Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
Underlined phrases and words have links for extra information! All underlined players have a link to their Fangraphs page for ease of research!
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Model Results
Recap from yesterday's post: It was an interesting situation where Sandy Alcantara had the lowest True AVG but was an avoid at ownership. Because of a large negative deviation, he wasn't near as attractive as other low marks have been. He faltered, with six hits, five runs, and two home runs allowed.
MLB True AVG notable results
The bottom of the True AVG table today sits Mike Minor. Both Him and Jared Koenig have marks over .300 which is typically where we enter the danger zone. Minor gets a matchup with the Giants who are considerably weaker against LHP with just an 87 wRC+. Koening on the other hand is facing the Royals who are much stronger in this split at a stat of 116. Neither of these guys have enough upside to mitigate the disastrously low floors they represent. Look to avoid them both and use the Royals in GPPs.
We have one of the best pitcher taking the lowest True AVG: Corbin Burnes. Not only is his recent sample terrific, but his season long True AVG is top 10 as well! He's got a rough matchup on deck against the Blue Jays and their 136 wRC+ against RHP. The hope here is that the matchup keeps his ownership in check and you can shove him for leverage. Regardless of ownership, Burnes represents a massive ceiling and solid floor and should be a priority in all formats.
Significant deviations to consider
- The largest positive deviation belongs to Yusei Kikuchi. Although his full season stats are mostly in line, his recent performances have been hurt badly by things out of his control. Subsequently, his full season ERA is around a 4.9 while his recent sample is at 7.85 while his xFIP has hardly changed. The BABIP and home run rates both have a lot of room for regression and there's a great ceiling behind them. The Brewers are not near as scary against LHP and this is a secretly strong spot for Kikuchi to get back on track.
- Finally we have Josiah Gray with the largest negative deviations facing the Rangers. Gray is the inverse of Kikuchi, with season long stats in line and a lot of luck propping up his recent outcomes. His xFIP hasn't moved much from around 4.5, but he's got a .89 ERA down from 3.95 full season. Likewise, he has unsustainable marks in BABIP, LOB, and HR/FB. The Rangers are league average against RHP and can easily send Josiah to the shadow realm here. Take the unders on Gray's props and stack the Rangers in DFS.