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MLB True AVG Report – 8.07.2022

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Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model and True AVG tables. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.

Underlined phrases and words have links for extra information! All underlined players have a link to their Fangraphs page for ease of research!

What is MLB True AVG?

True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.

Model Results

MLB True AVG model results for 8.07.2022
MLB True AVG model results for 8.07.2022

Recap from the previous slate's post: The True AVG models had some gems last night including a fade of shane McLanahan against the Tigers. With the highest negative deviations on the slate he gave up six hits and four runs with just three strikeouts. Likewise, the models saw Chris Flexen as a risk and the Angels did very well against him. Overall a strong day for True AVG.

Passage from the MLB True AVG report from 8.06.2022
Passage from the MLB True AVG report from 8.06.2022

Below you'll find a recap of the DFS and Betting models. These models are powered by True AVG and other powerful metrics! so, If you are enjoying the True AVG report, you should try out a subscription to the site for access (Find an option here!).

Scoring Percentages from the MLB Models for Paydirt 8.06.2022
Scoring Percentages from the MLB Models for Paydirt 8.06.2022
Stack priority matrix from the MLB models for Paydirt 8.06.2022
Stack priority matrix from the MLB models for Paydirt 8.06.2022
MLB Game Betting model results for Paydirt 8.06.2022
MLB Game Betting model results for Paydirt 8.06.2022

MLB True AVG notable results

Leading things off we look to our friend Kevin Gausman with the best True AVG. this is his second start in a row being the best True AVG available (Last start written here) and he didn't disappoint during the last outing. Still, he has some room to improve moving forward with his xFIP over a run below his ERA. His matchup today with the Twins is neutral, as they are a league average team with above average power. Considering his terrific strikeout numbers and great True AVG, Gausman is the top priority in DFS. Likewise, Make sure to bet the over on his strikeout and outs props.

Moving along is Matt Manning with the worst overall True AVG on the day. While Manning has a solid pedigree, it hasn't translated to the majors. His strikeout rates continue to be underwhelming though everything else is in line. Granted, his recent sample is really short, so his True AVG should be taken with a grain of salt. He has a similar matchup to Gasuman against the Twins, as the Rays are a tad above league average in all facets. They do, however, strikeout at an above average rate. Manning doesn't project well here and should continue to be underwhelming. In sum, take the under on his props and utilize the Rays in DFS as a nice secondary option.

Significant deviations to consider

  • The largest positive deviation is for Frankie Montas going up against the Cardinals. This will be Montas' first start with the Yankees and he is in line to benefit from a turn of luck. His strikeout rates have continued to be great but the BABIP numbers have hurt him. He's got a spot against the Cardinals that is not ideal, however they are worse against RHP than they are LHP by a good amount. In fact, they have a strikeout rate 6% higher and a walk rate 4% lower in this split, so it's actually quite winnable for a good RHP. Look to utilize Montas here as a quality starter on a good DFS slate.
  • The largest negative deviation belongs to Cory Abbott with an honorable mention to Adam Wainwright. they face the Phillies and the Yankees respectively. The recent sample has been very kind to Abbott as he has just a .150 BABIP and a 100% LOB rate, both of which will surely not hold. The Phillies are much better against LHP so this matchup is actually a positive for Abbott overall. Meanwhile, Wainwright has been really lucky with BABIP and LOB rate as well and has a much tougher matchup against the Yankees. In conclusion, we should be fading both of these pitchers and making an effort to attack Wainwright.

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