Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model and True AVG tables. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
Underlined phrases and words have links for extra information! All underlined players have a link to their Fangraphs page for ease of research!
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Recap from yesterday's post: It was a relatively lame set of results from the models yesterday, with all the spots producing some warts. The best True AVG went to Cristian Javier against the Royals. Granted, he only gave up four hits, but three of them were home runs. Apparently that home run rate regression had something to say about this post!
MLB True AVG notable results
Starting off, we have a familiar face at the top of the models: Dylan Cease. He has maintained at least a top three spot in the season long True AVG ranks and continues his dominance in the recent sample. Granted, the walk rate is a tad high, but the 2.20 xFIP even in regards to a .345 BABIP signals more strong performances to come. His matchup today with the Tigers is an obvious spot to attack, so you won't be getting a discount on ownership. That said, he's worth every penny and all the ownership as a priority play in all formats.
Moving on we have the highest True AVG going to Bryse Wilson. This is one of those interesting situations of a pitcher with a terrible True AVG (over .300) but with strong positive deviations. To clarify, Wilson has been really bad this year but we expect him to be a little better moving forward. With that in consideration, he's got a cakewalk matchup with the Reds and their 77 wRC+ against RHP. This is an avoid on both ends, but feel free to consider Reds power bats as one offs in DFS.
Significant deviations to consider
- The highest positive deviations go to Matthew Liberatore against the Braves. This is a stark difference to the last few days of stacking the Braves, as we will be looking to attack them here. Liberatore's positive deviations top the charts and his True AVG is a shiny .202 which is the second best on the day. The recent sample has his strikeout rates spiking, although he's also been lucky in terms of home run rates. You'll surely get solid leverage from rostering Liberatore in DFS and there's going to be plenty of upside on his strikeout props as well. He's a fantastic option in GPPs.
- To close things out we look to a couple pitchers for negative deviations to leverage. Our good friend Tony Gonsolin returns to back a dumptruck of salt into the wounds from the last few weeks. His matchup with the Cubs is very beatable, but with nasty negative deviations he is once again an avoid. Meanwhile, Joe Musgrove and Marco Gonzalez look like spots to attack. Both have negative deviations of around -.075 and have matchups with strong teams. Look to utilize the Giants and Blue Jays against them and take the unders on their props as well.