Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It'll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!
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NFL DFS main slate breakdown:
Team stats, rates, and touchdown projections
- The Miami Dolphins (MIA) lead the slate with the highest team total at 31 against the Carolina Panthers, while the Cleveland Browns (CLE) sit at the other end with the lowest team total of 13.25.
- When it comes to passing touchdowns, the Dolphins (MIA) dominate expectations with 2.38 projected passing TDs. On the ground, the Philadelphia Eagles (PHI) are forecasted to have the highest rushing touchdowns at 1.31.
- From a volume perspective, the Los Angeles Rams (LAR) lead the way with a projection of 44.74 dropbacks. For those eyeing the running game, the Detroit Lions (DET) lead the pack with a projected 30.89 rushing attempts.
There are very few strong game environments this week. The highest O/U available on the main slate is just 48 points and LAR are a touchdown favorite, which doesn’t really speak to a super competitive script. The best games for upside are likely CIN/SEA and TB/DET where all four of those teams are happy to go up pace and pass to keep up. MIA stacks will not have a near high enough ownership level because of how highly owned Mostert will be this week, so they are a priority option as well.
Highest projected ownership
- As noted above, Mostert is going to be huge chalk. I actually think that he will be in the 45%+ range of ownership this week and while he is in a great spot and is good chalk, you should be considering what you need to do with the rest of your lineup to handle the ownership cost.
- Hubbard and Foreman are both value RB plays that I think will converge in ownership when the cards flip. I think both will end up in the 20-25% owned range. Frankly, Foreman is in the better spot by a considerable margin, but both guys come with some real downside even for a cheap price.
- Evan Engram chalk is weird, but it’s not as weird as the steam we are seeing on Kyle Pitts after just one week of the ATL offense passing at a league average clip. Both of them are very likely to be well overvalued here.
I mentioned this on the Saturday Stream last night, but I think that in any lineup you don’t have a MIA stack you should just lock in Mostert. The team total is too high and someone is going to score points, so you should just be eating that chalk. That said, you shouldn’t be eating that chalk AND Hubbard AND Engram. Probably just one of those three dudes in any given lineup.
Also, worth noting there is a lot of JAX/IND here and there has been quite a bit of chatter about that game this morning. I like the JAX side more for sure, but I think it’s worth noting that there’s a high bust potential in that spot. I think the options are too cheap and it’s fine for DFS but I would caution people that think it is an off the board spot with leverage gained. It’s not!
Overall slate notes
- Main stacks this week are: MIA, PHI, LAR, and then probably some overloaded game stacks of TB/DET and SEA/CIN.
- While I think Mostert is an incredible play, I also really like Kyren Williams and D’Andre Swift in the same price point, so mixing them into your scripts is important.
- I really like building from the mid range this week and trying to avoid the cheap RBs all together if I can. There’s enough cheap WR options that the models like to where I don’t feel the need to eat Hubbard/Foreman chalk in the majority of my lineups.
- I think you should probably just not play Hubbard at all outside of cash games.
- The one spot that I haven’t really reconciled is CHI, where the contest sims are all over them and Kmet is an incredible leverage play, but I just haven’t been able to talk myself into them as a top option.
- Adam Thielen is still about $1,000 too cheap and still not really that highly owned.
NFL DFS Cash Game Core:
(Finalized after 12pm EST)
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. Generally, you'll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.
QB – Matthew Stafford/Joe Burrow
RB – Raheem Mostert
RB – Chubba Hubbard/D'onta Foreman
WR – Christian Kirk
WR – Ja'Marr Chase
TE – Evan Engram
DST – 49ers/Vikings
NFL DFS GPP Core:
(Finalized after 10am EST)
This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it's worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.
QB – Jalen Hurts, Matthew Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa, Baker Mayfield
RB – Raheem Mostert, D'onta Foreman, , D'Andre Swift, Kyren Williams
WR – Nico Collins, Devonta Smith, Mike Evans, Adam Thielen, Tyreek Hill
TE – Cole Kmet, Dalas Goedert, Zach Ertz
DST – Whoever you want
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