Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model and True AVG tables. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
Underlined phrases and words have links for extra information! All underlined players have a link to their Fangraphs page for ease of research!
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Model Results
Housekeeping note! the article will be in video form today because of extenuating circumstances.
Paydirt MLB True AVG Report visual edition:
Main video notes:
- The lowest True AVG on the day belongs to Bailey Falter. His strikeout rates and matchup with the Cubs make him a priority.
- The highest True AVG goes to Erick Fedde. He's a prime candidate to attack and makes the Diamondbacks an attractive stack.
- The highest positive deviations go to Bailey Falter and Brayan Bello. Bello has an incredibly tough matchup but is still a strong leverage play in large field GPPs. Likewise, his overs in the strikeout market are solid bets.
- The highest negative deviations go to Robbie Ray. He's facing the Astros who can certainly punish him and cause some regression. That said, his True AVG is still fine and I wouldn't expect a blow up. Astros power bats are good GPP one offs.