Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model and True AVG tables. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
Underlined phrases and words have links for extra information! All underlined players have a link to their Fangraphs page for ease of research!
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Model Results
Recap from the previous slate's post: Some strong results from the model on Kyle Bradish being in line for positive regression. He finished the game with just three hits and one earned run to go with five strikeouts across five innings and a BABIP of .214.
Below you'll find a recap of the DFS and Betting models. These models are powered by True AVG and other powerful metrics! so, If you are enjoying the True AVG report, you should try out a subscription to the site for access (Find an option here!).
MLB True AVG notable results
The best True AVG on the day goes to Janson Junk. Granted, the sample size is small, but Junk has flashed some brillance in two starts this year. His strikeout rate is up a significant amount on him previous career data. This likely comes from a higher percentage of his pitch mix coming from his Slider, his best pitch, so hopefully that sticks. He's got a winnable matchup with the league average Athletics (95 wRC+) who strikeout at an above average rate. In sum, it's fair to have some concern on Junk sustaining his junk, but this matchup reads more towards his upside than downside.
Meanwhile, we find Miles Mikolas with the worst True AVG overall. He's also got one of the higher negative deviations on the day at -.064 so this can be treated as a regression spot as well. With low strikeout rates and regression coming, Mikolas is a ticking time bomb. All of that said, he faces the Cubs and their 82 wRC+ against RHP so it's hard to see an implosion here. All things considered we want to avoid Mikolas in this spot and find more upside and less downside elsewhere. Hit the unders on his prop totals while you're at it.
Significant deviations to consider
- The largest positive deviation to leverage is Nick Pivetta up against the Royals. With a .429 BABIP and 62% LOB rate, Pivetta has been tragically unlucky in the recent sample. His 9.38 ERA is nearly double his xFIP and the strikeout rates haven't dropped. Today he faces a Royals team that traded away a handful of their best players and should be one of the worst teams in the league through the end of the year. People will likely be scared of the recent performances, but you should take advantage of them. Leverage Pivetta in DFS and his the overs in the prop markets.
- The largest negative deviation, though rather tame today, goes to Kris Bubic facing the Red Sox. As noted, the deviation is pretty low when we want to attack someone, but it's the largest nonetheless. Even though his BABIP and LOB rates have been lucky he has still given up at least two runs in every start. While the Red Sox are looking awful, they are actually still league average against LHP and have respectable power. In conclusion, Bubic needs to regress and a spot with a power hitting Red Sox squad could do the trick. Make sure to avoid him in all formats and lean on Boston hitters in large field GPPs.