Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model and True AVG tables. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
Underlined phrases and words have links for extra information! All underlined players have a link to their Fangraphs page for ease of research!
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Model Results
Recap from the previous slate's post: While the results were pretty tame yesterday, we did have a predictable outcome with Miles Mikolas. His statline of eight hits and three ER was about in line with a bad start but not an implosion.
Below you'll find a recap of the DFS and Betting models. These models are powered by True AVG and other powerful metrics! so, If you are enjoying the True AVG report, you should try out a subscription to the site for access (Find an option here!).
MLB True AVG notable results
Starting off with the best True AVG (and largest positive deviations) on the slate we look at Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval was featured as a significant deviation in his last start (found here) and his luck continues to push him towards positive regression. His BABIP and LOB rate are both unsustainably high while his strikeout rates continue to be strong. Granted, he hasn't given up a home run in the recent sample, so we should expect some negative results coming in that regard. His matchup with the Mariners is tough, but their weakness is that they don't walk much. Sandoval should have no ownership in DFS, so utilize him for leverage in GPPs and hit the over for his strikeout props.
Moving along, we turn to the worst True AVG available going to Josh Winckowski. Here we have a pitcher reaching the dreaded “chode” status, with a walk rate at least equal to their strikeout rate. His baseline True AVG and actual averages allowed point to a bad pitcher continuing to be bad moving forward. He's got a matchup with the Royals who sport a 91 wRC+ and high strikeout rates against RHP. Considering Winckowski's low strikeout rates and concerning profile, this is a spot to stack up some Royals. In sum, use the Royals in DFS and take the unders on Winckowski's props.
Significant deviations to consider
- The largest positive deviation to consider (after Sandoval) belongs to Dean Kremer up against the Pirates. The recent sample shows that Kremer is way unlucky in BABIP but not with LOB or home run rates. His xFIP is two runs below his current ERA and his strikeout rates are popping up. Meanwhile, he's got a terrific matchup against the Pirates who have one of the highest strikeout rates in the league and a bottom five wRC+ to RHP. In conclusion, you'll want to prioritize Kremer for salary saving in DFS and hit the overs on his strikeout props.
- The largest negative deviation is for Tyler Mahle who faces the Blue Jays. It's worth noting the sample is small here, but his .179 BABIP in the recent window is doomed for regression. Likewise, he faces a Blue Jays squad that is pretty good at bringing death upon opposing SPs. They are second in the league in wRC+ against RHP at 132 and have as much power as any team in the league. They also added depth at the trade deadline with whit Merrifield, so they are even better than advertised. Overall, Mahle is somebody you'll want to avoid in all formats today and the Blue Jays should be on your radar.