Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.
For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Captain ownership distributions
The highest positive leverage at captain on this slate goes to TJ Hockenson, followed closely by George Kittle. Both the premium TEs have about a 5% positive edge, with a 15% and a 12.70% exposure rate in winning lineups respectively. On the other end we have both QBs, Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins, as the most significant negative leverages at captain. Both sit at about -14% leverage gained and less than 10% exposure in winning frames.
FLEX ownership distributions
The highest positive leverage offered at FLEX is Chrstian McCaffrey at a +34% leverage gained. His 78% exposure rate is by far the highest on the slate, with the second highest being Brandon Aiyuk. The largest negative leverage offered here is, again, Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins. A pretty exploitable trend!
Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid
Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
Some notes on the above (bad) lineups:
- Cam Akers looks like he will be a popular captain in highly duplicated lineups based on his price and increasing workload
- The main group you need to be careful of in the FLEX is: McCaffrey, Aiyuk, Hockenson with one of the QBs (Purdy/Cousins)
- We are seeing a surprisingly small about of kickers or punts involved in these, which makes me think they actually offer a bit of leverage overall if used correctly
Based on what we saw from the contest sims, both QBs are overvalued but especially Brock Purdy, so if you start by keeping him out of lineups you’ll be in a good spot in terms of managing duplications. Likewise, we aren’t seeing near enough of either TE in the captain here, so based on the sims it’s a first or last kind of night.
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
This slate has a lot of build paths and the pricing is relatively efficient. That being said, it also seems like there is a clear edge in fading Brock Purdy or both QBs entirely.
The position players in this game have a lot of upside and TD equity and neither QB can outscore a handful of them in ceiling games. Especially with MIN sans Justin Jefferson, it’s not crazy to think that SF stomps here and the only players to get theirs are the SF running game and a single MIN receiver.
My big lean is on either a 4-2 or a 5-1 SF construction with a fade of the passing game. I love the idea of using both CMC and a backup RB to try to soak up all the rushing TD equity as well.
Some players that look overvalued:
- Brock Purdy
- 49ers DST
- Cam Akers (CPT)
Some players that look undervalued:
- Elijah Mitchell
- Kittle/Hockenson (CPT)
Good luck and bink a unique
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