Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model and True AVG tables. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
Underlined phrases and words have links for extra information! All underlined players have a link to their Fangraphs page for ease of research!
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Model Results
Recap from the previous slate's post: Had a very good outcome for the largest positive deviation on the slate. JT Bruabker experienced some strong positive regression, giving up just three hits (two runs) and finishing with six strikeouts.
Below you'll find a recap of the DFS and Betting models. These models are powered by True AVG and other powerful metrics! so, If you are enjoying the True AVG report, you should try out a subscription to the site for access (Find an option here!).
MLB True AVG notable results
The top of the True AVG models goes to Josh Sborz, but since he's an opener, we will look at George Kirby instead. Kirby has been fantastic this season and has increased strikeout rates in the recent sample. His True AVG, groundball rate, and strikeout rates all paint the picture of a top end pitcher. Granted, his home run rate will increase, but his floor is maintained even with that considered. He's facing the Rangers who are a league average team but with above average strikeout potential. In sum, this is an easy decision. You should prioritize Kirby in all formats and hit the over for his outs and strikeouts.
Moving along to the opposite side of the models we find Zach Davies with the worst True AVG. After returning from IL Davies was atrocious in all of strikeouts, walk rate, and runs allowed. His season long stats don't offer much optimism, as he is a below average pitcher no matter how you cut it. Meanwhile, he has to pitch in Coors today against a Rockies squad with a 113 wRC+ against RHP. There's no reason to consider Davies in DFS and you should stack against him in GPPs and cash games.
Significant deviations to consider
- Because of the size of this slate, we have a handful of positive deviations to consider: Patrick Sandoval, Pablo Lopez, and Daniel Lynch. Sandoval had a terrific game in his last start but still has an incredibly high BABIP. His opponent, the Twins, are league average against LHP and are a winnable matchup. Meanwhile, Pablo Lopez has a 5.95 ERA and 3.34 xFIP in the recent sample, which signals solid positive regression. He faces a league average Braves team but with above average power. Finally, Daniel Lynch has been phenomenal in terms of strikeout and groundball rates but has been notably unlucky with BABIP. He has the hardest matchup of the three against a Dodgers group with a 150 wRC+ against LHP. In conclusion, all three are viable in GPPs though Lynch is the most volatile.
- The largest negative deviations going to Tyler Mahle facing the Angels. Mahle has just a .171 BABIP in the recent sample, which will certainly correct itself moving forward. However, his home run rates are too high, so where he will get hurt by balls in play he will gain a lot in less home runs. Meanwhile, he's facing a below average LAA team that lacks power. We should expect Mahle to give up more hits but especially considering his opponent it shouldn't be a disaster. In sum, Mahle and the Angels should be avoided.