NFL DFS: Paydirt Stacks and Stats Breakdown

Welcome to the stacks breakdown here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the best and worst stacks to focus on for your NFL DFS lineups. We will talk about the sportsbook and vegas information as well as the key pieces of information for the teams in good and bad spots. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt, but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and LevX format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.

NFL Implied totals and slate outlook

The highest over/under this week goes to the BUF/MIA game at 53. Following closely is MIN/DET and finally KC/IND at a round 50. Of these teams, the ones implied for the most passing touchdowns are MIN and KC at 2.78 and 2.43 respectively. On the other hand, the team implied at the least passing touchdown here is DET at just 1.34.

The lowest total on the slate unsurprisingly goes to CHI/HOU at just 39. Interestingly, a running back from that game may end up as significant chalk! Maybe just as interesting is the total of the GB/TB game sitting at just 42 overall. It’s very likely the lowest total of a game between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers in recent memory.

There are going to be some spots this week that are easy to cross off your list, while we look through some great spots for upside as well. Make sure to listen to the full game-by-game breakdown tomorrow for a couple stacks that won’t be noted here!

NFL DFS Stacks to prioritize

It's important to figure out the best spots to stack each weak, as correlation plays a large part in the upside of your lineups for NFL DFS. Here are the stacks that project the best in the models here at Paydirt:

Miami Dolphins: Popular plug-and-play

After the fireworks show last week between the Dolphins and the Ravens, Tua and company are sure to be on everyone’s radar. Granted, it’s to good measure, as the Dolphins skinny target tree and fast paced offense are perfect for stacking in DFS. Oddly enough, the Dolphins are outside of the top 5 in terms of price to stack on Draftkings. The combo of Tua/Tyreek/Waddle costs $20,500/$23,200, much more appropriately on Fanduel. Likewise, they project extremely well at 78.53/61.63.

Notes:

• Although their aggressiveness index is just league average, they have the fifth most air yards in the league at 637.
• Tyreek and Waddle combine for an average of 75% of the teams air yards and 60% of the teams targets.
• MIA is second in the league in adjusted pass rate at 70.83%.

This is an easy stack to build and while the ownership will be high it's worth building in all formats.

Los Vegas Raiders: Condensed and undervalued

Last week we bought the dip on the ravens, this week we buy the Raiders with a discount in ownership. The combo of Carr/Adams/Waller costs $20,100/$22,200 and projects for 74.49/61.23 which puts them in the same range as the Dolphins. It’s also worth noting that if you can stack a team with an elite TE, it’s a priority to do it since the opportunity cost is so high. The one downside to this stack is a possibly inept Titans group that doesn’t have a clear gamestacking one off.

Notes:

• Las Vegas is third in the league in adjusted pass rate at 70%, but just league average in the aggressive throw index.
• Davante Adams and Darren Waller make up 70%+ of the air yards for the Raiders and that number should be steady with no Hunter Renfrow this week.
• In week 2 Mack Hollins had 66 yards on five receptions and looks like a terrific value if you want to save money and avoid either Waller or Adams in your stack.
• Josh Jacobs may miss the game, and if he does, it will make Brandon Bolden a strong GPP play.

In conclusion, you’ll notice many similarities between the Raiders stack and the Dolphins stack, and the Raiders will likely be half as highly owned. People will likely be low on Raiders stacks after a let down, so this is a prime spot to take advantage of their injury riddled target tree.

Minnesota Vikings: Expensive in a strong game environment

The Vikings are coming off of a lackluster performance on national television and now get a terrific spot for upside. You’ll have to pay a hefty price, as the combo of Cousins/Jefferson/Thielen is $21,900/$23,100, but the projections are strong at 71.11/60.08. On the other hand, you could go with a stack of Cousins/Jefferson/Irv Smith which costs considerably less. That stack costs $19,100/$22,100 and projects for 67.09/53.56. The latter will be much more popular, but for good reason.

Notes:

• MIN is sixth highest in the league in adjusted pass rate at 67.50%, but second worst in the league in aggressiveness at 7.23% below average.
• While Jefferson/Thielen make up a whopping 80% of the air yards, they only combine for 45% of the targets.
• If you are avoiding this stack, Dalvin Cook is a strong RB option with 63% of the rushing attempts and a 15% targetshare.

There are certainly warts here unlike the MIA and LV stacks. The target tree is wider and the upside is relatively low. However, this spot represents the best gamestack with DET being a high upside and appropriately priced opponent.

NFL DFS stacks to avoid

While it's important to find the best stacks to use, it's equally as vital to figure out the best stacks to avoid. Here are the stacks with the largest negative LevX (leverage score) based on current ownership projections:

Cincinnati Bengals: Overvalued and outproduced

This is the second time already this season that I have dedicated to avoiding the Bengals. The numbers frankly just don't add up. They are expensive, with the stack of Burrow/Chase/Higgins at $20,800/$23,300 and their projections are middling at 52.63/45.41. They've got 558 air yards but an average air yards per attempt of just 5.37 (See the whole league here). They are league average in adjusted pass rate at 59.26%. And finally when it comes to production Ja'Marr Chase is fine at 19.65 PPR points per game, but he's more expensive than both Tyreek and Waddle. There is likely leverage to be gained here in the right format, but you are better off going elsewhere.