Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model and True AVG tables. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
Underlined phrases and words have links for extra information! All underlined players have a link to their Fangraphs page for ease of research!
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Model Results
Recap from the previous slate's post: It was a relatively lackluster day for the True AVG model yesterday. The key highlight came from a gem from Carlos Carrasco against the Marlins, as he went 7.2 innings with just four hits allowed and seven strikeouts. However, that game wasn't even on the main DFS slate! The other regression candidates did not, in fact, regress.
Below you'll find a recap of the DFS and Betting models. These models are powered by True AVG and other powerful metrics! so, If you are enjoy the True AVG report, you should try out a subscription to the site for access (Find an option here!).
MLB True AVG notable results
Leading things off is Nick Lodolo with the best True AVG (And largest positive deviations) on the day. Mr. Lodolo is the leader in season long True AVG (Found here) as well as the recent sample and looks like a real ace. He has terrific strikeout rates and a surprisingly high BABIP at .488. That number is high but it's especially high considering a relatively low groundball rate. The faces an Orioles team that struggles with LHP much more than RHP. Considering the True AVG, the significant positive deviations, and a winable matchup, Lodolo should be a priority today. Look to leverage him in GPPs and hit the over on his props in the betting markets.
Next up we have Josh Winckowski with the worst True AVG. We have seen very little upside from Winckowski so far this year and that doesn't appear to be changing any time soon. A below average strikeout rate and uninspiring walk rate is going to allow a lot of downside and the matchup today is brutal. He faces the Brewers and their incredible .224 ISO against RHP and projects to give up a lot of contact. Sometimes we have to think hard about things, but this one is pretty easy. Avoid Winckowski, stack the Brewers, and have a good Sunday.
Significant deviations to consider
- The largest positive deviations go to somebody we have written about in a different light: Andre Pallante. In previous editions of this report, Pallante has been somebody on the negative deviations list as well as the highest True AVG to attack. However, he's been hit so hard that the flip has switched and we have to start banking on positive regression. In the recent sample he has an ERA of 7.85 and an xFIP of just 2.87. Likewise, he has been wildly unlucky with BABIP, LOB rates, and home run rates in the recent sample. In sum, considering all of this and a matchup with the lowly Nationals, Pallante makes for a strong choice in DFS. You should also consider hitting his overs on strikeout props as well.
- The largest negative deviations, on the other hand, go to Shane McLanahan. The usual caveat applies here of an ace being in line for negative regression. To clarify, we should expect McClanahan to have a bad game of 5-7 hits and 3-5 runs allowed, but the strikeout rate will mitigate the downside. All of that said, he's been very lucky in BABIP and LOB rates in the recent sample and faces a tough opponent in the Guardians. Likewise, he should be more popular than he deserves. Overall, we should avoid McLanahan and look to roster a couple Cleveland bats in GPPs as a short stack.