Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
Underlined phrases and words have links for extra information! All underlined players have a link to their Fangraphs page for ease of research!
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Model Results
Recap from yesterday's post: The lowest overall True AVG on the slate belonged to Kyle Wright! He faced the Phillies and had a great bounceback game. He allowed just three hits and one run while striking out four over seven innings pitched.
MLB True AVG notable results
Leading the notes off we have the lowest True AVG going to Ian Anderson against the Phillies. You can take a lot of the thoughts from the Kyle Wright blurb yesterday and apply them here! The Phillies have a relatively strong recent sample, but are much weaker without Bryce Harper. Granted, Anderson has a walk rate issue (above 10%) but he's still a solid pitcher with upside. He's ran cold the last five games or so and it's time for him to find his ceiling again. Especially considering his price in DFS he will make for a great value in all formats.
Moving on it is Chris Archer against the Guardians with the worst True AVG at .282. Likewise, he has the highest negative deviations at -.113 signifying a large correction on the way. His season long xFIP of 4.77 is almost two runs higher than his ERA, and his recent sample is an even larger gap with an ERA of 1.57 and an xFIP of 4.38. The Guardians don't have a lot of power, but they will leverage pitchers that can't get outs. This is a spot to take all the unders on Archer and stack up the Guardians in DFS showdown.
Significant deviations to consider
- The largest positive deviation today is non other than Yusei Kikuchi. The last time we looked to leverage him, it didn't go so well, but we are running it back here. He faces the Rays, who are a bit above average against LHP but are considerably worse than some of the teams that Kikuchi has dealt with lately. Considering Yusei has had terrific strikeout numbers and terrible luck in BABIP and home run rates, we don't want to miss out on his correction. Here's to hoping he's low owned today because he's a phenomenal play in DFS.
- The last note we have is on Joe Musgrove who has large negative deviations to be aware of. He's been running good most of the year and that extends to his recent sample with unsustainable numbers in BABIP and LOB rate. His matchup is one of the toughest in the league against the Dodgers. Granted, they are in their first game away from a disappointing road trip to Coors, so they may be a bit muted. Regardless of that, Musgrove is likely to attract ownership and is a terrific fade in all formats. Take his unders and move on.