Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It'll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!
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NFL DFS main slate breakdown:
Team stats, rates, and touchdown projections
- The highest team total on the slate is DAL at 28, the lowest is their opponent NYG at just 11.
- The highest game total on the slate is DET/LAC at 48.50, so another week without any totals above 50.
- Highest passing TD expectation is CIN at 1.90 with DAL close behind at 1.84.
- Highest rushing TD expectation is DET at 1.30 with BAL and SF relatively close at 1.24 and 1.19 respectively.
- Highest dropback expectation goes to WAS at 43.64.
Here are the top 10 overall stacks in median projection:
High ownership on CIN but an obviously strong stack with no Tee Higgins which opens up Tyler Boyd as a clean value option. People love the game environment there overall with HOU on the other side, so expect a lot of ownership there overall.
DAL and DET are not getting as much love this morning as I thought they would, so those make for some of the strong stacks in GPPs.
Sorting by team total, it’s more of the same:
We were able to find some nice hidden gems last week when looking at team totals in regards to price, but this week we don’t really have that luxury. The teams with the highest totals are expensive and relatively popular. The nice thing here is that with ownership spread out, we don’t have to worry about avoiding spots other than HOU/CIN if we want easy mode.
Based on macro views, we like CIN, DAL, and DET the most with some secondary interest in HOU and LAC.
Highest projected ownership
- There are three CIN players here: Burrow, Chase, and Boyd and it’s pretty unlikely that they all get there, so that’ll be a fun game to play.
- We also have the Cowboys combo of Pollard and the Cowboys DST getting up there in ownership which I talked about on the stream last night.
- The other combo here is Marquise Brown and Trey McBride.
If you just look at the above table it’s pretty clear what the popular spots are:
- People will be stacking CIN with a Tank Dell comeback
- People will be using Pollard with the Cowboys DST
- People will be stacking ARI with Kyler Murray back from injury
Granted most of this makes sense but now you have a great idea of what overall combos you should avoid. Or you now have the stone nuts in cash. It’s a matter of perspective I suppose.
Undervalued options
As far as the most underowned options go today, we are paying up after paying down last week. As far as most of the popular options go, they are fine, but they live in the midrange. Both Alvin Kamara and Keenan Allen are absolute targetshare gods at their respectively positions and command considerable ownership on certain weeks, but not this one.
Both of these guys project under 10% ownership while people are paying for guys like Ja’Marr chase and Amon-Ra St.Brown instead. They both make terrific additions to a HOU or a WAS stack and will help you build in some relative value to overowned combos.
Usage and expected fantasy points
A couple notes here on the lower owned options in this list:
- Alvin Kamara and Keenan Allen as mentioned above, way underowned.
- Saquon Barkley is in a terrible spot with Devito at QB, but he still scored 14 fantasy points last week and you’ve gotta think he ends up a safety valve for dump offs here.
- David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs both have basically no ownership and considering how run heavy the Lions are it’s fairly likely that one of them ends up paying off.
- Keaton Mitchell had a low snap count last week but still ended up with nine rushing attempts and a target, which meant for 10 opportunities on just 13 snaps.
So let’s go ahead and sort this by Ownership now instead:
- Joe Mixon as the highest owned player on the slate with CIN stacks being the highest owned stacks on the slate, I’m sure that will go well!
- Rachaad White up against the Titans DST, a spot that we have been fading RBs all year, also seems like it will go well!
- Arizona receivers paired with Kyler Murray who is coming off of major injury also seems like it will go well!
There’s a lot of spots this week that seem a bit sketchy. For the most part the chalk makes sense based on usage and expected fantasy point production, but just because it makes sense in a vacuum doesn’t mean that I have a bunch of confidence in it. This slate doesn’t have a lot of great game environments and the pricing is really efficient, so people are grasping at the best volume rather than playing for upside. It makes for a great week to play GPPs like a champion.
Overall slate notes
- Main stacks are mostly just DAL, DET, and CIN. I don’t love paying the ownership for CIN but I feel that I can get different at RB and it leverages the 30% of the field that is going to jam in Mixon chalk which I think is the worse side of this equation.
- Secondary stacks are LAC and HOU, and honestly HOU is going to be overowned here so I likely won’t touch them at all. The only other stacks I have relative interest in are WAS for the passing volume and ATL/ARI gamestacks because they are free and I can use Marquise Brown and Trey McBride in a unique way.
- I like a lot of the chalk but do think that people are afraid to go off the board on a week with efficient pricing. The best spot to do that this week in RB, and I think just jamming in low owned pairs there instead of eating the Mixon/White chalk is the best way to go.
- Something I think most people will not do is use Pollard and Lamb together, but those two can combine for a significant portion of the touchdowns and fantasy goodness in a game that DAL should do whatever they want. Going with Dak/Pollard/Lamb makes a lot of sense in large field stuff.
- Don’t play Bijan, let people keep paying the rake.
- The name of the game the last couple weeks has been really focusing on correlation over median expectation. When you have lower game totals, it’s better to try to nail the game that goes way over that total than it is to spread out and find raw outcomes. This week is no different, so going with QB/WR/WR/oWR/oWR or overstacking individual teams like DAL is what I’ll focus on the most.
NFL DFS Cash Game Core:
(Finalized after 12pm EST)
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. Generally, you'll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.
QB – Joe Burrow
RB – Joe Mixon
RB – Rachaad White
WR – Tank Dell
WR – Marquise Brown
TE – Trey McBride
DST – Cowboys DST
NFL DFS GPP Core:
(Finalized after 10am EST)
This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it's worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.
QB – Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray
RB – Alvin Kamara, , Tony Pollard, David Montgomery, Austin Ekeler, Brian Robinson
WR – Keenan Allen, Deebo Samuel, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Diontae Johnson
TE – Dalton Schultz, Sam LaPorta, Jake Ferguson, Evan Engram
DST – Whoever you want
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