Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.
For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Captain ownership distributions
- The highest positive leverage offered at captain tonight is Joe Burrow at a +6.77% leverage point over the field
- The highest negative leverage offered at captain tonight is Joe Mixon at a -4.5% leverage point under the field
There were varying results when it came to positive leverage in the runs I went through, including runs with Ja’Marr Chase and Lamar Jackson offering the best marks. Those three players are the key to this slate regardless of captain or FLEX, but the way that you use them dictates a lot of how you want to build out the FLEX combos.
On the other hand, Joe Mixon was a consistently negative offering at captain and didn’t show as a top 3 option once in the runs I did. You can safely remove him from your captain pool.
FLEX ownership distributions
- The highest positive leverage at FLEX goes to Ja’Marr Chase and Lamar Jackson, each well over 20% better than the field is giving them credit for.
- The highest negative leverages go to Evan McPherson and Mark Andrews, who are both consistently negative sources of leverage at -10% under the field.
There are some interesting conclusions drawn from this. The models view the value had from the receiving and RB options as more valuable than that of the Bengals kicker, and because of how run heavy the Ravens offense is, Andrews ceiling doesn’t compete with that of the other expensive options.
Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid
Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
These ownership numbers are really high, you need to be cognizant of your duplication mitigation tonight for sure.
Looking at the captains that should have the highest duplication counts, we see lots of really cheap options as well as both defenses. The FLEX combo that you should be avoiding is looking like Lamar/Chase/Mixon/Burrow, as that combo is very prevalent in the lineups above. Both Gus Edwards and Tyler Boyd look to be main sources of value to fit the big FLEX combo, so steering clear of one or both can help you in mitigating dupes.
We really don’t see a lot of the third tier receiving options here, with OBJ and Trent Irvin both mostly absent (outside of the side OBJ Captain lineup) so looking to add them into your mix can help a lot towards win equity.
This slate is really just going to come down to the third tier options. Jackson/Chase/Burrow should all be high owned and deserve to be in the vast majority of lineups. Avoiding Joe Mixon is the easiest (and most +EV) way to add qin equity and lower dupes.
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
The Ravens offense has been scoring really well lately, but very little has come on the back of Lamar Jackson. In this spot against a division rival, we don’t usually see offenses tick up and I would think we see more of the same from the Ravens, who have been spreading the offense around and finding a lot of success.
On the other side of the ball, the Bengals really didn’t look all that great until late last week and there’s going to be inconsistency with Chase’s back issue and no Tee Higgins. I think there’s a clear case for a more run-centric gameplan here if they get a lead, especially considering the short week and window.
All that said, I have a couple leans:
- Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Ja’Marr Chase are where you start, bar none. There’s going to be opportunity to get off of them if need be, and if you do that I would be getting off Chase for his back issues, but I think all three of those guys are priorities.
- I love OBJ in this spot, and I think he makes for one of the best plays on the slate. They have been ramping up his involvement in the offense in the last couple weeks and he’s looking better and better.
- I would be looking to build for a CIN lean, but that’s mostly just because it’s the more affordable side.
Some players that look overvalued:
- Joe Mixon (CPT)
- Evan McPherson
- Keaton Mitchell
Some players that look undervalued:
- Ja'Marr Chase (CPT)
- OBJ
- Lamar Jackson (should be 100%, won't be)
Good luck and bink a unique
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