NFL DFS 2023 Week 1 Thoughts and Notes

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It'll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

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NFL DFS main slate breakdown:

Team stats, rates, and touchdown projections

• The highest team total on the slate goes to LAC at 27 with BAL close behind at 26.50
• Lowest team totals are looking like HOU and ARI with ARI projecting a paltry 15.50
• Most dropbacks goes LAC, CIN, and then HOU (big passing gamescript)
• Most rush attempts goes BAL, CHI, and then ATL, WAS, JAX

For the most part, week one is about leaning into what you worked on all year and hoping you are right. There's a lot of edge to be gained in just holding your convictions and letting other people get big brained about stuff. Based on the above info, the best spots to attack in terms of stacks are LAC and CIN by a good amount with HOU offering an interesting angle and salary saving option. As far as rushing upside, it's interesting that most of the industry is not on guys like JK Dobbins and Khalil Herbert, who are both in spots with significant rushing opportunity.

Highest projected ownership

• With no Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely will be the clear top chalk today with a strong track record of success as a starter
• No QBs found in the top 10 ownership slots, so you aren't worried much about your stacks in that regard
• It's interesting that Ekeler is projected higher ownership than Mattison and Walker, a large shift from mid week
• Commanders DST will be by far the highest owned defense

The WR chalk here is mostly paired to the highest owned stacks in general for the week, with MIA, LAC, and CIN all being popular spots with high totals. The RB chalk is lead by Jamaal Williams who is getting a lead role with no Alvin Kamara available.

Overall slate notes

• I am mostly interested in the MIA, LAC and CIN stacks in terms of upside, I don’t really see myself paying down much
• The big exception here is with Anthony Richardson, who projects really well for his price thanks to his rushing upside, though I think I’ll just end up with him in cash instead of GPPs
• Joe Mixon and Rachaad White look like awesome RB GPP plays, and I have a lot of interest in JK Dobbins even though he doesn’t necessarily project especially well
• This week looks like a great time to load up on some fringe WR2s: Tyler Boyd, Quentin Johnson, and Jordan Addison are all too low owned for the spots that their teams are in
• I think a lot of people will be on Mims, which is justified, but Courtland Sutton has been a legit WR1 when Jeudy has missed time, so he’s definitely on the board
  
  Overall this slate is mostly about attacking the high total games and getting away from the chalk that looks overvalued based on circumstance. Guys like Jamaal Williams are in a pretty good position, but we don’t know the exact usage split or how that team will use him with Taysom Hill around. Likewise, situations like LAC and BAL with new OCs who should change the teams at a fundamental level should be prioritized because of the uncertainty.
  
  My plan is mostly to look towards building using the stands that the models want to take. I’ll use some direct leverage in the form of MIN stacks against Alexander Mattison and won’t touch the Commanders DST with a 10 foot fuckin pole.

NFL DFS Cash Game Core:

(Added after 12am EST)

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. Generally, you'll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.

QB – Justin Herbert
RB – Alexander Mattison
RB – Jamaal Williams
WR – Justin Jefferson
WR – Marvin Mims
TE – Isaiah Likely
DST – Commanders

NFL DFS GPP Core:

(Added after 10am EST)

This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it's worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.

QB – Justin Herbert, Anthony Richardson, Joe Burrow
RB – Joe Mixon, Rachaad White, Travis Etienne Jr.
WR – Justin Jefferson, Keenan Allen, Ja'Marr Chase, Courtland Sutton
TE – Luke Musgrave, Isaiah Likely, Tyler Higbee
DST – Whoever you want

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