Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
Chalk DFS Plays:
- Zack Moss (54.15%)
- Tyreek Hill (28.21%)
- Rachaad White (27.34%)
- Christian McCaffery (25.36%)
- Courtland Sutton (21.08%)
For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Zack Moss
Jonathan Taylor is out for a couple of weeks. Previously, in his absence Zack Moss and some strong fantasy outings and is thus chalk this week. Not only does he have the increased role, but his price is flat out wrong given the circumstance. Furthermore, his median, ceiling, and top finish% are all the highest in his price tier.
Tyreek Hill
Tyreek will be popular but does look like the top option if spending up. CMC is a potential pivot with comparable median, ceiling, and top finish%. However, he also has comparable ownership. Something to consider here is how many lineups will include both, and what needs to be done to fit that. Keenan Allen at roughly 1/3 the ownership of both Tyreek and CMC is an amazing GPP play.
Rachaad White
Rachaad White with Zack Moss is going to be the highest owned RB combination on the slate today. However, while Moss looks like a virtual “free square” Rachaad White has some pivots worth considering. Moreover, White also not at the top of his price tier in any category other than ownership. Jahmyr Gibbs, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Breece Hall all look like stronger RB plays at lower ownership. Additionally, Nico Collins and Deebo Samuel can be considered in the FLEX.
Christian McCaffery
The conversation about CMC is much the same as Tyreek. The main difference here is that due to the slightly cheaper price tag on CMC, it opens up AJ Brown and Amon-Ra as potential high-upside pivot plays.
Courtland Sutton
Courtland Sutton has a solid projection, ceiling, and a fair price. However, so do a lot of other players in this price range. Notably, the majority of pivots are not at the WR position though. Javonte Williams would be the leverage spot if he were significantly lower owned, but their respective ownership is close. Ultimately, it looks like if you are left with a WR spot in this price tier Sutton is probably a fine chalk play to fill in rosters.
DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts
This is shaping up to be a good GPP week with some clear spots to get different. Based on ownership, a popular roster construction is going to be focused on midrange RBs and WRs with a cheap TE so that people can spend up for Tyreek and/or CMC. It's worth noting that in order to fit both of them, you will likely see a punt WR such as Elijah Moore with Brevin Jordan at TE. Therefore, if you decide to spend up at multiple spots just be mindful of that punt WR/TE combo. Players such as Rhamondre Stevenson, Nico Collins, Deebo Samuel, and Keenan Allen stand out as pivots for GPPs.
Good luck and let's bake some bread!
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