Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model and True AVG tables. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
Underlined phrases and words have links for extra information! All underlined players have a link to their Fangraphs page for ease of research!
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Recap from the previous slate's post: Both large deviations from the models last night had drastic outcomes. Patrick Corbin ended up giving up just four hits (.188 BABIP) with five strikeouts and one earned run. On the other hand, Cabrera gave up six runs on five hits with just five strikeouts.
Below you'll find a recap of the DFS and Betting models. These models are powered by True AVG and other powerful metrics! so, If you are enjoying the True AVG report, you should try out a subscription to the site for access (Find an option here!).
MLB True AVG notable results
The best True AVG belongs to Brayan Bello. After being removed from the rotation for a couple weeks he came back against the Blue Jays and spun a gem. However, he still had a BABIP far too high in that start, and he has more positive regression coming. With terrific strikeout rates and a good pedigree, we should expect his xFIP of 3.77 to give some very strong performances moving forward. He faces the Twins today who are league average in all forms. In sum, look to use Bello in GPPs and prioritize his ceiling.
Moving along, the worst True AVG goes to Miles Mikolas. Granted, his True AVG of .288 is not terrible and is more along the lines of below average. Mikolas is a contact oriented pitcher that looks to mitigate damage rather than avoid it. Because of this, he rarely gets blown up and is hard to stack against. Likewise, he is facing the Reds who are a bad team with low power outputs. Overall this is just an avoid on all sides.
Significant deviations to consider
- The largest positive deviations technically go to Brayan Bello, but we already noted him as a priority. Instead we will look to Robert Stephenson up against the Brewers. Stephenson is a bullpen arm being stretched out right now. He went just two innings in his last start and should be expected a bit farther here. He's been very unlucky in terms of both BABIP and LOB rate and his xFIP is less than half of his current ERA. The Brewers are considerably better against RHP but are just above league average in wRC+ at 108. In conclusion, this is a volatile spot to target but there is upside if in that risk.
- Lastly the largest negative deviations go to Dylan Bundy facing the Red Sox. Over the recent sample he has just a .178 BABIP along with unsustainably low home run rates. Meanwhile, his xFIP is above 5.00 and his ERA is below 3.00 for a difference of over two runs. The Red Sox are a league average matchup but they do have above average power. Overall, Bundy isn't the kind of pitcher that can mitigate downside when things go wrong. This makes the Red Sox a strong stack in all formats and the unders for Bundy attractive.