Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model and True AVG tables. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
Underlined phrases and words have links for extra information! All underlined players have a link to their Fangraphs page for ease of research!
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Model Results
Recap from the previous slate's post: Some terrific results from the True AVG models yesterday for Reid Detmers! He had the best True AVG and finished with five hits allowed, two runs, and nine strikeouts.
Below you'll find a recap of the DFS and Betting models. These models are powered by True AVG and other powerful metrics! so, If you are enjoying the True AVG report, you should try out a subscription to the site for access (Find an option here!).
MLB True AVG notable results
Going back to the well today with Kevin Gausman having the best True AVG on the slate. Outside of two blow ups a few weeks ago, Gausman has been fantastic with great strikeout rates and an xFIP of 2.50. Likewise, his BABIP is so high that he is actually expected to improve moving forward. His matchup today is relatively difficult against a Guardians team that doesn't strike out much and is slightly above average againt RHP. Regardless of the matchup, you should have a lot of interest in Gausman. In sum, if the projections (found here) still like him against this opponent, you should make him a priority in all formats.
The worst True AVG on the slate technically goes to Tommy Henry, but since he isn't a true starter we will look at Paolo Espino instead. Espino has allowed 4+ runs in three of his last five and at least one home run allowed in each so the recent stretch has been rough. Meanwhile, the Padres are the fifth best team in the league against RHP with a 130 wRC+. Considering the True AVG and quality opponent, you should be staying far away from Espino. Likewise, you'll want to stack up the Padres in DFS and hit their overs in the betting markets.
Significant deviations to consider
- There are not any drastic positive deviations to look into, but the highest goes to Jordan Lyles up against the Rays. This is an interesting situation, where Lyles has a high BABIP but drastically high LOB rates as well. His ERA is also 1.5 runs below his xFIP, so we should be expecting worse outcomes moving forward. His opponent today is league average with below average power numbers, so he's not getting any benefit there. Overall, this is a stay away for both sides.
- The largest negative deviation goes to Jameson Taillon who faces the Red Sox. Taillon has been super lucky in the recent sample with just a .161 BABIP and drastically high walk rates. Although his xFIP is only about a half run higher than his ERA, we should expect some blow ups moving forward based on his contact and walk issues. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are a below average team with above average power. Unlike the situation with Lyles, we should be looking to leverage the power bats on the Red Sox against Taillon. In conclusion, take the unders for Taillon and use a Red Sox secondary in GPPs.