Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model and True AVG tables. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
Underlined phrases and words have links for extra information! All underlined players have a link to their Fangraphs page for ease of research!
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Recap from the previous slate's post: The model had some great results with the large negative deviations yesterday. Both Abbott and Wainwright got slapped around by their opponents. The Phillies scored seven runs on seven hits against Abbott while the Yankees scored six runs on eight hits against Wainwright.
Below you'll find a recap of the DFS and Betting models. These models are powered by True AVG and other powerful metrics! so, If you are enjoying the True AVG report, you should try out a subscription to the site for access (Find an option here!).
MLB True AVG notable results
First up we are looking at Blake Snell as the best True AVG on the day. The last two starts for Snell have been phenomenal, with 18 strikeouts and just eight hits (two runs) allowed. However, his BABIP is still inflated, so we can expect slightly better results. Unfortunately, he's got a rough matchup as the Giants have a 132 wRC+ against LHP in the recent sample. Granted, they don't walk a lot, which is the main issue for Snell most starts. In sum, it's a good idea to utilize Snell in GPPs and take the unders on the Giants in the betting markets.
Next on the list is Anibal Sanchez with the worst True AVG available. At this point in this career, we know who Sanchez is, and who he is happens to be really bad. Likewise, his 5.27 xFIP, low strikeout rates, and avera BABIP all show mediocrity moving forward. He's got a relatively easy matchup today against the Cubs and their 86 wRC+ against RHP. this is mostly a dead spot, but make sure you avoid Sanchez even with the attractive opponent. You'll want to take the unders across the board here.
Significant deviations to consider
- The largest positive deviations go to Jordan Lyles facing the Blue Jays. It's been an up and down season for Lyles, but his full 2022 stats are pretty much aligned. His recent sample, however, shows some out of whack BABIP numbers and good strikeout presence. All of this said, the positive regression is only .052 and he's got a matchup with the best team in the league against RHP. This isn't a spot to use Lyles, but it does represent an opportunity to fade the Blue Jays and hope for a muted outcome.
- The largest negative deviation is for Yusei Kikuchi who is up against the Orioles. Kikuchi has come away from his IL stint with a solid ERA, but there are some warning signs. To clarify, he has been lucky with BABIP and home run rates in a broad sense. Granted, the Orioles are a league average team, but they do have strong power profiles against LHP who can give Kikuchi trouble. Overall, Kikuchi profiles as good but not as great as he has been, and we should bet on him regressing. Look to take his unders in the betting markets and avoid him in DFS.