Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
All underlined players have a link to their Fangraphs page for ease of research!
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Model Results
Recap from yesterday's post: The largest negative deviation on the day went to Kutter Crawford and it was suggested to get exposure to the Cardinals. He gave up six hits, four runs, and two home runs. Subsequently the Cards went on to score 11 runs.
MLB True AVG notable results
First off, Mike Minor is the pitcher with the worst True AVG overall. His mark of .320 is not only bad for the slate, but bad in the league overall and far below average. His opponent today will be the Brewers, and while they have a lot of power, they are a below average team. In fact, in the recent sample they have just an 89 wRC+ against LHP to go with a 23% strikeout rate. When we have a bad pitcher against a bad team, it's usually an avoid from both sides. That said, don't count on Minor for any upside in this spot and attack him if you like.
Meanwhile on the other end of the spectrum we find Alex Cobb with a True AVG of .177. He faces the lowly Pirates who have an 80 wRC+ and the second highest strikeout rate in the league against RHP. This would be a slam dunk play, but Cobb is on an unspecified pitch count which clouds things considerably for DFS and prop betting. Be on the lookout for any info here because if the pitch count is 70+ he's as easy a play as you'll find in all formats.
Significant deviations to consider
- Technically the highest positive deviation goes to Austin Voth, but he's opening and may not go long. Instead we will focus on Jared Koenig. He faces the Royals, who have been league average but with an annoyingly low strikeout rate in the recent sample. He's a middle of the road talent with middling strikeout rates and a less than stellar walk rate. Overall there isn't a lot to exploit on either side here, but avoiding the Royals makes sense as a priority.
- Finally we will talk about the largest negative deviation going to Michael Kopech. It should be clarified that Kopech is a quality pitcher, but he has been untouchable lately and that won't continue. Unless his name is Tony Gonsolin that is. Anyway, his xFIP of 3.98 is over a run higher than his ERA in the recent sample and he's got just a 27% groundball rate and .158 BABIP. He's up against the Astros and their 19% strikeout rate so we should expect correction for him in this spot. The Astros are unlikely to be popular, so use them for upside and leverage.