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NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Bills vs. Jets

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night's NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup's projection and ownership.

Main Points:

  • Aaron Rodgers is about to be real bummed about switching conferences
  • Stefon Diggs is going to be undervalued tonight as a FLEX option, you should take advantage
  • Avoid general combos with Deonte Harty if you play him, or just fade all together, but he’s the biggest decision you’ll make

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link:

Captain ownership distributions

Captain exposures and ownerships are very efficient tonight, with no one better or worse than 6% off the projected ownership in terms of exposures. Greg Zuerlein (NYJ kicker) and Stefon Diggs both offer the most positive leverage at captain, with their edge gained being 5.50% and 4.77% respectively. On the other hand, Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers offer the least leverage at -6.62% and -4.84% even at relatively high exposures.

FLEX ownership distributions

Turning to the FLEX view, we see a lot of the same, but with a clear value on the field. Stefon Diggs is projecting for modest ownership tonight at 33% in the FLEX, but the exposures have him at nearly 59%. He has a wild 25% edge here. Even if ownership projections are low, it's unlikely he ends up 60% here and should be a priority in the FLEX. Towards the bottom we have a very popular play in Deonte Harty, who offers incredible value but appears to be overvalued even farther.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

  • The free square today is going to be Josh Allen, even if he offers a touch of negative value overall
  • Deonte Harty being overvalued in interesting and will offer a large amount of leverage to those who avoid him though both direct and indirect leverage
  • Both kickers offer good positive leverage based on their exposures, so plugging them in with negative leverage counterparts can help even things out

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

Of a sampling of the highest owned optimals for tonight, there are four players in every single lineup: Josh Allen, Stefon diggs, Garrett Wilson, and Deonte Harty. You do get some Aaron Rodgers, but he appears to be the “odd stud out”. Based on the exposures and leverage tables above, it would make the most sense to get away from Harty tonight. It will help you manage duplicates without much opportunity cost.

So long as you avoid that combo of players though, you'll be looking good in terms of dupe counts. Likewise, using Diggs at captain is a high upside route towards lower dupes.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

You should mostly just continue to be worried about usage and biases. The biggest piece to this showdown is what to do with Deonte Harty. You can play him in unique ways, like playing him at captain or playing him without Josh Allen, but he doesn’t project as a super valuable piece in the contest sims and the opportunity cost is high. My lean is fading, but you gotta do what you gotta do, boo boo.

Some players that look overvalued:

  • Deonte Harty
  • Josh Allen (but like, you should play him)
  • Aaron Rodgers

Some players that look undervalued:

  • Stefon Diggs (FLEX)
  • Greg Zuerlein (CPT)
  • Allen Lazard (CPT)

Good luck and bink a unique!

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