Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model and True AVG tables. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
Underlined phrases and words have links for extra information! All underlined players have a link to their Fangraphs page for ease of research!
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Model Results
Recap from yesterday's post: Both the highest and lowest True AVG marks did their job yesterday. Granted, Austin Davis only hit two innings against the Rays, but the advice was to avoid them. they got shut out, so we can call that a win. On the other hand, Hudson faced the Braves and gave up nine hits and six runs.
MLB True AVG notable results
First off at the top of the models we find Kyle Hendricks up against the Brewers. The season long sample for Hendricks paints a picture of consistency, but the recent sample has some bad luck. His BABIP is way out of whack, and still his strikeout rates and xFIP have improved greatly. It's fair to say Hendricks started the season badly, but he seems to be turning a corner. Granted, this is a tough matchup with a top ten team against RHP. Regardless, you can take the overs on strikeout props for Hendricks and utilize him for salary relief in DFS.
Next up we we look to the worst True AVG on the slate belonging to Andre Pallante against the Braves. Even before we consider this matchup, things look bad for Pallante. His BABIP is far too low and his strikeout rates don't help mitigate the extra contact at all. Atlanta is a team that sells out for power and home runs and will assuredly look to take advantage of a soft throwing SP. Similar to yesterday, look to prioritize the Braves in DFS and avoid Pallante.
Significant deviations to consider
- Leading off the highest positive deviations for the day is Jameson Taillon against the Pirates. We have been attacking the Pirates without mercy when it comes to deviations and this is no different. Though they have been better lately, the Pirates still have just a 91 wRC+ against RHP. Taillon has been incredible unlucky in the recent sample with a .415 BABIP and 5.68 ERA against a 3.56 xFIP. With a positive deviation of +.101 and a weak opponent, you'll want to prioritize Taillon on fantasy and betting markets alike.
- Finally the largest negative deviations go to non other than Chris Archer facing the White Sox. Archer's season long stats show him benefitting from luck in all of BABIP, LOB rate, and home run rates. Liekwise, his recent sample is equally as bad. To clarify, his ERA is just 1.64 while his xFIP is over 5.00 and his BABIP and LOB rates are both unsustainable. Attacking Archer in this spot with full White Sox stacks and reap the rewards of regression.