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NFL DFS 2023 Week 3 Monday Main and Showdowns writeup

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It'll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

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NFL DFS Monday main slate breakdown:

Highest projected ownership

  • Joe Mixon projecting as huge chalk mostly because it's hard to spend your salary cap is pretty interesting condidering how bad the Bengals offense could possibly be tonight.
  • PHI looks like the most heavily overowned team on the slate by a longshot based on the contest sims.
  • Nowhere in site are TB options, which goes well in line with the contest sims finding them incredibly undervalued.

Overall slate notes

  • I mentioned the contest sims a couple times up above, and they have a clear stand on the slate with TB being the most undervalued option and PHI being the most overvalued.
  • In fact, Jalen Hurts is the worst play on the slate in that regard, which is obviously a bit of a hot take overall.
  • The Bengals will either have a half health Joe Burrow or a backup QB, both of which hurt the efficiency of this lineup overall and make them the worst option from a median standpoint in both the main slate and showdown contests.
  • The highest leverage option on the slate tonight is actually Rachaad White, so using him as much as you feel comfortable is advised.
  • It’s always fun when the field is heavily exposed to one side and the models here have the complete opposite take. The interesting part overall is that you can still get exposure to the PHI side of things so long as you use a heavier lean to the TB options. LAR stacks make a lot of sense as well, and locking in Puka with an insane role is necessary. The biggest thing tonight is trying to avoid all CIN options outside of the cheap ones. Outside of that, mix and match with leans towards TB and LAR and you are good to go.

TB vs. PHI showdown:

Captain exposures

Flex exposures

  • Similarly to what was written about the main slate, we see TB being the much higher value side to back in this showdown than the PHI side.
  • Jalen Hurts makes for the best captain, but Rachaad White and Mike Evans make for the most valuable FLEX options
  • In terms of dupe potential, I don’t think you’ll have to worry about much overall.

This showdown is pretty spread out even with two offenses with relatively condensed targetshares. The reason for that is the pricing is, all things considered, really good and it forces you to focus on only a select couple of high end options while leaving out other important ones.

The contest sims have a clear lean towards TB here and I agree with it. I think a 2-4 with Hurts in the captain slot is really interesting and gives you plenty of upside and ways to win while avoiding a handful of the PHI options. Likewise, a 4-2 with Either Baker or White at captain and Hurts in the FLEX makes a lot of sense as well.

LAR vs. CIN showdown:

Captain exposures

Flex exposures

This showdown is really straight forward and I don’t think you have to dig too far into the sims or models to build for it. Puka is a lock in every lineup you make. He can be captain or Flex it doesn’t really matter all that much, but you need to use him. Likewise, CIN is not healthy and Burrow is either going to play and be limited or be inactive with a backup taking his place. The only options you should consider from CIN are Ja’Marr Chase (an alpha) or Tyler Boyd (cheap). The best way to build is a 5-1 with LAR lean or a 4-2 with Chase and Boyd if you feel like CIN will be able to move the ball somewhat effectively.

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