Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It'll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!
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NFL DFS main slate breakdown:
Team stats, rates, and touchdown projections
- Highest game total today is MIA/NE, with MIA at around 9 point favorites and the highest team total on the slate at 27.50
- Other notable team totals: BAL (27.00), DAL (26.00), PHI (25.25), and for value HOU (23.50)
- Highest pass TD expectation on the slate is KC at 1.93, then HOU (???) at 1.77 and MIA at 1.69
- Highest rushing TD expectation is BAL at 1.70 then MIA at 1.50 and PHI at 1.33
- Highest dropback volume expectation is WAS at 42.70 then CIN at 41.55 and, for value, CAR at 39.88
This week I also added team totals to the team stacks range of outcomes on the site so you can have a better view of what I’m looking at when I talk about that kind of stuff. Here are the top Median projections with their team totals added:
A couple teams stick out automatically here: LAR and HOU. LAR is overpriced for their team total where as HOU is underpriced. Now, again, this isn’t the only thing that matters. We know that LAR has a consolidated target tree and the receivers can get there on receiving volume even if they don’t score touchdowns, but the touchdowns are vital for Stafford to get there as a QB, so you need to keep that in mind.
HOU on the other hand is grouped in there with the top medians at a $4k discount on average and more if you are looking at the top end. They should be a priority in most forms today.
Highest projected ownership
- Breece Hall is underpriced for sure. In week 6 he had 68% of the snaps, 63% of the rushing attempts, and 16% of the team targets.
- Most of this chalk actually looks pretty good, and nobody should be egregiously high owned here outside of maybe Breece who I could see hitting 35%-40%?
- Maybe the only piece of here that we aren’t in love with is Trey McBride, who had a boost in usage last week but still only had an expected PPR output of like 5 fantasy points because of how bad the Cardinals offense is.
- Jonathan Taylor looked really good last week and should take over full lead back duties this week, but the matchup sucks, the team total isn’t great, and if he ends up getting heavily steamed I’m not sure you want to match the field at 25%.
Undervalued options
There’s a lot of chalk on the midrange RB options this week and it’s making it so the more expensive options are seriously undervalued based on their team totals and TD equity.
- Christian McCaffrey at $9,200 on Draftkings is a steep price but the guy literally just broke the record for most consecutive games with a TD and the 49ers will likely lean into him with Purdy obviously still concussed and playing for some reason.
- Raheem Mostert will likely give up a little work to Jeff Wilson as he comes back and ramps up from injury but this MIA offense is a fuckin wagon with jet fuel and we should expect them to continue to score heaps of points, so there should be room for him to get there. Worth noting that his anytime TD prop is -145, second to only Christian McCaffrey (-215) on the slate.
- Alvin Kamara has an expected fantasy output of fucking 26.35 fantasy points in 3 full games. Lol
I just think that forcing these guys into a bunch of lineups is a good idea this week. There’s plenty of value to make it work and they all have terrific floors and expectations and don’t appear to have enough ownership.
Usage and expected fantasy points
The above is a table that I use to look at a couple different things, including ownership, expected fantasy output, and how good a players usage(utilization) has been. I think it’s fine to pay a price on both salary and ownership if a player has good utilization and expected outcomes, but I try to be a bit more careful of paying a price/ownership sum if they lack on either side.
It’s also nice to pick out players that aren’t getting enough ownership for their expected output and util. Kenneth Walker for instance coming in under 10% owned today but having strong marks in both.
The other thing to do is look at it in terms of highest owned options, see below:
Tank Dell looks like he’s pretty heavily overvalued here. He’s an instance where you want to use him in stacks but definitely want to avoid as a one off, because the ownership is high and he’s been running hot. This also illustrated why you should stay far the fuck away from Trey McBride. lol
Overall slate notes
- Main stacks: MIA, HOU, PHI with some interest in SEA and LAR.
- I think a lot of the chalk options today are pretty good, just don’t play Tank Dell as a one off and remove Trey McBride from your player pool.
- Having one of McCaffrey, Mostert, or Kamara in every lineup makes a lot of sense to me.
- I didn’t really mention Thielen much above but like… he’s still about $1k underpriced, and people still aren’t playing him? Idk, just keep printing us money dude.
NFL DFS Cash Game Core:
(Finalized after 12pm EST)
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. Generally, you'll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.
QB – Lamar Jackson
RB – Breece Hall
RB – Alvin Kamara
WR – Zay Flowers
WR – Tank Dell
TE – Trey McBride
DST – Tank Dell DST
NFL DFS GPP Core:
(Finalized after 10am EST)
This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it's worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.
QB – Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, CJ Stroud, Sam Howell
RB – Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Raheem Mostert, Breece Hall
WR – Tyreek Hill, Adam Thielen, Ja'Marr Chase, Zay Flowers, Terry McLaurin
TE – Evan Engram, TJ Hockenson, Dalton Schultz, Logan Thomas
DST – Whoever you want
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