Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model and True AVG tables. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
Underlined phrases and words have links for extra information! All underlined players have a link to their Fangraphs page for ease of research!
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Model Results
Recap from the previous slate's post: There were strong results from the top and bottom True AVGs on the day. Spencer strider finished with just three hits and one earned run allowed along with six strikeouts in six innings pitched. On the other hand, Zerpa mustered just one strikeout against the Angels who went on to score six runs overall.
Below you'll find a recap of the DFS and Betting models. These models are powered by True AVG and other powerful metrics! If you are enjoy the True AVG report, you should try out a subscription to the site for access (Find an option here!).
MLB True AVG notable results
Leading things off is Max Scherzer with the lowest True AVG on the day. It is worth noting that David Peterson may be starting instead of Scherzer, and his True AVG would be .205, so still very good. Scherzer is of course one of the best overall pitchers in the game, and his only weakness has been power LHH. Considering the Yankees main threats are RHH, this matchup is relatively easy. Considering Scherzer's True AVG is a pristine .164 and his strikeout upside is some of the best in the league there is no reason to avoid him in this spot. In sum, Hit the overs in the betting markets and run him out in DFS.
On the other side of the spectrum is Antonio Senzatela with the highest True AVG on the slate. Granted, there were a couple weeks where Senzatela was getting far too unlucky and was set to experience positive regression, but those days are over. His actual average allowed of .355 is still higher than his True AVG of .313 but that True AVG is terrible. Likewise, he has to play at home at Coors against a White Sox squad with a 110 wRC+ against RHP. Everything points to attacking Senzatela in this spot, so stack against him and take the overs for the White Sox in the betting markets.
Significant deviations to consider
- The largest positive deviations go to Nathan Eovaldi up against the Guardians. His recent games have been rough, but there's some context necessary there. First off, he was coming off the IL and possible not completely ready to go. Secondly, he had to face two of the toughest opponents in the league back to back. The result here is a .480 BABIP and 39% LOB rate in the recent sample along with a 15.43 ERA and 3.90 xFIP. In conclusion, he's been incredibly unlucky and we should expect that to turn around. To be fair, the Guardians are a relatively strong opponent, but nothing compared to the Yankees or Blue Jays. You should consider utilizing Eovaldi today in GPPs as a strong piece of leverage with upside.
- The largest negative deviations belong to Braxton Garrett who faces the Reds. Garrett has been strong most of the year and his baselines are mostly aligned with expectation. However, his recent samples are a different story. His BABIP is considerably low for someone with his profile and we should expect it to come back to earth soon. To clarify, Braxton has the profile of a strong pitcher and his true AVG is just a tad high, so any downside will likely be mitigated. All of that said, the Reds are a below average opponent and strikeout at a well above average rate. Overall you may want to avoid Garrett if his ownership gets too high in GPPs and utilize Reds power bats as a secondary stack or one off.