matchup – and worst True AVG overall of the group – is for Detmers facing the Dodgers. That being said, all of the group look worse than advertised and mostly bad. You should either avoid or attack all of these guys.