Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model and True AVG tables. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
Underlined phrases and words have links for extra information! All underlined players have a link to their Fangraphs page for ease of research!
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Model Results
Recap from the previous slate's post: Mixed results overall for the model yesterday. Robbie Ray did indeed have a more lucky outing, but was left in too late and gave up a home run before getting pulled. On the other hand, Kyle Wright ended up getting unlucky in BABIP but as noted the Red Sox being bad prevented an implosion.
Below you'll find a recap of the DFS and Betting models. These models are powered by True AVG and other powerful metrics! so, If you are enjoying the True AVG report, you should try out a subscription to the site for access (Find an option here!).
MLB True AVG notable results
Getting started with things is our boy Nick Lodolo with the best overall True AVG. Lodolo has a strong recent True AVG and his season long numbers (Found here) are fantastic as well. He also has positive deviations working for him as his BABIP has been much too high. He's got a matchup with the Cubs who have a hilariously low 45 wRC+ against LHP and a 26% strikeout rate. In sum, everything points towards a solid outing for Lodolo in this spot. Prioritize him in all formats and take the over on his outs and strikeouts.
Next up the bottom of the True AVG models is occupied by Josh Winckowski. with low strikeout rates and baselines that point towards a bad profile, there's no reason to think Winckowski gets better moving forward. He gets to deal with the Orioles today who have a 118 wRC+ against RHP and are fighting for a playoff birth through the end of the season. When you consider a pitcher like this, you are mostly looking at their opponent and deciding if they can exploit his mistakes. In this case the Orioles are strong enough to do that, so we should stack them and hit Winckowski's unders.
Significant deviations to consider
- The largest positive deviations belong to JT Brubaker up against the Diamondbacks. Brubaker actually has the profile of a midrange starter with strong strikeout rates and acceptable advanced metrics. However, he has been very unlucky with BABIP and it's caused an inflated ERA. His matchup against the Diamondbacks is a positive one since they are overall below average though with above average strikeout rates. This is a good spot to find leverage in DFS as Brubaker will be very low owned and has a decent ceiling for a short slate. Utilize him to get a bit different and take the unders on the Diamondbacks.
- The largest negative deviations go to Edward Cabrera up against the Phillies. As you can see above, Cabrera has an actual average allowed of .000 in his most recent start. Meanwhile, on the season, he has just a .174 BABIP and 86% LOB rate which leads to an ERA nearly two runs below his xFIP. While he has above average strikeout stuff, there's a lot of issues caused by a walk rate above 10% and it's likely to bite him. While the Phillies are just above average overall, they have elite power potential. This is a spot that Cabrera could fall apart and give up a lot of runs. We should look to bet on regression here and utilize the Phillies in all formats.