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MLB True AVG Report – 6.22.2022

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Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.

Underlined phrases and words have links for extra information! All underlined players have a link to their Fangraphs page for ease of research!

What is MLB True AVG?

True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.

Model Results

MLB True AVG model results for PayDirt
MLB True AVG model results for 6.21.2022

Recap from yesterday's post: The highest overall True AVG went to Matt Swarmer facing the Pirates. They taged him for five hits, five runs, and a home run. Meanwhile the lowest True AVG went to Dylan Cease against the Blue Jays. He was incredible, with one hit and 11 strikeouts over six innings.

Passage from the MLB True AVG report from 6.21.2022
Passage from the MLB True AVG report from 6.21.2022

MLB True AVG notable results

We have a familiar face with Triston McKenzie holding the worst True AVG today. He's got a matchup with the Twins, who have the third best wRC+ against RHP at 126. This is certainly one of those spots where we want to stack up the Twins and cash in on regression. Over the season, McKenzie has a .197 BABIP and 86% LOB rate. Likewise, his ERA of 2.96 is 1.5 runs below his xFIP. Take the unders on McKenzie and stack up the Twins in DFS.

On the other side of the coin is Mike Clevinger with the best True AVG at .183. With his actual being .300 we have a huge positive deviation as well! He's got a date with the Diamondbacks and their 81 wRC+ against RHP. The recent sample is a mixed bag with just a couple starts, but he got incredibly unlucky to get rocked by the Rockies in Coors. He's got a great shot to shove against ARI as his numbers come back down to earth. Look to prioritize him in all formats as he gets back on track.

Significant deviations to consider

  • With Clevinger holding the largest deviation, we will also check out Daniel Lynch and his mark of +.092. Lynch is going up against the Angels who have been by far the worst team in the league against LHP. Their 61 wRC+ and paltry .109 ISO are easy to exploit. Lynch has had strong strikeout numbers to go with some really unlucky results and has a 6.75 ERA while his xFIP is just 3.76. In conclusion, this is a perfect get right spot for him and his ownership will be very low.
  • Similar to the situation above, it's McKenzie with the largest negative deviation. Instead let's just note a couple arms that are around the -.100 deviation mark. Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, and Tyler Wells are all in that range and should be avoided. Subsequently, if you want to attack one, it's likely best to stack against Wells. Basically, the Orioles have the worst bullpen of the three, so that's the tiebreaker.

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