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NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Bills vs. Broncos

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link:

Captain ownership distributions

  • The highest positive leverage is offered by Tyler Base, with an exposure rate in winning lineups of 8.62% and a projected ownership of 4.89%.
  • The highest negative leverage offered at captain is from Josh Allen, who has a projected ownership in the slot of 23.56% which is 6.72% over his exposure rate.

Through a handful of runs the most consistent things in terms of captain leverage offered were Tyler Bass as positive and Josh Allen as negative. We also saw plenty of Gabe Davis and Dalton Kinkaid captains with the most positive leverage, so the gist here is to use a secondary Bills scoring option and avoid paying up for Josh Allen at captain.

FLEX ownership distributions

  • The highest positive leverage at FLEX goes to Stefon Diggs, which I’m pretty sure I have written every single Bills showdown this year.
  • The highest negative leverage goes to Khalil Shakir and James Cook, who are both just under 12% overowned in regards to their projected ownership and exposure rates.

A really interesting note here is the Bills DST was consistently negative leverage in runs but the Broncos offense was consistently positive leverage. It’s clear that the Bills DST is overvalued here while the Broncos DST is undervalued, which isn’t a dynamic we get very often in showdowns. Typically both DST options are overvalued, so you have to like the DEN D here.

The kickers are both positive leverage pretty consistently, with Lutz being overvalued in a handful of runs but not very often.

I take no pleasure in saying that kickers and DST are optimal once again. Thoughts and Prayers.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

These are some pretty high ownership numbers, which means that we have to be extra careful of duplication in this showdown. We usually see the high end of ownership optimals in the 220-225% sum ownership range and we have around 20 lineups that hit that threshold tonight.

The most common FLEX grouping here is Allen/Diggs/Wilson/Williams, with some Kincaid mixed in. Unfortunately, the majority of that combo makes sense and each piece offers consistently positive leverage at the FLEX on an individual basis. You’ll have to think about gameflows and extra ways to mitigate dupes since the best plays will have relatively high ownership.

A couple ways of doing this are with Gabe Davis or Jerry Jeudy instead of Javonte Williams, as well as introducing the DEN DST into the lineup in turn of a kicker. You could also focus on having an expensive captain like Jerry Jeudy or Gabe Davis instead of the cheap captains that will produce large amounts of duplications.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

I like this showdown, although I don’t love it for large field contests. I think a lot of the ownership is good ownership and the way to build will be finding small edges and in roster construction and nailing the gameflow.

I also think that people are lower on the Broncos offense than they should be, and it represents a nice opportunity to go heavier there with a 4-2 DEN lean. Focusing on Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Russell Wilson rather than focusing on Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Gabe Davis is an easy way to build a unique path with upside and allows you to eat ownership where it matters with the auxiliary pieces.

My favorite way to build here is a 4-2 DEN lean with Josh Allen as a priority over Stefon Diggs.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Josh Allen (CPT)
  • Khalil Shakir
  • Bills DST

Some players that look undervalued:

  • DEN Stacks
  • Stefon Diggs

Good luck and bink a unique

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