Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
Underlined phrases and words have links for extra information! All underlined players have a link to their Fangraphs page for ease of research!
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Model Results
Recap from yesterday's post: Patrick Corbin had the highest positive deviations and made full use of his corrections. He faced the Pirates and racked up 12 strikeouts with just five hits and one run allowed.
MLB True AVG notable results
First off, the best True AVG belongs to Jalen Beeks, but there's not much clarity on if he starts. Instead we will look at Kyle Wright against the Phillies. Wright's True AVG sits at .214, a nice positive deviation from his actual allowed of .286. The Phillies have been league average, but that sample includes Bryce Harper who is now on the IL. That said, this is an above average matchup for Wright and he has upside in both DFS and prop markets.
Next up is Eric Lauer with the worst True AVG on the day. After starting the year exceptionally strong, he's fallen apart in the recent sample. Indeed, his season long xFIP of 3.69 has jumped to 4.72 and his strikeout rates and groundball rates have plummeted. His opponent, the Rays, are a top 10 team against LHP with a wRC+ of 127 and below average strikeout rates. In sum, you'll want to take unders on Lauer and stack up the Rays in DFS.
Significant deviations to consider
- We have Madison Bumgarner taking the spot of highest positive deviations today, and that feels gross. Fortunately, he's facing a Padres squad that is below average against LHP and likely worse off since there's no Machado. Bumgarner has fine season long numbers but has been running cold in the recent sample. His BABIP is sitting at .400 with his LOB rate a tad under average as well. Considering all of this you'll want to utilize Bumgarner as a low owned upside play.
- Finishing things up we have the highest negative deviations going to Zack Greinke. At this point in his career, Greinke has nearly no ceiling and only downside to offer. He had by far his best game of the season last outing against the Athletics and now faces a considerably better team in the Rangers. Projections will likely be a fan of Greinke, but rest assured that he is a risky option and the Rangers are an attractive piece of leverage.