NFL DFS: Paydirt Stacks and Stats Breakdown
Welcome to the stacks breakdown here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the best and worst stacks to focus on for your NFL DFS lineups. We will talk about the sportsbook and vegas information as well as the key pieces of information for the teams in good and bad spots. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt, but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and LevX format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
NFL Implied totals and slate outlook
The highest over/under this week goes to the LV/ARI game at 51. Likewise, the Raiders have the highest team total at 28.5, although the Rams and Broncos are close behind at 28 each. It's worth saying that these three teams are also three of the top five in implied passing TDs. The Raiders are implied at 2.77, Denver at 2.5, and the Rams at 2.09.
The lowest over/under sits at just 39 between the Browns and Jets. Granted, that low over/under doesn't mean the teams are worthless, as the Jets and Browns sit around the middle of the pack in implied passing TDs at 1.43 and 1.02 respectively.
Most of the games on this slate are plenty viable in GPPs. The worst game from an upside standpoint is likely NE/PIT, and that's mostly based on low passing rates for both squads.
NFL Stacks to prioritize
It's important to figure out the best spots to stack each weak, as correlation plays a large part in the upside of your lineups for NFL DFS. Here are the stacks that project the best in the models here at Paydirt:
Los Vegas Raiders: High total plug-and-play
The Raiders have the highest team total as well as the highest stack projection. The combo of Carr/Adams/Waller has a price tag of $20,400/$22,900 and a projection of 71.74/61.37. Meanwhile, the other expensive stacks all project considerably worse for a combo.
- The Raiders had the fifth most air yards in week one with 341.
- If you check out the new Aggressive Throw Index (found here) you'll see that the Raiders were 2.98% more aggressive when throwing than league average, which is vital for upside.
- Davante Adams had the highest marketshare of targets in the league in week 1 at 46% (17 targets).
This is an easy stack to build and while the ownership will be high it's worth building in all formats.
Baltimore Ravens: Buy the dip
We go right back to the Ravens this week (and likely many more weeks to come). Stacking Just Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews costs $13,800/$15,600 and projects for 47.43/39.6 giving solid upside for cost. Likewise, it takes care of the TE spot which is nice from a construction standpoint. If you go Bateman over Andrews, you end up with $12,900/$14,600 and 44.73/39.1, which might be better for Fanduel.
- Baltimore had a surprisingly high adjusted pass rate of 71.43%, which was sixth highest in the league.
- They also had the highest air yards per throw at 11.25 and were 7.53% above average in ATI.
- Lamar Jackson only rushed six times, but that doesn't mean much. In 2020, he opened the season with just seven rushing attempts and followed it with 16 the next game.
This stack should usually be built with just Jackson and one pass catcher, but double stacking in large field GPPs is valuable as well.
Washington Commanders: Cheap and undervalued
While people continue to act like Wentz is bad, he continues to be valuable in both real life and in fantasy. This week is no different, as the Commanders look like an interesting value stack. The algorithms like a Wentz/McLaurin/Thomas stack, which costs just $15,800/$19,900 and projects for 59.11/48.39. Even if you wanted to go Samuel over Thomas those numbers come out to $17,000/$20,400 and 55.5/45.39.
- If you aren't utilizing this stack, Antonio Gibson is a very strong play in all formats after racking up 14 carries and eight targets week 1.
- The Commanders had the third highest pass rate in the redzone in week 1 at 83.33% with five attempts.
- Curtis Samuel missed nearly all of 2021, but had 11 targets for a 27% marketshare in week 1, and may be on the upswing in 2022.
Considering the price and projection, this is a terrific value spot to exploit.
NFL stacks to avoid
While it's important to find the best stacks to use, it's equally as vital to figure out the best stacks to avoid. Here are the stacks with the largest negative LevX (leverage score) based on current ownership projections:
Detroit Lions: Overvalued with low upside
It's fair to say that the Lions have some pieces with upside, but the stack overall is lacking. Amon-Ra St.Brown had 12 targets for a 33% marketshare while DJ Chark and TJ Hockenson each had 21% and 18% respectively, which is nice! However, the Lions had just a 52% adjusted pass rate and Goff completed just 57% of his passes for 215 yards. So, while the Lions position players have upside, you shouldn't be stacking them with Goff. They each make much better secondary correlation pieces or comebacks to a WAS stack (mentioned above). Meanwhile, the ownership will be higher than deserved across the board. Overall, there are better spots to focus on in all formats this week.