Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
Underlined phrases and words have links for extra information! All underlined players have a link to their Fangraphs page for ease of research!
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Model Results
Recap from yesterday's post: The largest positive deviations yesterday went to Jose Suarez. He had a terrific outcome, going six innings with eight strikeouts and just one run allowed. Subsequently he was terrific in both DFS and betting markets for those that followed!
MLB True AVG notable results
The best MLB True AVG today goes to Kris Bubic and Kevin Gausman tied at .215. We will talk about Gausman later in the deviations, but Bubic is facing the Rangers here. While the Rangers are an average team against RHP, they are well above average against LHP with a wRC+ of 150. Considering that makes them a top five group in this split, it's a tall task for Bubic. That said, he's been fantastic in the recent sample with high strikeout rates and a 3.75 xFIP. If the luck goes his way as expected he has a great ceiling at presumably low ownership. Prioritize him in DFS and hit his overs in the prop market.
Moving along we have Triston McKenzie with the highest True AVG, which should come at no surprise at this point. McKenzie got knocked around in his last start with nine hits, six runs, and three home runs. He's got the exact same matchup today as he faces the Twins once again. This is a straight forward spot, so avoid McKenzie and stack the Twins.
Significant deviations to consider
- As mentioned above, we have Kevin Gausman with the largest positive deviation on the slate. even if you consider the full season you can see that Gausman should have had much better outcomes. His BABIP of .372 and LOB rate of 67.2% are both quite far off the league averages and his ERA is still just 3.19. There's a reason his season long true AVG is the second best in the league. His recent sample is even more unlucky, with a 5.48 ERA and largely unsustainable rates in BABIP and LOB% with strong strikeout numbers. His matchup with the Red Sox is tough, but this is a spot to exploit and gain leverage on the field.
- The antithesis of Gausman is Tyler Wells with the largest negative deviations. His season long numbers have his ERA at 3.34 and his xFIP at 4.81, nearly 1.5 runs worse. The recent sample is even more stark, with a 2.00 ERA and 5.19 xFIP which is propped up by excessively lucky rates of BABIP, LOB rate, and HR/FB rates. His matchup with the Mariners is not easy, as they are top 10 in the league against RHP. Stack them up in DFS and take the unders on Wells in the betting markets.